FIELD GUIDE · NINE KINDS OF HARD CHEMISTRY, AND WHAT A BUYER PAYS FOR
Custom Chemistry Makers
A custom chemistry plant is worth more than its reactors when it holds a permit, a skill, and a qualified customer that a buyer can't rebuild quickly: about a year at the fast end, and years or decades for a fab, implant or defense approval. I sort the US makers here by that skill. End markets drive demand, but those three things set the price. Two demand stories run through it: the US rebuilding its defense chemicals, and the AI build-out pulling on chip materials and cooling fluids.
Nine skill segments, read through the three buyers that share the same reactors: pharma, industrial tech, and agro. Built from permits, filings, releases, and the deal tape. Current as of October 11, 2026.
OCTOBER 20261
AGA·DWG / SHEET 2 · PART 1 · THE MAP
August GraceADVISORY
PART 1 OF 4 · THE MAP
The map
What a custom chemistry plant is, who buys from it, the forces moving it, and my ranking of the nine skills.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com2
AGA·DWG / SHEET 3 · FROM THE NOTEBOOK
FROM MY NOTEBOOK · WHAT I'M TRYING TO FIGURE OUT
This is a page from my research notebook. I'm trying to work out what a custom chemistry plant is worth beyond its reactors.
From the outside, fine chemistry, pharma contract manufacturing, and toll plants look like one market. They share reactors, chemists, and vocabulary. I've spent a lot of my working life around plants like these, and I kept noticing that buyers don't pay for them the same way. So I started writing down why.
THE QUESTIONS I'M WORKING THROUGH
What can't a buyer rebuild?
Is it the permit, the skill, or the qualified customer? Does a US address earn anything on its own? What happens to a permitted site when the rules shift, or when the equity runs out first?
WHY I'M WRITING IT DOWN
In the open, so you can check it
Curiously Optimistic is my open notebook on chemicals, materials, growth, teams, and AI in industrials. Every number here comes from a filing, a register, a permit, or a release, dated on the sheet. Nothing from a client engagement shows up.
HOW TO READ IT
Start with the map
Sheet 4 is the plain-English primer. The grid (sheet 11) and the dashboard (sheet 14) are the map, and my ranking (sheet 18) is my ranking. Each of the nine segments runs in the same order and ends with my call.
WHERE I MIGHT BE WRONG
I'm curiously optimistic about US custom chemistry, and I might be wrong on any call in here. Where a number is soft, I say so. If you see something I've missed, tell me which sheet and what the record says. When I change a call, I'll say which one and why.
Source: my notes, Oct 11, 2026. The questions and the reading order are mine, not a document. Disclosure: I also work with the U.S. Critical Chemistry Coalition.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com3
AGA·DWG / SHEET 4 · START HERE · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
START HERE · IN PLAIN ENGLISH
Drug, tech and crop companies all buy from the same kind of plant. What the plant is allowed and able to run is what sets its value.
A custom chemistry maker runs a reaction to someone else's recipe. The product might end up in a pill, a chip, a missile, a battery, or a crop spray. The reactors look alike. What differs is the hard chemistry the plant is allowed to run, the step in the chain it works at, and who audits it.
THE PHARMA BUYER
Buys a qualified process
A drug company outsources an ingredient. The plant answers to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and switching suppliers takes a year or more.
THE INDUSTRIAL TECH BUYER
Buys a specified material
Chip makers, aerospace and defense, battery and cooling companies, coatings and adhesives. They qualify the material and the site, then stay. That takes about a year for a new aerospace line and years for a fab or an implant.
THE AGRO BUYER
Buys an intermediate at a price
Crop-protection companies outsource steps of a route. Long contracts, big batches, and the most price pressure of the three.
THE SKILL
What the plant can run
A skill is a kind of hard chemistry a plant has the equipment, the people and the permits to run. Some are a chemistry (fluorine, silicon), some a condition (high pressure), some a permit (hazardous, licensed). This guide has nine.
THE STEP
Where in the chain
Building blocks and reagents; intermediates and starting materials; actives and materials.
THE QUESTION
What is the plant worth beyond its reactors?
The skill and the step decide it. End markets drive demand, but a buyer pays for what it can't rebuild.
MY READ
Everything after this sheet rests on one idea: a buyer of a custom chemistry business pays for the row the plant sits in and the step it works at. India and China show up in a column as competitors, because even with tariffs the competition is global: no disclosed deal has paid for a US address without a skill or a license at it (sheet 10). India also shows up as a buyer: Novopor bought Pressure Chemical in Pittsburgh (May 2025) and Anupam Rasayan bought Jayhawk in Galena, Kansas (closed Feb 2026).
Source: August Grace read, Oct 11, 2026 (judgment, not a document); Novopor announcement on Pressure Chemical, May 7, 2025; CABB on completing the Jayhawk sale, Feb 2026.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com4
AGA·DWG / SHEET 5 · WHERE THE MONEY WENT · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
WHERE THE MONEY WENT · DEALS, NEW PLANTS AND GRANTS
Most of the money went to finished products and to the hazardous and licensed plants. The middle of the chain got the least.
THE SKILL
BUILDING BLOCKS AND REAGENTS
INTERMEDIATES AND STARTING MATERIALS
ACTIVES AND MATERIALS
1 Fluorine and halogens
Reagents, F2, TFA
Fluorinated intermediates
Refrigerants, fluids, anesthetics
2 Organometallics
Grignard, boranes, metal alkyls
Coupling steps
Catalysts, precursors
3 Silicon
Silanes, siloxanes
Silylating agents
Fab precursors, silicones
4 High pressure
Specialty amines
Hydrogenated, alkoxylated
Surfactants, performance
5 Polymers and CASE
Monomers, photoinitiators
Oligomers, resin intermediates
Resins, prepregs, adhesives
6 Hazardous
Nitro, cyano blocks
Isocyanate, nitro, phosgene-derived
Crop actives, energetics
7 High purity
Reagents, catalog
Catalyst salts, precursors
Electronic-grade acids, salts
8 Licensed handling
Controlled intermediates
Scheduled, potent intermediates
Controlled API, HPAPI, radio
9 Modality synthesis
Amino acids, amidites, lipids
Protected fragments
Peptide and oligo API
money went here (deals, capex, grants, 2016 to 2026) some little or none disclosed
MY READ
Shading is my read of the deal tape and capex announcements on each segment's deals sheet. The right-hand column is where strategics pay (Versum, Gelest, Noramco, BIOVECTRA). The middle column is where China dependence sits and where public money is now going. The left column is a catalog business the Asian houses are commoditizing.
WHERE I'D LOOK
Rows 6, 8, and 1
Permits that can't be rebuilt, in the column where strategics pay.
WHAT'S THIN
The middle column
Where China dependence sits and public money is arriving; thin US bench.
WHAT I'D AVOID
A reactor with no row
Capacity sold on its address. No disclosed deal has paid for it.
Source: August Grace read, Oct 11, 2026 (judgment, not a document). Evidence by segment on sheets 32, 41, 46, 53, 59, 69, 78, 86, and 94. Row 5, CASE, means coatings, adhesives, sealants and elastomers. In this guide it covers two kinds of plant: makers of the specialty molecules behind them (monomers, photoinitiators, oligomers) and formulators that mix those into resins, prepregs and adhesives (sheet 57).
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com5
AGA·DWG / SHEET 6 · THE GUIDE ON ONE PAGE · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
THE GUIDE ON ONE PAGE · MY GRADE FOR EACH SKILL
The whole guide on one page. My top grades go to permits nobody can rebuild quickly.
Sources: grades and comparables from sheet 18; step contents and money dots from sheet 5, my read of the deal and capex tape on sheets 32, 41, 46, 53, 59, 69, 78, 86 and 94; the middle-step hypothesis from sheet 13. August Grace read, Oct 11, 2026 (judgment, not a document). CASE is coatings, adhesives, sealants and elastomers; row 5 covers the makers of the molecules behind them and the formulators (sheet 57).
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com6
AGA·DWG / SHEET 7 · TEN YEARS OF DEALS · AS OF OCT 13, 2026
TEN YEARS OF DEALS · ONE ROW PER SKILL, SIZED BY PRICE
60 deals in ten years. A buyer or seller stated a multiple on only ten of them.
Sources: segment tapes on sheets 32, 41, 46, 53, 59, 69, 78, 86 and 94, and the cross-segment tape on sheets 99 and 100, each row dated to its own release or filing. M&A rows only; capex, grants, Army awards and pre-2016 deals left out. Bands use the stated currency without FX. Curium is dated 2026 only and drawn mid-year. The bottom lane holds deals that appear only on sheets 99 and 100. Gelest and Pressure Chemical sit on two lanes and count once.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com7
AGA·DWG / SHEET 8 · PICK YOUR PATH
WHO ARE YOU · START WITH YOUR QUESTION
Four kinds of reader, four places to start. Each path ends in a decision you can act on.
How to read a sheet: the headline is the point. The gold phrase is the claim I'd defend. "My read" is judgment and says so. Sources sit at the bottom of every sheet with their dates. Each segment runs in one order: opener, size, why it earns more, how they get paid, who plays, deals, what to watch, my call. The shorter segments skip what doesn't earn a sheet, each deal tape states its own window, and terms live in the glossary (sheet 107).
TEN MINUTES
Sheets 11, 13, 14, 18
The grid, which step pays best, the dashboard, and where I'd put money.
AN HOUR
One segment end to end
Pick the row you own or want to own and read every sheet in it.
A DAY
The whole guide
Then send me the sheet you'd argue with.
Source: August Grace read, Oct 11, 2026 (judgment, not a document).
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com8
AGA·DWG / SHEET 9 · THE BIG PICTURE · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
THE BIG PICTURE · TEN YEARS OF US CUSTOM CHEMISTRY
Jobs in US custom chemistry rose 12% in nine years, and the number of sites rose 48%. The plants got smaller.
SITES
3,052 to 4,511
Establishments across the three codes, 2015 to 2024, up 48%. The average site fell from 37 to 28 employees.
SCALED TO GDP
5.3 to 4.7 basis points
The three codes' wage bill as a share of nominal GDP, 2015 to 2024. The industry grew; the economy grew faster.
NEXT DOOR
Pharma manufacturing +25% (to 2025)
NAICS 3254 employment rose from 280k to 351k, 2015 to 2025, more than twice the custom-chemistry pace.
MY READ
More sites, smaller sites, slower than the economy. That's a market that splits up as it grows, which is why each bench is a dozen small companies, not three big ones. On China: its chemical-park shutdowns (Xiangshui was closed for good in 2019) and then Covid did help. Jobs in the three chemical codes rose about 9% from 2017 to 2022, then went flat (up 1% to 2025). But US basic-chemicals output fell over the same years (Fed index 100 in 2017, 93.6 in 2025), and chemical imports from China rose 17% from mid-2018 to mid-2021 (ACC). So I read it as more people and more sites here, not clearly more share.
Sources: BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, annual averages, private, NAICS 325199, 325180, 325998, 3254, 2015 to 2025; BEA via FRED, series GDPA, nominal GDP 2015 to 2025; Federal Reserve G.17 via FRED, series IPG3251S, basic chemicals output (2017 = 100), 2015 to 2026; American Chemistry Council with Trade Partnership Worldwide on Section 301 tariffs, Dec 6, 2021; Xinhua on the closure of the Xiangshui chemical park, Apr 5, 2019.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com9
AGA·DWG / SHEET 10 · WHY I SORT BY SKILL · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
WHY I SORT BY SKILL, NOT BY END MARKET OR COUNTRY
I sort plants by the chemistry they can run. That's what a buyer is paying for when a plant changes hands.
CUT
WHAT IT SORTS BY
WHAT IT MISSES
WHERE THIS GUIDE USES IT
By end market
Who the customer is: pharma, agro, electronics
End markets drive demand, and I track them. But one plant sells into several, so the end market can't tell two plants apart
As the three buyer columns on the grid, and on every segment's size sheet
By geography
Where the plant is: US, India, China, Europe
No disclosed deal has paid for an address without a skill or a license at it. Location is a cost line and a tariff line
As a competitor column, and in the forces
By regulation
GMP or not; FDA, DEA, NRC
Treats a phosgene permit and a silane catalog the same if neither is GMP
Folded into the licensed-handling segment and the why-it-earns-more sheets
By skill (this guide)
The hard chemistry the site is permitted and equipped to run
Market size: there's no public total for any skill. Each segment names its proxy
The spine: nine segments, one pattern
WHY THIS MATTERS TO YOU
If you're valuing or selling a plant, compare it with plants that run the same chemistry, not plants that serve the same customer. End markets tell you where demand is heading. The skill and the permit tell you what a buyer will pay for the site. It's also how an operator, a sponsor and a permit writer all describe the same business.
FOR A SPONSOR
Screen by row
A hunt list by permit and chemistry finds sites a sector screen never shows.
FOR AN OWNER
Name your row
Say which skill you run before you say which customers you serve.
FOR A BANKER
Price the row
The comps that matter are the other plants in the row, whatever they make.
Source: August Grace read, Oct 11, 2026 (judgment, not a document).
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com10
AGA·DWG / SHEET 11 · THE GRID
THE GRID · HOW I MAP THIS MARKET
Each row is a kind of chemistry. Each column is a step in the chain. Find a plant's box and you know what a buyer is paying for.
Peptide and oligo API, lipid nanoparticle components
Pharma
MY READ
Every independent maker worth owning sits in one or two rows and sells across every column. The three buyers (pharma, industrial tech, agro) buy across the grid. They don't define its rows. Click a row to go to its segment.
Source: August Grace read, Oct 11, 2026 (judgment, not a document). The grid is my judgment; evidence for each row is in its segment.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com11
AGA·DWG / SHEET 12 · THE THREE BUYERS · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
THE THREE BUYERS · WHAT EACH ONE PAYS FOR
Same reactors, three kinds of customer. Pharma pays for the filing, tech pays for the spec, and crop companies pay for price.
PHARMA
INDUSTRIAL TECH
AGRO
What it pays for
A filed, inspected process it can reference (DMF), containment, licenses
A material that meets its spec and a site it has qualified: fabs, airframes, batteries, adhesives
An intermediate at a landed cost, on a long contract
The gate
FDA inspection; about a third of US custom sites run to GMP, and demand for them is rising
Customer qualification: about a year for a new aerospace line, years for a fab or implant, decades on defense programs (sheets 44, 57, 65); CMMC in DoD contracts from Nov 10, 2025
The customer's audit; EPA registration sits with the crop company
Batch and complexity
Kilos to tons, many steps, potent or controlled
Grams to tons, purity and consistency first
Tons, fewer steps, cost per kilo
Contract length
Life of the product once filed; a change of maker is a regulatory supplement (my read on timing)
Life of the program; a qualified supplier rarely moves
Multi-year supply agreements; FMC plans a 35% cost cut on $1bn of high-cost-plant products by 2027
China posture
BIOSECURE enacted Dec 18, 2025; WuXi on the 1260H list Jun 2026, and still growing 21%
CMMC and ITAR; Versum, CMC, and KMG bought by Western strategics
Price-led; FMC cites $1bn of sales from high-cost plants and generic pressure
Tariff
Section 232: 100% on patented, 15% cap for the EU, Japan, Korea, and Switzerland, generics outside "at this time"
Not a pharmaceutical article; CHIPS grants on the fab side
Not a pharmaceutical article; FMC expects a $20m tariff headwind in 2026
MY READ
Pharma is one buyer of three. When a plant sells to two of these buyers, value each side on its own terms: the pharma side on the filings, the industrial side on the qualifications, the agro side on the contracts. How long a qualification takes depends on how differentiated the material is and how tightly the customer's spec locks in the source, so a year is the floor, not the barrier.
Sources: SOCMA, 2026 Contract Manufacturing Outlook release, Oct 23, 2025; CMMC Program final rule, 32 CFR 170, Oct 15, 2024; DFARS CMMC rule, Sep 10, 2025; Latham & Watkins on the BIOSECURE Act, Dec 2025; Holland & Knight on the 1260H listing, Jun 16, 2026; WuXi AppTec 2025 results release, Mar 23, 2026; Proclamation 11020, 91 FR 18183, Apr 9, 2026; CBP CSMS 70054007, Sep 28, 2026; FMC 4Q25 earnings transcript, Feb 5, 2026.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com12
AGA·DWG / SHEET 13 · WHICH STEP PAYS · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
WHICH STEP IN THE CHAIN PAYS BEST, AND WHY
For a US independent, I think the middle step pays best for the risk. But only if the plant runs hard chemistry.
STEP
WHAT EARNS
WHAT KILLS IT
THE EVIDENCE
Building blocks and reagents
Breadth and speed; a catalog is the front door to custom work
Asian catalog houses commoditize it; research-catalog lines at the majors are flat to down
Avantor Lab Solutions -7% 2023 to 2025; Merck KGaA's catalog line flat while process chemistry grew 10.7%
Intermediates and starting materials
The permit and the customer's audit are the only gates; China is the sole source of a key starting material for 37% of US APIs; public money follows
Agro price pressure; a route can move to India when the contract ends
VanDeMark's phosgene derivatives bought to "preserve domestic capacity"; a Carolina toll site's nitration and diazotization; Cambrex and SpecGx holding the Schedule II intermediate codes; Gelest's precursor plant
Actives and materials
The highest price per kilo and the stickiest customer
Only behind a license or a filing; customer concentration; the sponsor can insource
Lilly's $17.5bn of owned API plants; Siegfried below 10x for licensed US capacity; Hexcel sole-source positions
SPONSOR
Hunt the middle step
A permitted intermediate maker with one Western customer that audited it.
OWNER
Move up one step
Add the GMP intermediate or the registered material that sits one step from your reagent.
BANKER
Sell the step you run
Position an intermediate maker on its permit and its audits, never on capacity.
MY READ
The catch: the middle step only earns on a skill. A generic intermediate kettle with no permit is the business India and China do cheaper. So the hunt is a US site running fluorine, phosgene, pressure hydrogenation or organometallics at the intermediate step, with an audited Western customer. Nobody prints margin by step, so this stays a hypothesis (sheet 24).
Source: August Grace read, Oct 11, 2026 (judgment, not a document). Figures as cited on sheets 74, 32, 95, 86, and 58.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com13
AGA·DWG / SHEET 14 · ALL NINE SKILLS · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
ALL NINE SKILLS AT A GLANCE
All nine skills on one page. Eight have a closed deal behind them. Fluorine only has new plants.
9 named US makers; Bachem and CordenPharma expanding
Strategic (Samsung's offer for PolyPeptide; CordenPharma bought AmbioPharm)
DEAL
GLP-1 pull vs sponsor insourcing
How to read it: "the US bench" counts the sites on each segment's who-plays sheet, from company pages, permits, and Federal Register notices. "Who's paying" is the last disclosed buyer type. Multiples appear only where the buyer or seller stated them.
Source: August Grace read, Oct 11, 2026 (judgment, not a document). Figures as cited on each segment's who-plays and deals sheets.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com14
AGA·DWG / SHEET 15 · THE SITE MAP · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
WHERE THE PLANTS ARE · EVERY SITE NAMED BY CITY IN THIS GUIDE
Where the named makers sit, skill by skill. About two in three sites are east of the Mississippi, and only five run hazardous chemistry.
THE PATTERN
High pressure runs along the Gulf Coast and up the East. Silicon clusters around the Great Lakes. Licensed sites sit in the Northeast and upper Midwest.
THE THIN ONE
Five hazardous sites, and one of them, the TNT plant in Graham, Kentucky, is planned but not built.
THE NEW ONES
Lilly's planned API plants in Huntsville, Alabama and Houston, Texas are the other two hollow dots.
Sources: the who-plays tables on sheets 31, 39, 45, 52, 58, 67, 77, 85 and 93, and the organometallics makers on sheet 40, each sourced there. Dots sit at the city named in the guide, by standard city coordinates; 67 of 96 are east of the Mississippi. Base map: US Census state outlines via us-atlas, Albers USA.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com15
AGA·DWG / SHEET 16 · HARD TO COPY vs MONEY GOING IN · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
HOW HARD TO COPY vs WHERE THE MONEY IS GOING
Six of the nine skills are hard to copy and still drawing money. Hazardous, licensed and fluorine are the hardest to copy.
MY READ
This is my judgment, with no scores behind the dots. Higher means a buyer would need longer to rebuild the permit, the qualified customers, the equipment and the people. Further right means more deal and plant money has gone in since 2016. Modality has the money but not the moat, because its biggest buyers are building their own plants. High purity sits lowest because catalogs keep getting easier to copy, even as chip-plant chemistry gets bought.
Source: August Grace read, Oct 11, 2026 (judgment, not a document). The deal and plant evidence is on each segment's deals sheet (sheets 32, 41, 46, 53, 59, 69, 78, 86 and 94); the ranking colors are from sheet 18.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com16
AGA·DWG / SHEET 17 · WHERE THE PROFIT IS · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
WHERE THE PROFIT IS · MARGINS BY SKILL, WHERE ANYONE PUBLISHES THEM
Hazardous chemistry and specialty fluorine show the best published margins. Commodity fluoropolymers, generic drugs and surfactants show the lowest.
MY READ
Not like for like: group and segment margins blend businesses, and Stepan's is operating margin. The pattern holds anyway. The permit-heavy skills (Dottikon's nitration and hazardous work, Chemours' refrigerants) earn roughly three to eight times what the scale chemistries earn. No US independent publishes a margin; the private middle has to be read from the deals and the permits.
Sources: Chemours FY2025 results, Feb 19, 2026; Q2 2026 results, Aug 4, 2026; Honeywell on the Solstice spin, Oct 30, 2025; Solstice FY2025 10-K and Q4 release, Feb 11, 2026; Siegfried media releases, Jan 27 and Apr 24, 2026; SK Capital via Business Wire, May 1, 2026; EUROAPI H1 2026 press release, Jul 29, 2026. Wacker Chemie annual reports 2020 and 2025, Silicones segment. Dottikon, Albemarle, PolyPeptide and Stepan as cited on sheets 64, 36, 90, and 50.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com17
AGA·DWG / SHEET 18 · MY RANKING · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
MY RANKING · WHERE THE EVIDENCE AND THE DEAL RECORD POINT
Here's where the evidence and the deal record point the money. The permit and the qualified customer earn the premium. Reactors don't.
WHERE
THE COMPARABLE BEHIND IT
CONFIDENCE
REVENUE BAND A SPONSOR WOULD HUNT (MY READ)
KEY RISK
1
A US hazardous-chemistry site with a live permit (6): nitration, phosgene, cyanide, energetics
Adjacent. Product makers printed: Orica 7.5x for Cyanco, NewMarket ~$700m for AMPAC. Jayhawk (~9x, buyer-stated) is the one multipurpose print
High on the permit; medium on price
$30m to $150m; Jayhawk's ~$78m sits inside it
The risk case is VanDeMark: phosgene at Lockport since 1951, a WARN for 69 jobs in Mar 2026 citing unfunded retooling and debt, then a sale at an undisclosed price. The permit can outlive the equity
2
A Western fluorination or fluorine-reagent site (1), or a partner to an HF owner
None. No site sale has printed; the evidence is capex (Inhance's F2 plant, a Texas fluorination house tripling its site, Arkema's $150m HF plant)
Medium
$10m to $75m
Indian HF (Navin, SRF) undercuts the US reagent step before a first comp prints
3
DEA-registered or high-containment capacity in the US (8)
Direct. Siegfried paid "below 10x" for Noramco's US sites, its words
Medium
$50m to $250m; Siegfried guides ~$100m of 2026 sales from those sites
Quota: opioid classes roughly halved since 2016; stimulants could be next
4
An organometallics or high-pressure independent with Western customers (2, 4)
Adjacent. Grace 9.5x for Albemarle's fine chemistry sites; JM 13.3x and Indorama 6.3x for adjacent businesses; the independents sold undisclosed
Medium
$20m to $100m
A sponsor exit that prints at a reagent distributor's price
WATCH
A US silicon maker with a qualified medical or specialty position (3)
Adjacent. Momentive's ~$3.1bn take-private and Silbond's stated range; Gelest, NuSil, ICM and SiVance sold undisclosed
Medium
$10m to $75m
Almost nothing independent is left, and the rest prices against Chinese siloxane
WATCH
Small monomer and photoinitiator makers (5); fab-adjacent high purity (7)
Adjacent. H.B. Fuller under 6x for formulators; Fujifilm $700m for ~$360m of fab-acid sales
Low
$10m to $50m
CMMC ends up as paperwork and the bench never thins
AVOID FOR MID-MARKET ENTRY
Peptide or oligo capacity without a contract book (9). This grades API capacity; building blocks and intermediates can grade differently
Adjacent. Samsung's CHF 44.31 offer for PolyPeptide, no multiple; CordenPharma bought AmbioPharm undisclosed
Medium
Not a mid-market ticket: CordenPharma's build is €900m
Lilly and Novo insource; Bachem's commercial API fell 19.3% in local currency in H1 2026 while development grew
PASS
Capacity sold mainly on reactor time, with no permit or qualified customer behind it
Adjacent. EUROAPI sold Brindisi at €5m EV
High
Not a hunt
Price is set by Indian and Chinese capacity. Plenty of multipurpose plants do hold a permit and audited customers; those belong in rows 1 to 4
To be straight with you: no US independent hazardous toll site of the row-1 kind has printed a price. The permitted US sites that did print were strategic carve-outs (Albemarle's to Grace) and one Indian purchase (Jayhawk). Why modality isn't a flat avoid: with a contract book the economics work (Bachem's FY2025 EBITDA margin was 30.9%). A mid-market buyer can't get that book.
Sources: Orica, Feb 21, 2024; NewMarket, Dec 4, 2023; Anupam (NSE), Dec 9, 2025; Grace on Albemarle FCS, Feb 25, 2021; Siegfried, Jan 27 and Apr 24, 2026; JM on Catalyst Technologies, May 22, 2025; Indorama on Oxiteno, Apr 4, 2022; H.B. Fuller 2024 Annual Report; Entegris, May 10, 2023; Samsung Biologics offer for PolyPeptide, Jul 20, 2026; Evonik on the Silbond purchase, Feb 28, 2014; MPM Holdings completion 8-K, May 15, 2019; Milliken on SiVance, Oct 2011; CordenPharma, Jul 16, 2024; Bachem Annual Report 2025 and H1 2026 release, Jul 30, 2026; C&EN, Mar 13, 2026; Pulse 2.0, Jun 23, 2026; EUROAPI, Jul 29, 2026. Ranking, confidence and revenue bands are my judgment, not a document. Read it as where the evidence points, not as advice.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com18
AGA·DWG / SHEET 19 · MY RANKING, CHARTED · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
MY RANKING ON ONE CHART · HOW HARD TO COPY vs HOW GOOD THE PRICE EVIDENCE IS
My picks are the skills where the permit and the qualified customer are hardest to rebuild. Only one has a price paid for the same kind of site.
MY READ
This is the same claim as sheet 18: hard to copy means the permit and the qualified customer, not the chemistry on its own. Licensed handling is the one pick with a price a buyer stated for this kind of site (Siegfried, "below 10x"). Hazardous and the two pick-four rows lean on adjacent prints, and fluorine has none. Silicon is a watch: Momentive and Silbond sold near it, not on it. * Modality works with a contract book; a mid-market buyer can't get one (sheet 18).
Sources: rank and comparable from sheet 18; replication position read off sheet 16 (August Grace read, Oct 11, 2026; judgment, not a document); bubble counts are M&A rows on sheets 32, 41, 46, 53, 59, 69, 78, 86 and 94, 2016 to 2026. A deal on two tapes counts on both.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com19
AGA·DWG / SHEET 20 · WHAT A BUYER CHECKS · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
FOR AN OWNER · WHAT A BUYER CHECKS IN A $30M TO $150M PLANT
A buyer checks eight things. The permit and the customer list come first. The reactor list comes last.
#
WHAT A BUYER CHECKS
WHAT THEY ASK FOR
READY · PARTLY · NOT YET
ONE PROOF POINT FROM THE PUBLIC RECORD
1
Permits, and whether they move
Title V, RMP and PSM files; DEA registrations by drug code; any NRC license
A Title V permit can change owners by administrative amendment (40 CFR 70.7); a DEA registration can't move without DEA's written consent (21 CFR 1301.52).
2
Customer qualifications and concentration
Which customers audited the site, for which molecules, and each one's share of sales
Park Aerospace: one customer family is 39% of sales and a second is 12%.
3
Quality and inspection history
FDA inspections and outcomes, DMFs, ISO certificates, customer audit findings
About a third of US custom sites run to GMP (SOCMA).
4
EHS liabilities, and how they're priced
Phase I and II reports, consent orders, incident history, who keeps pre-close liabilities
Huntsman's ~$2.0bn sale to Indorama included ~$76m of liabilities.
5
Utilization
Reactor hours booked by train, the campaign calendar, idle cost
EUROAPI booked €11.1m of idle costs in H1 2026.
6
Asset age and capex backlog
Vessel inspection records, deferred maintenance, the capex a buyer inherits
VanDeMark's WARN notice cited unfunded retooling.
7
People and key operators
Who runs each hazardous step, their tenure, and the retention plan
Radford's nitroglycerin rebuild drew one bid.
8
Contract terms
Term, volume commitments, price adjustment, change of control
CordenPharma had ~€3bn of contracts before a €900m build.
HOW I'D USE IT
Tick one box per row, from the files you'd hand a buyer today. Start with rows 1 and 2, because that's where a buyer starts. There are no weights and no total score, because nobody prints what each row is worth at this size.
THE ONE PRICE ANCHOR AT THIS SIZE
Jayhawk, a US multipurpose site in Galena, Kansas, sold at ~$134m EV on ~$78m of 2024 revenue and ~$15m of EBITDA. That's about 1.7x revenue (my math on Anupam's figures) and ~9x EBITDA (Anupam's figure). It's one deal, so I wouldn't build a range on it.
Sources: 40 CFR 70.7(d)(1)(iv) and 21 CFR 1301.52(b) (eCFR, Sep 2026); Park Aerospace 10-K, FY ended Mar 1, 2026; SOCMA, Oct 23, 2025; Huntsman 8-K, Jan 5, 2020; EUROAPI H1 2026 press release, Jul 29, 2026; C&EN, Mar 13, 2026; DoD contract announcement, Oct 2023; CordenPharma, Jul 16, 2024; Anupam (NSE), Dec 9, 2025. The boxes are a self-check, not a score.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com20
AGA·DWG / SHEET 21 · THE FORCES · AS OF OCT 12, 2026
WHAT'S MOVING THE WHOLE MARKET · TEN YEARS BACK, AND WHAT COMES NEXT
Eight forces moved this market in ten years. Most make an existing permit worth more. Two, India and drug makers building their own plants, make plain capacity worth less.
FORCE
WHAT HAPPENED, WITH THE NUMBER
WHAT COMES NEXT
WHO GAINS, WHO LOSES
Smaller sites, more of them
US custom chemistry sites rose 48% from 2015 to 2025 while jobs rose 12%, so the average site fell from 37 to 28 people. Albemarle, Merck Cherokee and Dow Barry left merchant work. Jobs have been flat since 2022.
Small sites keep changing hands. The buyers are strategics, sponsors and now Indian groups.
GAINS A small site with a permit LOSES A small site without one
Permit rules, tightened then loosened
EPA tightened the RMP rule (Mar 2024, ~11,740 facilities) and the HON rule (May 2024, ~207 plants). In 2026 it proposed rolling back most RMP additions and the EtO sterilizer rule, and 20 HON plants got two more years.
The final rules have no public date. A new permit still takes longer than a deal does.
GAINS Whoever already holds the permit LOSES A greenfield plan
PFAS
3M left PFAS by the end of 2025, taking $1.3bn a year of sales with it. The EU restriction leaves drug and crop actives out. TSCA PFAS reporting starts in 2027.
Fluorine stays in actives. Who makes the reagents 3M used to make is the open question.
GAINS Western fluorine reagent makers LOSES Consumer fluoropolymer uses
The defense rebuild
155mm shell output has tripled since 2022, aiming at 100,000 a month. The first US TNT award in decades came in Nov 2024 ($435m ceiling). DPA Title III put $192.5m into 22 defense chemicals in Feb 2024. CMMC has been in contracts since Nov 10, 2025.
The DPA-funded lines are due by the end of 2027. The TNT plant isn't built yet.
Announced US chip projects total $828bn across 160-plus projects (SIA, Sep 22, 2026). CHIPS grants reached materials makers: Sumika $52.1m, Entegris $77m. Chemours built a two-phase cooling fluid for AI servers and picked Navin in India to make it.
EPA hasn't ruled on the cooling fluid, and there's no public date. Chemours called sales "nominal for sampling" in Aug 2026.
GAINS Fab-side purity and precursor makers LOSES Nobody yet. The fluid gets made in India
China and IP
China is the sole source of a key starting material for 37% of US APIs. BIOSECURE was enacted in Dec 2025. US imports of organic chemicals from China still rose 41% from 2016 to 2025, to $9.2bn.
A second-source premium for US and allied sites. Volume follows only if the law bites in 2028.
GAINS US and allied second sources LOSES Single-source China supply chains
India's rise
US imports of organic chemicals from India doubled from 2016 to 2025, to $4.2bn. India is now the top source of US imports of PTFE and of alkaloids. Indian groups bought Jayhawk and Pressure Chemical.
More Indian bids for US sites, and more Western products made in India, like Chemours' cooling fluid.
GAINS US sellers LOSES US makers selling on price
Drug makers building their own
Lilly is spending $17.5bn on its own API plants, and Novo bought Catalent for fill-finish. US imports under the code that holds GLP-1 drugs went from $0.2bn in 2016 to $57.8bn in 2025, almost all from Ireland.
Lilly's Huntsville plant finishes in 2032. Until then, my read is sponsors still buy outside capacity.
GAINS The sponsors themselves LOSES Capacity built without a contract
Sources: BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, private, NAICS 325199, 325180, 325998, 3254, 2015 to 2025; EPA RMP final rule, 89 FR, Mar 11, 2024; EPA HON final rule, May 16, 2024; EPA proposed rule, 91 FR 8970, Feb 24, 2026; EPA sterilizer reconsideration, 91 FR 12700, Mar 17, 2026; Proclamation 11041, 91 FR 44719, Jul 16, 2026; 3M on its PFAS exit, Dec 20, 2022; 3M FY2025 10-K; Army.mil, 155 mm production, Feb 20, 2025; Army.mil on the TNT contract, Nov 8, 2024; DoD on $192.5m of DPA awards, Feb 1, 2024; Inside Defense on the DPAI awards, 2024; CMMC final rule, 32 CFR 170, Oct 15, 2024; DFARS CMMC rule, Sep 10, 2025; SIA project tracker, Sep 22, 2026; CHIPS award releases; DatacenterDynamics on Chemours and Navin, May 12, 2025; NC AI News on Opteon 2P50 and EPA review, Sep 16, 2026; Latham & Watkins on BIOSECURE, Dec 2025; UN Comtrade, US-reported imports by HS code and partner, 2016 to 2025, CIF value (comtradeapi.un.org public API, pulled Oct 12, 2026); Fierce Pharma on Lilly's Huntsville plant, Dec 9, 2025. 2025 imports may include tariff front-loading (my read).
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com21
AGA·DWG / SHEET 22 · THE IMPORT DATA · AS OF OCT 12, 2026
WHAT COMES IN, AND FROM WHERE · US IMPORTS BY SKILL, 2016 AND 2025
US imports since 2016: India's share rose in eight of these eleven codes, China's fell in seven, and defense imports doubled.
WHAT
HS CODE
SKILL
2016, $M
2025, $M
TOP SOURCE, 2025
CHINA SHARE
INDIA SHARE
WHAT IT TELLS ME
Hydrofluoric acid
2811.11
Fluorine
190
188
Mexico, 79%
4% to 1%
0% to 2%
Flat, and four-fifths from Mexico
PTFE
3904.61
Fluorine
159
138
India, 30%
16% to 12%
9% to 30%
India tripled its share and is now first
Other organo-inorganic compounds (from 2017)
2931.90
Organometallics
854
508
China, 33%
54% to 33%
5% to 9%
China's share fell by a third
Silicones in primary forms
3910
Silicon
450
673
Germany, 30%
7% to 9%
0.6% to 1%
Up half, mostly from Germany and Japan
Acrylic and other monocarboxylic acids
2916
Polymers
806
864
China, 18%
32% to 18%
4% to 11%
China's share nearly halved; India's tripled
Propellant powders
3601
Hazardous
84
163
Canada, 70%
0% to 1%
0% to 0%
Nearly doubled, mostly from Canada
Prepared explosives
3602
Hazardous
84
185
Poland, 30%
15% to 0%
0% to 4%
More than doubled, and China dropped out
Alkaloids
2939
Licensed
666
606
India, 18%
9% to 17%
3% to 18%
India went from 3% to first
Polypeptide hormones (holds GLP-1 drugs)
2937.19
Modality
158
57,787
Ireland, 97%
5% to 2%
5% to 0%
A drug makers' flow, not a custom one
Heterocyclic compounds (drug intermediates)
2933
Across skills
12,874
8,588
Ireland, 43%
6% to 16%
3% to 9%
Down overall; China's and India's shares up
All organic chemicals
Ch. 29
All
49,783
103,856
Ireland, 63%
13% to 9%
4% to 4%
China +41% and India +103% in dollars
HOW TO READ IT
These are customs codes, not segments, so each one is a proxy. Values are in dollars, not tonnes, and 2025 may include buying ahead of tariffs (my read). High pressure and high purity have no clean code, so they aren't here. The organometallics code starts in 2017 because its scope changed that year.
Source: UN Comtrade, US-reported imports by HS code and partner, 2016 to 2025, CIF value (comtradeapi.un.org public API, pulled Oct 12, 2026). Shares are of the US total for each code; "Ch. 29" is the whole organic chemicals chapter. Each skill's own sheets use the same pull.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com22
AGA·DWG / SHEET 23 · DEFENSE AND AI · AS OF OCT 12, 2026
WHERE DEFENSE AND AI SHOW UP · BY SKILL, PUBLIC RECORD ONLY
Defense work already runs through three skills. AI shows up in three, and the cooling fluid is still waiting on EPA.
SKILL
DEFENSE
AI BUILD-OUT: CHIPS AND DATA CENTERS
THE PUBLIC EVIDENCE
1 Fluorine
Nothing public I'd lean on
Two-phase immersion cooling fluid for AI servers, the market 3M's exit left open
Chemours announced Opteon 2P50 in 2023 and picked Navin to make it in India from 2026. It isn't sold in the US while EPA reviews it (P-26-0071), and the CEO called sales "nominal for sampling" on Aug 5, 2026
2 Organometallics
Propellant stabilizers and energetic precursors
Deposition precursors for advanced chips
DPA Title III: $86.2m to Lacamas for seven defense chemicals, Feb 2024. EMD Electronics' $200m three-state precursor program; Sheboygan Falls opened Oct 5, 2026
5 Polymers and CASE
Prepregs, ablatives and radomes for missiles and aircraft; CMMC since Nov 10, 2025
None I'd claim
Park Aerospace: one customer family is 39% of sales. Hexcel is sole source on many programs
6 Hazardous
TNT, nitroglycerin, perchlorate and propellants for the 155mm ramp
None
$435m TNT ceiling, Nov 2024; $47.1m Radford rebuild; $192.5m of DPA awards for 22 chemicals. US imports of propellant powders nearly doubled to $163m, 70% from Canada
7 High purity
None
Acids, solvents and standards for the new US fabs
SIA counts $828bn across 160-plus US chip projects, Sep 22, 2026. CHIPS grants: Sumika $52.1m, Entegris $77m
No link I'd stand behind: silicon, high pressure, licensed handling and modality synthesis.
MY READ
Defense helps US makers sooner, because the money is contracted and dated. AI is real demand for chip materials and cooling, but Chemours' cooling fluid gets made in India and still waits on EPA. I wouldn't pay a premium for AI exposure in a US custom plant yet.
Sources: DatacenterDynamics on Chemours and Navin, May 12, 2025; NC AI News on Opteon 2P50, EPA review and the Aug 5, 2026 earnings call, Sep 16, 2026; DoD on $192.5m of DPA awards, Feb 1, 2024; Inside Defense on the DPAI awards, 2024; Trade and Industry Development on EMD Electronics' Sheboygan Falls site, Oct 5, 2026; Park Aerospace 10-K, FY ended Mar 1, 2026; Hexcel 10-K; CMMC final rule, 32 CFR 170, Oct 15, 2024; DFARS CMMC rule, Sep 10, 2025; Army.mil on the TNT contract, Nov 8, 2024; DoD contract announcement on Radford, Oct 2023; SIA project tracker, Sep 22, 2026; CHIPS award releases; UN Comtrade, US-reported imports by HS code and partner, 2016 to 2025, CIF value (comtradeapi.un.org public API, pulled Oct 12, 2026).
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com23
AGA·DWG / SHEET 24 · HOW SURE I AM · AS OF OCT 12, 2026
HOW SURE I AM, AND WHETHER OTHERS SEE IT THE SAME WAY
I'm surest about the permit. I'm least sure where nobody has paid a public price yet.
WHAT I THINK
HOW SURE I AM
DO OTHERS SEE IT THE SAME WAY? (MY READ)
End markets set demand. What a buyer pays for is the skill and the permit
HIGH
Yes on demand. GLP-1 drugs, ammunition and new fabs show it (sheets 90, 64 and 74). Less agreement on price
An existing permit for hazardous chemistry is the hardest thing to replace in US custom chemistry
HIGH
Hardly anyone writes about it. VanDeMark's closure got one editorial
Fluorine stays in drugs and crop chemicals. The gap 3M left is in the reagents
HIGH
No. Most people read the PFAS rules as a ban on fluorine
For a US independent, the middle step of a chain pays best for the risk
MEDIUM
Nobody can check it. No one publishes margins by step
Licensed sites sell for under 10x, and stimulants, not opioids, are where the growth is
MEDIUM
Partly. Siegfried said the first part once; DEA's quota numbers show the second
Peptide or oligo capacity built without a contract will sit idle
MEDIUM
No. Most people still see the GLP-1 build as the safe bet
Indian groups are becoming buyers of US sites
MEDIUM
Few have noticed. Jayhawk and Pressure Chemical were small deals
Defense money helps US makers sooner than AI money does
MEDIUM
Not yet tested. Defense awards are dated contracts; the AI cooling fluid waits on EPA
Any size I printed for a US segment would be a guess
HIGH
Yes, by silence. Nobody prints one
What would change my mind: a public price for a US fluorine site or a hazardous toll site, any operator's margin by step, or a sponsor contract that pays for a new peptide or oligo plant. Each skill's last sheet lists its own.
Source: August Grace read, Oct 12, 2026 (judgment, not a document). The defense and AI evidence is on sheet 23.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com24
AGA·DWG / SHEET 25 · END OF PART 1
END OF PART 1 · NINE SKILLS TO GO
You've seen the map. The next 71 sheets take each skill apart, one at a time.
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August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com25
AGA·DWG / SHEET 26 · PART 2 · SKILL 1 OF 9
August GraceADVISORY
PART 2 OF 4 · THE NINE SKILLS · SKILL 1 OF 9
Fluorine and halogens
Putting a carbon-fluorine bond into a molecule, safely. About half of new drug and crop actives carry one, and 3M has left the market.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com26
AGA·DWG / SHEET 27 · SEGMENT 1 OF 9 · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
SEGMENT 01 · FLUORINE AND HALOGENS
Fluorine work means adding a carbon-fluorine bond safely. The permit kicks in at 1,000 pounds, the ore is imported, and 3M has left.
Why it matters: fluorine is in about half of new drug and crop actives, and the rules are keeping it there while pushing it out of pans and raincoats. 3M's exit took $1.3bn a year of Western fluorochemical sales off the market, and nobody has said they're replacing it. The US makers left are small and private, and most sell reagents by the kilo. That's the gap I'd look at.
WHAT IT MAKES
Reagents, intermediates, fluids
Fluorinated building blocks and intermediates for actives; refrigerants, cooling fluids, electrolyte salts, anesthetics at the materials end.
WHY IT'S SCARCE
Permit, ore, metallurgy
HF and F2 are RMP chemicals at 1,000 lb; fluorspar is 100% imported and 72% dearer than a decade ago; the reactors have to be corrosion-proof.
WHO'S PAYING
Strategics and the government
A $150m HF plant (Arkema), a $100m DOE grant (Koura), an F2 plant (Inhance), a Texas site tripling in size. No site sale has printed a price.
Where I land: a Western fluorine reagent site is my second pick (sheet 18). It's behind hazardous chemistry only because nobody has paid a public price for one yet.
Sources: 40 CFR 68.130, RMP threshold quantities (eCFR, Oct 9, 2026); USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, Fluorspar, 2020 and 2026 editions; 3M on its PFAS manufacturing exit, Dec 20, 2022; 3M FY2025 10-K; Q4 2025 and Q2 2026 earnings exhibits; Mishra et al., RSC Advances, Mar 13, 2026 (fluorine in 2025 FDA approvals); Ogawa et al., iScience, Aug 2020 (fluorine in new agrochemicals).
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com27
AGA·DWG / SHEET 28 · SEGMENT 1 · SIZE · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
FLUORINE · HOW BIG IT IS
Nobody publishes a size for custom fluorine work, so I track the raw materials. Volume is flat, HF imports are down 40%, and the ore costs 72% more.
THE MAJORS
Specialty up, polymers down
Chemours' refrigerants and fluids segment $2,066m (+13%) at 32% EBITDA; fluoropolymers $1,263m (-5%) at 9%. Solstice $3,886m, capex 10% of sales.
THE EXIT
$1,289m to $27m
3M's PFAS product sales, 2023 to the first half of 2026. The exit completed at the end of 2025; some customer re-qualifications were still running.
THE COMPETITOR
Navin CDMO +59%
Navin's fluorine CDMO line grew 59% in FY26 to ₹546cr, with a 40,000 tpa HF plant live from Feb 2026. That's where the merchant volume is going.
Forward, dated: Koura's LiPF6 unit in Louisiana (DOE $100m, 31 to 32 months of construction after the June 2026 clearance); Inhance's F2 plant (Feb 2026); a Texas direct-fluorination site tripling in size; Arkema's Calvert City PVDF (+15%, mid-2026); Chemours' AI cooling fluid, made by Navin in India from 2026 and not sold in the US until EPA clears it.
Sources: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, Fluorspar, 2020 and 2026 editions; Chemours FY2025 results, Feb 19, 2026; Q2 2026 results, Aug 4, 2026; Honeywell on the Solstice spin, Oct 30, 2025; Solstice FY2025 10-K and Q4 release, Feb 11, 2026; 3M on its PFAS manufacturing exit, Dec 20, 2022; 3M FY2025 10-K; Q4 2025 and Q2 2026 earnings exhibits; Navin Fluorine annual report FY26; Q4 FY26 presentation; Dahej AHF disclosure, Feb 6, 2026; DOE FONSI, EA-2236, Mexichem Fluor LiPF6 unit, Louisiana, Jun 2026.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com28
AGA·DWG / SHEET 29 · SEGMENT 1 · WHY IT EARNS MORE · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
FLUORINE · WHY IT EARNS MORE
Three things make fluorine work pay more: the permit, the ore, and the years a customer spends qualifying a product. A new plant gets none of them with its reactors.
THE PERMIT
1,000 lb and you're an RMP site
HF and F2 trigger a Risk Management Plan at 1,000 lb, SF4 at 2,500 lb, against 2,500 for chlorine and 10,000 for bromine. Any working inventory is a regulated site.
THE ORE
100% imported, +72% in a decade
Import reliance for fluorspar was 100% every year 2021 to 2025; China mined 60% of the world's. Integrated HF is the cost edge.
THE CLOCK
Three years for one fluid
Chemours announced Opteon 2P50 in Aug 2023. Navin makes it from 2026, but US sales wait on EPA. 3M told customers to find their own supply.
THE PATENTS
25-plus patents at one site
One Texas house holds forty years of direct-fluorination patents at a single site that is now tripling in size.
THE FILING
A GMP anesthetic file
One South Carolina maker sells GMP isoflurane and sevoflurane, a finished-drug position built since 1959. What's for sale there is the registration.
THE CUSTOMER'S MONEY
Co-funded capex
Navin's cooling-fluid line: about $14m of capex, $5m from the customer. Its Dahej debottleneck for an innovator: 35% customer-funded. That's real pull.
MY READ
What this means for price: the buyer of a fluorine site is buying a permit it can't get in a deal timeline, feedstock access it can't replicate, and customer qualifications that took years. The reactor list is the least of it.
Sources: 40 CFR 68.130, RMP threshold quantities (eCFR, Oct 9, 2026); USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, Fluorspar, 2020 and 2026 editions; DatacenterDynamics on Chemours and Navin, May 12, 2025; 3M PFAS manufacturing phase-out customer letter, Dec 20, 2022 (hosted by Silmid); company pages (2026) of the makers on sheet 31; Navin Fluorine annual report FY26; Q4 FY26 presentation; Dahej AHF disclosure, Feb 6, 2026.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com29
AGA·DWG / SHEET 30 · SEGMENT 1 · HOW THEY GET PAID · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
FLUORINE · HOW THEY GET PAID
The reagent end sells from a catalog, and the materials end runs on supply deals. Nobody in the middle publishes a contract.
REAGENTS AND BUILDING BLOCKS
INTERMEDIATES
MATERIALS AND FLUIDS
Contract shape
Catalog and inquiry; SynQuest answers "within 48 hours"
Custom supply; take-or-pay terms not found in public
Supply partnerships: Arkema's 40 kt/yr HF deal at Nutrien; Chemours' manufacturing agreement with Navin
Pricing basis
Per gram or kilo off a list
Per kilo on a route; one US maker says it doesn't demand volume targets before starting
Per ton; refrigerant pricing shaped by the AIM Act phase-down
Small; one Texas house's 33,000 sq ft expansion, cost undisclosed
Navin: about $14m for one product line
Solstice 10.5% of sales in 2025; Chemours 3.7%; a greenfield HF plant $150m
Who funds it
The owner
The customer, in part (Navin: 35% and $5m examples)
The government (DOE $100m) and the strategic
MY READ
The missing row is the one a sponsor wants: contract length and utilization at a US custom fluorination site. Nobody publishes it. The honest proxy is the Indian platforms, which do publish, and they show customers paying up front for capacity. A US seller who can show the same thing has a price.
Sources: SynQuest Laboratories company pages, 2026; company pages (2026) of the makers on sheet 31; Arkema on the Nutrien AHF partnership, Jun 2, 2020; Calvert City PVDF, Feb 25, 2025; Chemours and Navin Fluorine agreement, May 6, 2025; Chemours FY2025 results, Feb 19, 2026; Q2 2026 results, Aug 4, 2026; Honeywell on the Solstice spin, Oct 30, 2025; Solstice FY2025 10-K and Q4 release, Feb 11, 2026; Navin Fluorine annual report FY26; Q4 FY26 presentation; Dahej AHF disclosure, Feb 6, 2026; DOE FONSI, EA-2236, Mexichem Fluor LiPF6 unit, Louisiana, Jun 2026.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com30
AGA·DWG / SHEET 31 · SEGMENT 1 · WHO PLAYS · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
FLUORINE · WHO PLAYS
Eight US fluorine makers, two of them owned by bigger groups. The majors own the acid, and the independents sell reagents.
WHO
WHERE
WHAT IT RUNS
OWNER
WORTH KNOWING
Halocarbon
North Augusta, SC
TFA, trifluoroethanol, fluorinated intermediates; GMP isoflurane and sevoflurane
Private, 70+ years
One US plant; the only GMP finished-drug position on this list
Exfluor Research
Round Rock, TX
Direct F2 fluorination; perfluorinated acids, acrylates, ethers; gram to multi-ton
Private
25+ patents; tripling its site, groundbreaking Apr 2024
Inhance / ARC
Houston; Catoosa, OK
Packaged F2 and mixtures (new plant Feb 2026), plastics fluorination, fluoropolymer purification
Aurora Capital, since 2018
The one US sponsor platform in fluorine
SynQuest Laboratories
Alachua, FL
5,000+ fluorinated building blocks; mg to pilot scale
Central Glass (Japan), since 2002
Not independent; the catalog front door
Matrix Scientific
Columbia, SC
Catalog fluorinated building blocks; custom to commercial via partners
Not found
Claims 300 kL of reactors; where they sit isn't stated
Fluoryx
Carson City, NV
Custom fluorochemicals, PFAS reference standards
Private, 1 to 10 staff
Small federal orders; reference-standard scale so far
Oakwood Chemical
Estill, SC
Catalog research chemicals with a focus on fluorine and sulfur compounds; custom synthesis
Private (Oakwood Products), since 1992
A catalog front door with a fluorine focus
Pressure Chemical
Pittsburgh, PA
High-pressure chemistry; parent runs vapor-phase fluorination in India
Novopor (India), May 2025
Bought by Novopor, May 2025
The majors: Chemours (Opteon, fluoropolymers), Solstice (HF production, etchants, HFOs; 4,100 staff), Arkema (Calvert City PVDF on Nutrien HF), Daikin America (Decatur, AL), Koura (Louisiana HF and the LiPF6 build). Japan's Central Glass, AGC, and Daikin sit in polymers, gases, and catalogs.
India and China: Navin (CDMO ₹546cr, +59%; SF4; XtalFluor rights; 40 kt HF), SRF (₹2,300cr HF and HFO build to 2028; cites "aggressive" Chinese pricing), GFL (LiPF6, PVDF binder). China mined 60% of the world's fluorspar; the R-32 antidumping order is the one US trade shield found.
Sources: Halocarbon company pages (About; Life Sciences), 2026; Exfluor Research company page, 2026; Aurora Capital Partners on Inhance and ARC, Dec 14, 2021; Inhance release on packaged fluorine, Feb 24, 2026; SynQuest Laboratories company pages, 2026; Matrix Scientific custom synthesis page, 2026; SAM.gov vendor data for Fluoryx via GovTribe; Oakwood Chemical, About Us, 2026; SC Department of Commerce on Oakwood's Estill expansion, Jun 10, 2015; Novopor announcement on Pressure Chemical, May 7, 2025; Honeywell on the Solstice spin, Oct 30, 2025; Solstice FY2025 10-K and Q4 release, Feb 11, 2026; Navin Fluorine annual report FY26; Q4 FY26 presentation; Dahej AHF disclosure, Feb 6, 2026; SRF Q4 FY26 results release, May 5, 2026; USITC on the R-32 antidumping order, Jul 15, 2026.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com31
AGA·DWG / SHEET 32 · SEGMENT 1 · THE DEALS · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
FLUORINE · THE DEALS, 2016 TO 2026
Fourteen moves in ten years, and no price disclosed for a fluorine site. The money went into new plants, grants and one Indian buyer.
DATE
WHO
WHAT
TERMS
PAID FOR
2018
Aurora Capital
Inhance Technologies (Houston)
Undisclosed
A fluorine platform
Jun 2020
Arkema with Nutrien
40 kt/yr HF plant, Aurora, NC, for Calvert City
$150m
"AHF supply at a stable, competitive price"
Dec 2021
Inhance
Advance Research Chemicals (Catoosa, OK)
Undisclosed
F2 products; "a transformational step"
Oct 2022
US DOE
Koura LiPF6 unit, Louisiana
$100m award
Domestic electrolyte salt
Dec 2022
3M
Exit of all PFAS manufacturing by 2025
$1.3bn sales out
An exit, not a purchase
Apr 2024
A Texas fluorination house
33,000 sq ft expansion
Undisclosed
Space tripling
Feb 2025
Arkema
Calvert City PVDF +15%
About $20m
Batteries and semiconductors
May 2025
Chemours with Navin
Opteon 2P50 made in India from 2026
Navin capex ~$14m, $5m customer-funded
Immersion cooling
May 2025
Novopor (India)
Pressure Chemical (Pittsburgh)
Undisclosed
"An integrated specialty chemicals platform"
Oct 2025
Honeywell holders
Solstice spin-off
1 for 4
Separation
Feb 2026
Navin
40 kt HF at Dahej, live
Competitor capex
Backward integration
Feb 2026
Inhance
Packaged F2 plant, Catoosa, OK
Undisclosed
"A qualified U.S. source"
May 2026
Capmont
Dyneon (Gendorf), from 3M
Undisclosed
Keeping 400 jobs running
Jun 2026
US DOE
FONSI for Koura's LiPF6 unit
$100m; 10,000 t/yr
Clearance to build
No multiple is printed: none of these buyers or sellers stated one. That absence tells you something. A sponsor looking at a US fluorine site is pricing an asset class with no public comp, which cuts both ways.
Sources: Aurora Capital Partners on Inhance and ARC, Dec 14, 2021; Inhance release on packaged fluorine, Feb 24, 2026; Arkema on the Nutrien AHF partnership, Jun 2, 2020; Calvert City PVDF, Feb 25, 2025; DOE FONSI, EA-2236, Mexichem Fluor LiPF6 unit, Louisiana, Jun 2026; 3M on its PFAS manufacturing exit, Dec 20, 2022; 3M FY2025 10-K; Q4 2025 and Q2 2026 earnings exhibits; Community Impact on a Round Rock expansion, Apr 11, 2024; Chemours and Navin Fluorine agreement, May 6, 2025; Novopor announcement on Pressure Chemical, May 7, 2025; Honeywell on the Solstice spin, Oct 30, 2025; Solstice FY2025 10-K and Q4 release, Feb 11, 2026; Navin Fluorine annual report FY26; Q4 FY26 presentation; Dahej AHF disclosure, Feb 6, 2026; European Rubber Journal on 3M, Dyneon and Capmont, Jun 4, 2026.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com32
AGA·DWG / SHEET 33 · SEGMENT 1 · THE CALL · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
FLUORINE · MY CALL, AND WHAT WOULD CHANGE IT
My call: buy or build a Western fluorine reagent business while 3M's gap is open and before a sale sets the price.
WHAT COULD BREAK IT
WHAT I'D WATCH
HOW I'D KNOW I'M WRONG
The volume went to Asia
Solstice and Chemours specialty lines, FY2027
No growth tied to re-sourced 3M customers
PFAS rules reach actives
SEAC final opinion, end-2026; US state laws
The intermediate exclusion narrows
The first US site sale prints low
Any disclosed price for a fluorination independent
A permit-holding site trading like a toll plant
Indian HF makes the US reagent step uneconomic
Navin and SRF pricing; the R-32 order's fate
US independents lose Western customers on price alone
SPONSOR
Hunt the permit
Screen for RMP-registered HF or F2 inventories at custom scale. Inhance is the template: a platform built on fluorine handling rather than a product.
OWNER
Lead with the permit and the ore
Your RMP filing, your HF source, and the customers who qualified you are the pitch. The reactor list comes last.
BANKER
Name the buyer types
Central Glass bought SynQuest (2002), Aurora bought Inhance, Novopor bought Pressure Chemical, Chemours contracted Navin. No US site price printed.
WHAT WOULD CHANGE MY MIND
A disclosed sale of a US fluorination site at a toll-plant price, or a final EU restriction that pulls actives into scope. Either one and this drops from second to a watch.
Sources: Honeywell on the Solstice spin, Oct 30, 2025; Solstice FY2025 10-K and Q4 release, Feb 11, 2026; Chemours FY2025 results, Feb 19, 2026; Q2 2026 results, Aug 4, 2026; ECHA on the PFAS restriction opinions, Mar 26, 2026, and the TFA classification opinion, Oct 6, 2026; Navin Fluorine annual report FY26; Q4 FY26 presentation; Dahej AHF disclosure, Feb 6, 2026; SRF Q4 FY26 results release, May 5, 2026.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com33
AGA·DWG / SHEET 34 · PART 2 · SKILL 2 OF 9
August GraceADVISORY
PART 2 OF 4 · THE NINE SKILLS · SKILL 2 OF 9
Organometallics and reactive metals
Grignards, organolithiums and metal alkyls. They catch fire in air, so they ship sealed, and they make the coupling steps in drugs and crops and the precursors chips are built from.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com34
AGA·DWG / SHEET 35 · SEGMENT 2 OF 9 · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
SEGMENT 02 · ORGANOMETALLICS AND REACTIVE METALS
These compounds catch fire in air or react with water, so they ship sealed. The US independents are small and private, and the big groups are building.
Why it matters: drug coupling steps, plastics catalysts and the precursors a chip fab deposits all start here. The US independents are small and private, the big groups are adding precursor capacity ahead of demand, and the one multiple stated nearby, in catalysts, was 13.3x. Plain reagents price like lithium. A qualified material prices like a place in someone's process.
WHAT IT MAKES
Reagents, catalysts, precursors
Grignards, organolithiums, boranes, metal alkyls, metallocenes, precious-metal catalysts, and deposition precursors, almost all at the building-block step.
WHY IT'S SCARCE
Hazard class and the packaging train
Division 4.2 and 4.3 handling from reactor to bubbler, fab-grade purity specs, and sites that go back to 1959 and grow by cells, not greenfield.
WHO'S PAYING
Sponsors, strategics, fabs
Private equity owns two of the US independents; Mitsubishi, Grace, Rio Tinto, Honeywell on the strategic side; Entegris and EMD building precursor capacity.
Where I land: a US independent with a qualified spot in a chip fab or a plastics line is my fourth pick (sheet 18). A catalog on its own rides the lithium cycle.
Sources: 49 CFR 173.124, Division 4.2 and 4.3 definitions (eCFR, Oct 2026); company sites and trade-show decks of the US independents, 2025 to 2026; Johnson Matthey on the sale of Catalyst Technologies, May 22, 2025; Entegris 10-K FY2025; Q4 and FY2025 results, Feb 10, 2026.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com35
AGA·DWG / SHEET 36 · SEGMENT 2 · SIZE · AS OF OCT 12, 2026
ORGANOMETALLICS · HOW BIG IT IS
Nobody sizes US organometallics. Imports and the two listed proxies all say flat, and China's share of the imports fell from over half to a third.
THE TWO LISTED PROXIES
2024
2025
CHANGE
Entegris Materials Solutions, net sales
$1,400m
$1,407m
+0.5%
Albemarle Specialties, net sales
$1,326m
$1,366m
+3%
Albemarle Specialties, adjusted EBITDA
$229m
$276m
+21%
How I read the imports: HS 2931.90 holds most organometallic compounds but other chemicals too, so I read the trend, not the level. Imports from everywhere but China held between $330m and $400m in seven of nine years. China's fell from about $460m to $166m.
THE PRECURSOR PROXY
Flat
Entegris Materials Solutions grew 0.5% in 2025. The CEO credited the year to filtration, etch, and CMP, not deposition materials.
THE REAGENT PROXY
Up, then guided down
Albemarle guided 2026 Specialties EBITDA to $170m to $230m, with lithium specialties pricing "adjusted down from its peak".
THE INDEPENDENTS
Growing in steps
Optima put about $30m into its two sites in 2022 to 2024, and Lacamas holds an $86.2m DoD award. None of them publishes sales.
Forward, dated: EMD Electronics' $200m three-state program (Sheboygan Falls opened Oct 5, 2026); Entegris solid precursors at Burnet, Texas; Nouryon's doubled TEAL in China (2025) and MMAO from 2027; Lacamas' DPA-funded lines, due by the end of 2027.
Sources: UN Comtrade, US-reported imports by HS code and partner, 2016 to 2025, CIF value (comtradeapi.un.org public API, pulled Oct 12, 2026); HS 2931.90 from 2017, the first year of its current scope. Entegris 10-K FY2025; Q4 and FY2025 results, Feb 10, 2026; Albemarle 10-K FY2025; Q4 and FY2025 results, Feb 2026; Optima Chemical, SOCMA Showcase deck, Feb 2025; DoD on $192.5m of DPA awards, Feb 1, 2024; Inside Defense on the DPAI awards, 2024; Trade and Industry Development on EMD Electronics' Sheboygan Falls site, Oct 5, 2026; Nouryon release on metal alkyls, Oct 16, 2025.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com36
AGA·DWG / SHEET 37 · SEGMENT 2 · WHY IT EARNS MORE · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
ORGANOMETALLICS · WHY IT EARNS MORE
This work pays more for the hazard, the purity spec and a place in a customer's process. Plain reagents have none of that, so they price like lithium.
THE HAZARD
Division 4.2 and 4.3
Ignites in air within five minutes, or evolves flammable gas on contact with water. Only a site built for inert handling and transfilling can quote.
THE SPEC
A fab-grade purity spec
Purity is part of the product. A fab qualifies the precursor and its bubbler together, and Entegris sells both.
THE SLOT
A continuous train, a fab, an airframe
TEAL feeds polyolefin lines that don't stop; a precursor holds a deposition step; a defense chemical sits inside a program for decades.
THE IP
The IP sits in the catalyst
Grace paid $416m for Albemarle's polyolefin catalysts and named the patent estate. Johnson Matthey sold its catalyst business at a stated 13.3x adjusted EBITDA.
THE PEOPLE
Decades of air-free work
Optima has run organometallics in Douglas, Georgia since 1990. That kind of team is built over decades, and it doesn't come with a hire.
THE COUNTEREXAMPLE
Butyllithium
Albemarle's lithium specialties pricing is down from 2024 highs and 2026 EBITDA is guided lower. A commodity-grade solution rides the lithium cycle.
MY READ
What this means for price: a buyer pays for the qualified slot and the catalyst IP. A reagent catalog with no qualified customer is a good business, but it trades like a chemical.
Sources: 49 CFR 173.124, Division 4.2 and 4.3 definitions (eCFR, Oct 2026); Entegris 10-K FY2025; Q4 and FY2025 results, Feb 10, 2026; Nouryon release on metal alkyls, Oct 16, 2025; PCI Magazine on Zhejiang Friend, Jul 26, 2019; Hydrocarbon Processing, Oct 2019; Optima Chemical, SOCMA Showcase deck, Feb 2025; BIC Magazine on Grace and Albemarle polyolefin catalysts, Apr 4, 2018; Johnson Matthey on the sale of Catalyst Technologies, May 22, 2025; Albemarle 10-K FY2025; Q4 and FY2025 results, Feb 2026; company fact sheet, Jun 2025.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com37
AGA·DWG / SHEET 38 · SEGMENT 2 · HOW THEY GET PAID · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
ORGANOMETALLICS · HOW THEY GET PAID
Catalog sales at the small end, long supply deals for qualified materials. Bulk reagents sell on volume and price.
CATALOG
QUALIFIED MATERIAL
BULK REAGENT
Example
A private reagent house's catalog of organometallic building blocks
A fab-qualified precursor sold with its container (Entegris); a defense chemical inside a program
Albemarle lithium specialties; Nouryon TEAL to polyolefin producers
Pricing
Per gram, high unit price
Per program; the slot is the price
Volume and price reported separately each quarter (Q4 2025: volume +2%, price +1%)
Metal
Pass-through on precious metals
Embedded in the spec
Rides the lithium cycle
Capacity
Kilo-scale inert synthesis
Added in steps: Optima, about $30m across two sites, 2022 to 2024
Plant-scale: La Porte TEAL since 1959
What's public
Catalog depth
The agreement's existence, not its terms
Segment sales and EBITDA (Albemarle), precursor segment sales (Entegris)
MY READ
Take-or-pay and reservation terms: not found in any public document for this segment. Capex per dollar of sales: not published by any private player; Entegris spends 10% of sales on engineering and R&D, which is the closest public ratio. The private middle is where an operator's number would go.
Sources: Optima Chemical, SOCMA Showcase deck, Feb 2025; company sites and trade-show decks of the US independents, 2025 to 2026; Albemarle 10-K FY2025; Q4 and FY2025 results, Feb 2026; company fact sheet, Jun 2025; Nouryon release on metal alkyls, Oct 16, 2025; PCI Magazine on Zhejiang Friend, Jul 26, 2019; Hydrocarbon Processing, Oct 2019; Entegris 10-K FY2025; Q4 and FY2025 results, Feb 10, 2026.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com38
AGA·DWG / SHEET 39 · SEGMENT 2 · WHO PLAYS · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
ORGANOMETALLICS · WHO PLAYS
Four private US independents do the custom work, next to the big groups. Two of the four belong to sponsors.
WHO
WHERE
WHAT IT RUNS
OWNER
WORTH KNOWING
Two sponsor-owned independents (not named)
Mountain West; Midwest
Metallocenes, deposition precursors, Grignards, organozincs, ligands; pyrophoric at commercial scale
Private equity
Neither publishes sales
Optima Chemical
Douglas, GA; Belle, WV
Organolithiums, Grignards, boronic acids, organophosphines; pilot to commercial
$86.2m DoD award (2024) for seven defense chemicals
Gelest
Morrisville, PA
Silicon and metal-organic compounds, precursors
Mitsubishi Chemical, Oct 2020
The sponsor-to-strategic exit
Nouryon metal alkyls
La Porte, TX
TEAL and metal alkyls, transfilling
Nouryon (PE-owned)
One US TEAL site; capacity doubled in China, not Texas
Umicore PMC USA
Catoosa, OK
Homogeneous precious-metal catalysts, pilot to commercial
Umicore
Replaced New Jersey in 2014
Albemarle Specialties
New Johnsonville, TN
Butyllithium, LiAlH4, lithium specialties
Public
$1,366m sales; pricing off its peak
Entegris, EMD Electronics
Burnet, TX; Sheboygan Falls, WI; Catoosa, OK
Deposition precursors with delivery systems; R&D and scale-up
Public; Merck KGaA
Building capacity while the segment is flat
The majors: Grace (polyolefin catalysts, Baton Rouge, $416m from Albemarle), Rio Tinto Lithium (the former Arcadium butyllithium business, $6.7bn), Honeywell (JM Catalyst Technologies), Merck KGaA, Mitsubishi Chemical, PMC Group (Lanxess organotins, 2019).
India and China: Nouryon bought China's largest TEAL maker (Zhejiang Friend, 2019) and doubled it in 2025; its Indian node is a transfilling station. Named Indian and Chinese makers, more US makers and the catalog houses are on sheet 40.
Sources: company sites and trade-show decks of the US independents, 2025 to 2026; Optima Chemical, SOCMA Showcase deck, Feb 2025; DoD on $192.5m of DPA awards incl. $86.2m to Lacamas Laboratories, Feb 1, 2024; Mitsubishi Chemical America on Gelest, Oct 2, 2020; Nouryon release on metal alkyls, Oct 16, 2025; PCI Magazine on Zhejiang Friend, Jul 26, 2019; Hydrocarbon Processing, Oct 2019; Umicore US locations page; CHEManager on the Tulsa plant, Jun 26, 2014; Albemarle 10-K FY2025; Q4 and FY2025 results, Feb 2026; company fact sheet, Jun 2025; Entegris 10-K FY2025; Q4 and FY2025 results, Feb 10, 2026; Trade and Industry Development on EMD Electronics' Sheboygan Falls site, Oct 5, 2026; BIC Magazine on Grace and Albemarle polyolefin catalysts, Apr 4, 2018; Rio Tinto 6-K on the Arcadium Lithium completion, Mar 2025.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com39
AGA·DWG / SHEET 40 · SEGMENT 2 · WHO PLAYS, BEYOND THE US BENCH · AS OF OCT 12, 2026
ORGANOMETALLICS · MORE US MAKERS, INDIA, CHINA AND THE CATALOG HOUSES
India and China have real organometallic makers. China's run at scale. India's are a plant or two each.
WHO
WHERE
WHAT IT MAKES
WORTH KNOWING
MORE US MAKERS
Rio Tinto Lithium
Bessemer City, NC
Butyllithium at its Specialty Organics Plant; a lithium site since 1955
Came with Arcadium, a $6.7bn deal closed Mar 2025
Ereztech
Saukville and Sheboygan Falls, WI
1,300-plus organometallic products, catalog and custom; founded 2010
Private; a catalog house that also makes
American Elements
Los Angeles, CA (HQ)
Organometallics for thin films and catalysts
Private; expanded organometallic output, Jan 2023
INDIA
Neogen Chemicals
Thane, Maharashtra (HQ)
n-Butyllithium and other organolithiums; bought BuLi Chemicals India from Livent, May 2023
Says it is one of very few plants for this chemistry outside China
Azeocryst Organics
Mumbai
Grignard reagents
Says it is the only Grignard producer in India
CHINA
Ganfeng Lithium
Xinyu, Jiangxi
Butyllithium, 2,000 t a year
Ran China's first commercial n-BuLi line, 2003
Jiangsu Nata Opto-electronic
Quanjiao, Anhui; Suzhou
MO sources (TMGa, TMAl) and ALD and CVD precursors
Calls Quanjiao the world's largest MO-source site; sells in the US as Sonata
Zhejiang Friend (Nouryon)
Zhejiang
TEAL and metal alkyls
Bought by Nouryon in 2019, capacity doubled in 2025
The catalog houses: MilliporeSigma, Thermo Fisher (Alfa Aesar), TCI, Oakwood, Gelest, American Elements and Ereztech all list organometallic reagents by the gram or the kilo. My read: that's where most R&D orders start, and where a buyer first finds a supplier.
What the imports say: US imports under HS 2931.90 fell from $854m in 2017 to $508m in 2025. China's share fell from 54% to 33%, and India's rose from 5% to 9% (sheet 36).
Sources: Rio Tinto, Bessemer City operations page, 2026; NC DEQ fact sheet on the Bessemer City site, Sep 18, 2025; Rio Tinto 6-K on the Arcadium completion, Mar 2025; Ereztech, Who we are and Our facilities, 2026; American Elements on expanding organometallic production, Jan 2023; Neogen Chemicals, BuLi Chemicals page and Annual Report FY2024; Azeocryst Organics homepage, 2026; Ganfeng Lithium company profile and 2024 annual report summary (SZSE), Mar 28, 2025; Sonata Materials, Nata overview, 2026; PCI Magazine on Zhejiang Friend, Jul 26, 2019; Nouryon release on metal alkyls, Oct 16, 2025; MilliporeSigma, Thermo Fisher, TCI, Oakwood, Gelest catalog pages, 2026; UN Comtrade, US-reported imports by HS code and partner, 2016 to 2025, CIF value (comtradeapi.un.org public API, pulled Oct 12, 2026).
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com40
AGA·DWG / SHEET 41 · SEGMENT 2 · THE DEALS · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
ORGANOMETALLICS · THE DEALS, 2016 TO 2026
Nine moves in ten years and one disclosed price, Grace's $416m. Every independent sold at an undisclosed price.
Lacamas Laboratories, Portland, OR: energetic precursors and stabilizers
$86.2m award
US supply of seven defense chemicals
Oct 2025
Nouryon
TEAL doubled at Jiaxing; MMAO from 2027
Undisclosed capex
Localized supply for China
Oct 2026
EMD Electronics
Sheboygan Falls R&D site; $200m across WI, CA, OK
$200m program
US semiconductor materials
ADJACENT, NOT COUNTED: SHOWN FOR PRICE CONTEXT ONLY
Oct 2023
Fujifilm
Entegris electronic chemicals (fab acids, high purity, sheet 78)
$700m
Entegris: focus on semiconductor materials
Mar 2025
Rio Tinto
Arcadium Lithium (a lithium company with butyllithium inside)
$6.7bn, $5.85 a share
"World-class lithium business"
May 2025
Honeywell
JM Catalyst Technologies (process catalysts; closed Jul 2026)
£1.8bn EV announced; £1.325bn cash at close
JM: 13.3x agreed EBITDA (seller-stated)
The pattern: strategics pay for catalyst IP and precursor positions; sponsors buy the independents and don't say what they paid. The one multiple is adjacent, seller-stated, and 13.3x.
Sources: BIC Magazine on Grace and Albemarle polyolefin catalysts, Apr 4, 2018; company sites and trade-show decks of the US independents, 2025 to 2026; Optima Chemical, SOCMA Showcase deck, Feb 2025; DoD on $192.5m of DPA awards incl. Lacamas Laboratories, Feb 2024; Nouryon release on metal alkyls, Oct 16, 2025; PCI Magazine on Zhejiang Friend, Jul 26, 2019; Hydrocarbon Processing, Oct 2019; CHEManager on Lanxess organometallics to PMC, Nov 15, 2019; Mitsubishi Chemical America on Gelest, Oct 2, 2020; Entegris on the sale of Electronic Chemicals to Fujifilm, May 10 and Oct 2, 2023; Rio Tinto 6-K on the Arcadium Lithium completion, Mar 2025; Johnson Matthey on the sale of Catalyst Technologies, May 22, 2025; Honeywell Technologies completion of JM Catalyst Technologies, Jul 17, 2026; Trade and Industry Development on EMD Electronics' Sheboygan Falls site, Oct 5, 2026.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com41
AGA·DWG / SHEET 42 · SEGMENT 2 · THE CALL · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
ORGANOMETALLICS · MY CALL, AND WHAT WOULD CHANGE IT
My call: buy the qualified position and the catalyst know-how. Treat the reagent catalog as the way in.
WHAT COULD BREAK IT
WHAT I'D WATCH
HOW I'D KNOW I'M WRONG
Precursor capacity outruns the fabs
Entegris Materials Solutions, FY2026
A second flat year while three sites expand
Butyllithium pricing keeps falling
Albemarle lithium specialties margin
A second year of compression
Chinese TEAL reaches US customers
Nouryon's China ramp; import data
US polyolefin lines sourcing co-catalyst from Jiaxing
A sponsor exit prints low
A sponsor-owned US independent changes hands
A platform trading like a reagent distributor
SPONSOR
Buy the slot
Screen for a qualified precursor or catalyst position, not catalog breadth. The next platform is the one with an aerospace or fab agreement.
OWNER
Sell the qualification
Name the trains and fabs you're qualified into and the agreements behind them. Your catalog proves breadth; your qualifications prove value.
BANKER
Price it against the catalyst deals
Grace's $416m and JM's 13.3x are the only stated prices nearby. Use them for the qualified end; the reagent end comps to lithium.
WHAT WOULD CHANGE MY MIND
A disclosed sponsor exit at a distributor's price, or two flat years at the precursor proxies. Either one moves this from a buy to a hold.
Sources: Entegris 10-K FY2025; Q4 and FY2025 results, Feb 10, 2026; Albemarle 10-K FY2025; Q4 and FY2025 results, Feb 2026; company fact sheet, Jun 2025; Nouryon release on metal alkyls, Oct 16, 2025; PCI Magazine on Zhejiang Friend, Jul 26, 2019; Hydrocarbon Processing, Oct 2019; company sites and trade-show decks of the US independents, 2025 to 2026.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com42
AGA·DWG / SHEET 43 · PART 2 · SKILL 3 OF 9
August GraceADVISORY
PART 2 OF 4 · THE NINE SKILLS · SKILL 3 OF 9
Silicon
Silanes, siloxanes and silicones. Big plants at the front end, specialty work at the back, and almost every US independent has already sold.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com43
AGA·DWG / SHEET 44 · SEGMENT 3 OF 9 · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
SEGMENT 03 · SILICON CHEMISTRY
Big plants at the front end, specialty work at the back. Almost every US independent of any size has sold to a bigger group.
Why it matters: SiVance went to Milliken (2011), NuSil to Avantor (2016), ICM to CHT (2017), Momentive to a Korean group (2019) and Gelest to Mitsubishi (2020). What's left private is a catalog house in Pennsylvania and a Canadian specialist. The majors are moving from plain siloxane to specialty products, and Gelest built a clean-room precursor plant before any customer signed. Plain siloxane prices like a commodity. Qualified silicon earns more.
WHAT IT MAKES
Silanes, siloxanes, silicones, precursors
Coupling and silylating agents; cyclic siloxanes and fluids; elastomers, implant silicones, and fab precursors at the materials end.
WHY IT'S SCARCE
Chlorosilanes, platinum know-how, qualification
Chlorosilane handling with a clean site history; hydrosilylation know-how; fab and implant qualifications that take years.
WHO'S PAYING
Strategics, at undisclosed prices
Milliken, Avantor, CHT, Mitsubishi and KCC bought the independents; Bluestar took York in 2026. Only Momentive printed a price: about $3.1bn.
Where I land: a watch (sheet 18). The US maker worth owning has a qualified medical or specialty position. A line that buys siloxane and sells sealant can be a good business, but a buyer will price it closer to a commodity.
Sources: GenNx360 on the sale of SiVance to Milliken, Oct 6, 2011; Textile World on Milliken and SiVance, Oct 10, 2011; C&EN on Milliken's Gainesville R&D lab, 2015; New Mountain Capital on the Avantor and NuSil merger, Aug 31, 2016; Adhesives & Sealants Industry on CHT and ICM Silicones, Sep 5, 2017; Momentive HQ relocation release, Jul 1, 2022; citybiz on KCC's buyout, May 14, 2024; Mitsubishi Chemical America on Gelest, Oct 2, 2020; Gelest groundbreaking release, Jul 7, 2023; Chemical Week on the Morrisville precursor plant, May 30, 2025; Dow 10-K FY2025; European Rubber Journal on Dow's Q4 2024 call, Feb 3, 2025; Wacker on the Charleston incident, Sep 20, 2017; PV-Tech, Apr 26, 2018; Wacker Americas expansion, Dec 14, 2017; Elkem Silicones York site page; Chemical Engineering, Feb 13, 2026; SpecialChem, May 7, 2026, on the Bluestar sale.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com44
AGA·DWG / SHEET 45 · SEGMENT 3 · WHO PLAYS · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
SILICON · WHO PLAYS
Eleven US silicon makers, and only one is still independent. The buyers were mostly big foreign groups.
WHO
WHERE
WHAT IT RUNS
OWNER
WORTH KNOWING
Gelest
Morrisville, PA
Organosilanes, metal-organics, methacrylates; EUV and deposition precursors
Mitsubishi Chemical, Oct 2020
Clean-room precursor plant live 2025; ~240 staff (2019)
UCT (Petrarch line)
Bristol, PA
Specialty silanes, silicones, catalysts; 5 g to drums, no minimum
Private
The last independent catalog house
NuSil
Carpinteria, CA
Medical- and space-grade silicones: implants, drug delivery
Also: Siltech (Toronto; a $75m hydrosilylation plant in 2025) serves the US from Canada; Silar, an organosilicon unit, went to Entegris inside MPD Chemicals in 2019.
India and China: China's 2022 to 2023 siloxane additions set the front-end price, and a Chinese group now owns the former Elkem network, York included. I found no Indian maker selling into the US. US silicone imports (HS 3910) rose from $450m in 2016 to $673m in 2025; Germany and Japan sent 56%, China 9%.
Sources: GenNx360 on the sale of SiVance to Milliken, Oct 6, 2011; C&EN on Milliken's Gainesville R&D lab, 2015; MPD Chemicals on Norquay, Jan 11, 2018; Entegris on MPD Chemicals, Jul 15, 2019; Mitsubishi Chemical America on Gelest, Oct 2, 2020; Gelest groundbreaking release, Jul 7, 2023; Chemical Week on the Morrisville precursor plant, May 30, 2025; UCT Petrarch specialty chemicals catalog; New Mountain Capital on the Avantor and NuSil merger, Aug 31, 2016; Momentive HQ relocation release, Jul 1, 2022; citybiz on KCC's buyout, May 14, 2024; Shin-Etsu Annual Report 2025, Financial Section; Chemical Engineering on Akron, Aug 31, 2017; Wacker on the Charleston incident, Sep 20, 2017; PV-Tech, Apr 26, 2018; Wacker Americas expansion, Dec 14, 2017; Elkem Silicones York site page; Chemical Engineering, Feb 13, 2026; SpecialChem, May 7, 2026, on the Bluestar sale; Adhesives & Sealants Industry on CHT and ICM Silicones, Sep 5, 2017; Evonik on the Silbond purchase, Feb 28, 2014; Dow 10-K FY2025; European Rubber Journal on Dow's Q4 2024 call, Feb 3, 2025; American Coatings Association on Siltech's Fort Erie plant, Nov 5, 2025; Entegris silanes product page, Oct 2026.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com45
AGA·DWG / SHEET 46 · SEGMENT 3 · THE DEALS · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
SILICON · THE DEALS, 2011 TO 2026
Eight deals since 2011 and one full price. Momentive's take-private is the only number, apart from a range for Silbond.
DATE
WHO
WHAT
TERMS
PAID FOR
Oct 2011
Milliken & Company
SiVance (Gainesville, FL; ~150 staff), from GenNx360
Undisclosed
Silanes, siloxanes and silicone intermediates
Feb 2014
Evonik
Silbond (Weston, MI; TEOS; ~60 staff)
Mid-double-digit million euros
"A local TEOS production base in North America"
Aug 2016
Avantor (New Mountain)
NuSil (Carpinteria, CA)
Undisclosed; combined revenue >$700m
"Ultra-high-purity materials" for medical and space
Sep 2017
CHT Group
ICM Silicones (Cassopolis, MI; Richmond, VA)
Undisclosed
"Doubles our current silicone business"
May 2019
SJL, KCC, Wonik QnC
Momentive (Waterford, NY)
$32.50 a share, ~$3.1bn with debt and pension
Portfolios plus KCC's reach
Oct 2020
Mitsubishi Chemical
Gelest (Morrisville, PA), from New Mountain
Undisclosed
"Enhancing its technology platform"
May 2024
KCC
SJL's remaining Momentive stake
Undisclosed
"From a private equity mindset to a strategic, long-term approach"
May 2026
Bluestar
Majority of Elkem Silicones (incl. York, SC)
Share redemption; cash value undisclosed
Elkem: "sharpening our strategic focus"
Dec 2017
Wacker
Charleston HDK fumed silica, 13,000 t/yr; Ann Arbor R&D
~$150m; "triple-digit million" NA total
Capacity
Aug 2017
Shin-Etsu
Akron, OH expansion to mid-2019
¥2.4bn
HCR, LSR, cosmetic, thermal silicones
Jul 2023 to May 2025
Gelest (Mitsubishi)
Morrisville precursor plant, 50,000 sq ft, ISO 7
Undisclosed
EUV dry-resist precursors
Nov 2025
Siltech
Fort Erie, ON plant, 180,000 sq ft
>$75m
Organo-modified silicones
No multiple is printed: no buyer or seller stated one. Momentive's price was a take-private of a global major, not a comp for a US independent.
Sources: GenNx360 on the sale of SiVance to Milliken, Oct 6, 2011; Textile World on Milliken and SiVance, Oct 10, 2011; C&EN on Milliken's Gainesville R&D lab, 2015; Evonik on the Silbond purchase, Feb 28, 2014; New Mountain Capital on the Avantor and NuSil merger, Aug 31, 2016; Adhesives & Sealants Industry on CHT and ICM Silicones, Sep 5, 2017; MPM Holdings completion 8-K, May 15, 2019; Mitsubishi Chemical America on Gelest, Oct 2, 2020; Momentive HQ relocation release, Jul 1, 2022; citybiz on KCC's buyout, May 14, 2024; Elkem Silicones York site page; Chemical Engineering, Feb 13, 2026; SpecialChem, May 7, 2026, on the Bluestar sale; Wacker on the Charleston incident, Sep 20, 2017; PV-Tech, Apr 26, 2018; Wacker Americas expansion, Dec 14, 2017; Shin-Etsu Annual Report 2025, Financial Section; Chemical Engineering on Akron, Aug 31, 2017; Gelest groundbreaking release, Jul 7, 2023; Chemical Week on the Morrisville precursor plant, May 30, 2025; American Coatings Association on Siltech's Fort Erie plant, Nov 5, 2025.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com46
AGA·DWG / SHEET 47 · SEGMENT 3 · THE CALL · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
SILICON · MY CALL, AND WHAT WOULD CHANGE IT
My call: watch. A US silicon maker earns more when a medical or specialty customer has qualified it. Plain siloxane prices against China.
WHAT COULD BREAK IT
WHAT I'D WATCH
HOW I'D KNOW I'M WRONG
Gelest's chip precursor plant stays small
Gelest and Lam announcements through 2027
No volume agreements
China siloxane stays in surplus
Dow and Wacker utilization commentary
A third year of "overcapacity persists"
Medical-grade switching cost erodes
A device maker re-sourcing implant silicone
A second qualified supplier on a major implant file
A strategic sells a US site back
Any divestiture by Mitsubishi, KCC, Avantor, or Bluestar
An independent re-emerges at a disclosed low price
SPONSOR
There's almost nothing left to buy
The independents sold between 2016 and 2020. The angle is a carve-out from a strategic, or one of the last two specialists if they ever sell.
OWNER
Show the qualification
An implant file, a customer audit, or a platinum chemistry only you run. Everything else comps to siloxane.
BANKER
The buyers are strategics, and they don't say
Six of eight deals undisclosed. Price a qualified specialty line against buyers like Milliken and Mitsubishi, not the silicone majors.
WHAT WOULD CHANGE MY MIND
A disclosed sale of a qualified US silicon site at a plain finishing-line price. That would tell me the qualification isn't worth much.
Sources: Gelest groundbreaking release, Jul 7, 2023; Chemical Week on the Morrisville precursor plant, May 30, 2025; Dow 10-K FY2025; European Rubber Journal on Dow's Q4 2024 call, Feb 3, 2025; Wacker Chemie annual reports 2020 and 2025, Silicones segment; 2024 results release, Mar 2025; New Mountain Capital on the Avantor and NuSil merger, Aug 31, 2016.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com47
AGA·DWG / SHEET 48 · PART 2 · SKILL 4 OF 9
August GraceADVISORY
PART 2 OF 4 · THE NINE SKILLS · SKILL 4 OF 9
High pressure
Gas chemistry under pressure, with hydrogen and ethylene oxide, inside two federal safety programs.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com48
AGA·DWG / SHEET 49 · SEGMENT 4 OF 9 · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
SEGMENT 04 · HIGH PRESSURE, HYDROGENATION, AND ALKOXYLATION
This is gas chemistry under high pressure, inside two federal safety programs. One US independent publishes a 4,500 psi line, and an Indian group now owns it.
Why it matters: the gap between a 250 psi glass-lined reactor and a 4,500 psi alloy one is this whole segment. Hydrogen and ethylene oxide trigger federal safety rules at a few thousand pounds. EPA's 2024 limits on ethylene oxide are now delayed by 2026 rollbacks and a two-year pass for 20 plants. Big groups have been selling these units to buyers with feedstock or a platform: Huntsman to Indorama, Albemarle to Grace, Pressure Chemical to Novopor.
WHAT IT MAKES
Ethoxylates, amines, hydrogenated intermediates
Specialty surfactants and polyols at the alkoxylation end; hydrogenation and reductive amination steps inside drug, agro, and performance routes.
WHY IT'S SCARCE
The vessel and the permit
A 4,500 psi alloy train with catalyst recovery, or a closed-loop EO permit under PSM, RMP, and the HON. Neither comes in a deal timeline.
WHO'S PAYING
Feedstock owners and platforms
Indorama ($2.0bn for Huntsman's units; $1.3bn for Oxiteno at a buyer-stated 6.3x), Grace (~$570m), Novopor (undisclosed), Evonik ($100m into Lafayette).
Where I land: an existing ethylene oxide permit, or a high-pressure line with a Western customer, ties with organometallics as my fourth pick (sheet 18). The rollbacks don't make a new permit easier to get.
Sources: Pressure Chemical company profile (SOCMA), 2026; Chemical Online on the Novopor purchase, May 7, 2025; W. R. Grace 8-K on the Albemarle fine chemistry closing, Jun 1, 2021; Grace Tyrone, PA site page; OSHA 29 CFR 1910.119 and Appendix A (process safety management thresholds); EPA fact sheets on the sterilizer NESHAP, Mar 14, 2024, and the HON final rule, Apr 2024; Linklaters alert, Apr 16, 2024; EPA proposed rule on RMP, 91 FR 8970, Feb 24, 2026; EPA proposed reconsideration of the sterilizer rule, 91 FR 12700, Mar 17, 2026; Proclamation 11041, 91 FR 44719, Jul 16, 2026; Huntsman 8-K on the sale to Indorama, Jan 5, 2020; Indorama Ventures on the Oxiteno completion, Apr 4, 2022; Coatings World, Aug 17, 2021; Novopor announcement on Pressure Chemical, May 7, 2025; Evonik on the $100m Tippecanoe upgrade, Jul 8, 2026 (via BioSpace).
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com49
AGA·DWG / SHEET 50 · SEGMENT 4 · SIZE · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
HIGH PRESSURE · HOW BIG IT IS
There's no public data for this segment. The best proxy grew 3% a year, and the commodity end gave up its margin.
THE COMMODITY END
Losing to imports
Stepan's CEO cites "a challenging North American Surfactant environment"; commodity laundry and cleaning volumes fell in Q4 2025.
THE SPECIALTY END
Growing
Industrial cleaning up double digits, agricultural and oilfield up. That's where the Carolina alkoxylation houses live.
THE CAPACITY
Still being added
Sasol's 100,000 t/yr Lake Charles unit (2020); Oxiteno's Pasadena site (2022); Stepan's Pasadena start-up (2025); Evonik's Lafayette reactors (2026 on).
What's missing: a government series for US EO production or specialty surfactant shipments. Dow's capacity is a single point. Any dollar size for custom high-pressure work would be a guess, so none is printed.
Sources: Stepan 10-K FY2025 and FY2015; Q4 2025 results, Feb 23, 2026; 8-K on the INVISTA polyols purchase, Jan 29, 2021; Sasol SENS on the Lake Charles ethoxylates unit, Jan 30, 2020; Indorama Ventures on the Oxiteno completion, Apr 4, 2022; Coatings World, Aug 17, 2021; Evonik on the $100m Tippecanoe upgrade, Jul 8, 2026 (via BioSpace); Dow key capacities, Investor Day 2024.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com50
AGA·DWG / SHEET 51 · SEGMENT 4 · WHY IT EARNS MORE · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
HIGH PRESSURE · WHY IT EARNS MORE
The premium is the permit you hold and a vessel no customer wants to build for one step. The 2026 rollbacks slow things down. They don't make a new permit easier.
THE PROGRAM
PSM and RMP at a few thousand pounds
EO triggers OSHA's PSM at 5,000 lb and EPA's RMP at 10,000 lb. A site already in the programs takes a new product in months; a greenfield can't.
THE CLOCK
Fenceline numbers, delayed for some
The 2024 HON started EO fenceline monitoring on a two-year clock. Proclamations in Jul 2025 and Jul 2026 gave listed plants two more years; unlisted plants stay on the 2024 clock.
THE VESSEL
1,800 to 4,500 psi, nickel clad
Pressure Chemical's train with sintered-metal filtration and catalyst-recovery centrifuges is a capital set no customer wants for one reaction.
THE BATCH
One kilo to tens of tons
"Low-volume, high-value manufacturing" is Pressure Chemical's own description; Norquay's is "low-volume commercialization of specific molecules."
THE FILE
AS9100, ICH, IPEC
Qualification files are tied to the site. Evonik's reason for $100m at Lafayette: molecules are "becoming more complex" and customers want regional supply.
THE FEEDSTOCK
Closed-loop EO
Stepan at three sites, Sasol at Lake Charles, Indorama on its own EO: no open handling, which is what the 2024 rules penalize.
MY READ
What this means for price: a buyer of an EO handler is buying a permit that's still hard to issue, and a disclosure record that may go public later than the 2024 rules said. A buyer of a high-pressure house is buying a vessel set and a qualification file. In both cases the reactor count is the least of it.
Sources: OSHA 29 CFR 1910.119 and Appendix A (process safety management thresholds); 40 CFR 68.130, RMP threshold quantities (eCFR, Oct 9, 2026); EPA fact sheets on the sterilizer NESHAP, Mar 14, 2024, and the HON final rule, Apr 2024; Linklaters alert, Apr 16, 2024; Proclamations 10957, 90 FR 34587, Jul 23, 2025, and 11041, 91 FR 44719, Jul 16, 2026; Pressure Chemical company profile (SOCMA), 2026; Chemical Online on the Novopor purchase, May 7, 2025; Cassel Salpeter on the sale of Norquay Technology to MPD Chemicals, Jan 22, 2018; Evonik on the $100m Tippecanoe upgrade, Jul 8, 2026 (via BioSpace); Stepan 10-K FY2025 and FY2015; Q4 2025 results, Feb 23, 2026; 8-K on the INVISTA polyols purchase, Jan 29, 2021; Sasol SENS on the Lake Charles ethoxylates unit, Jan 30, 2020.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com51
AGA·DWG / SHEET 52 · SEGMENT 4 · WHO PLAYS · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
HIGH PRESSURE · WHO PLAYS
Nine US makers. One publishes a 4,500 psi production line, a few run ethylene oxide, and the rest hydrogenate at 250 psi.
WHO
WHERE
WHAT IT RUNS
OWNER
WORTH KNOWING
Pressure Chemical
Pittsburgh, PA
Five pressure chemistries plus polymerization; 1,800 to 4,500 psi, 300 mL to 250 gal
Novopor (India), May 2025; Minafin 2012 to 2025
Only published 4,500 psi train; AS9100; safety program since 1986
Custom molecules: chromic, electronic, catalyst, medical adhesive
Entegris, with MPD Chemicals, Jul 2019
Sold twice: to MPD (2018), then inside MPD to Entegris
Evonik Tippecanoe
Lafayette, IN
API and HPAPI drug substance; large reactors being modernized
Evonik (from Lilly, 2010)
$100m over five years; >650 staff
Grace fine chemicals
Tyrone, PA; South Haven, MI
Non-GMP pharma intermediates; reactors to ~250 psi
W. R. Grace, from Albemarle, 2021
Ex-Albemarle; not high pressure by this definition
Stepan
Pasadena, TX; Winder, GA; Millsdale, IL
Alkoxylation with closed-loop EO; Pasadena started 2025
Public
Surfactants $1,666m; 2,328 staff
Sasol; Indorama
Lake Charles, LA; Pasadena, TX
100 kt/yr ethoxylates (2020); ex-Huntsman and Oxiteno EO, PO, surfactants
Public
The integrated owners
The equipment reference: Parr Instrument, Moline, Illinois, about 100 people, builds the lab and mini-pilot pressure reactors and shaker hydrogenators. Production-scale alloy vessels are custom-fabricated; there is no catalog item at 1,000 gallons and 3,000 psi.
India and China: One Carolina toll site buys Chinese intermediates through its own office in China. Asian tollers compete on price for commodity ethoxylates and simple reductions; no public name competes at 4,500 psi in the US.
Sources: Pressure Chemical company profile (SOCMA), 2026; Chemical Online on the Novopor purchase, May 7, 2025; Ethox Chemicals, About page, 2026; PCC Group investment page on PCC Chemax, Piedmont, SC; SOCMA member profiles, 2026; MPD Chemicals on acquiring Norquay Technology (PR Newswire), Jan 11, 2018; Entegris on acquiring MPD Chemicals, Jul 15, 2019 (SEC exhibit); Entegris permit-modification notice for 800 West Front Street, Chester, PA, Sep 5, 2024; Evonik on the $100m Tippecanoe upgrade, Jul 8, 2026 (via BioSpace); W. R. Grace 8-K on the Albemarle fine chemistry closing, Jun 1, 2021; Grace Tyrone, PA site page; Stepan 10-K FY2025 and FY2015; Q4 2025 results, Feb 23, 2026; 8-K on the INVISTA polyols purchase, Jan 29, 2021; Sasol SENS on the Lake Charles ethoxylates unit, Jan 30, 2020; Indorama Ventures on the Oxiteno completion, Apr 4, 2022; Coatings World, Aug 17, 2021; Parr Instrument Company, About page; Novopor announcement on Pressure Chemical, May 7, 2025.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com52
AGA·DWG / SHEET 53 · SEGMENT 4 · THE DEALS · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
HIGH PRESSURE · THE DEALS, 2016 TO 2026
Seven deals, five with prices, and two multiples stated by the buyer. Both US independents ended up with platform buyers.
DATE
WHO
WHAT
TERMS
PAID FOR
Jan 2018
MPD Chemicals (Addison Capital)
Norquay Technology (PA)
Undisclosed
"Broaden its specialty chemical manufacturing capabilities"
Jul 2019
Entegris
MPD Chemicals, incl. Norquay (Chester, PA)
~$165m cash
Organosilane and organometallic materials for chips
"An integrated platform combining early-stage development with large-scale manufacturing"
Jan 2020
Sasol
Lake Charles ethoxylates unit on line
100,000 t/yr
Capacity
2025
Stepan
Pasadena, TX alkoxylation start-up
Capex not disclosed
Closed-loop EO capacity
Jul 2026
Evonik
Tippecanoe, Lafayette, IN: large reactors, automation
$100m over five years
US drug-substance services; "molecules are becoming more complex"
The pattern: feedstock owners paid disclosed prices for scale. The two US independents went to platform buyers: Norquay to MPD in 2018 and, inside MPD, to Entegris for ~$165m in 2019; Pressure Chemical to Novopor, undisclosed. Grace's 9.5x on about $60m of run-rate EBITDA is the one stated multiple for US sites; Oxiteno's 6.3x is for a Brazilian surfactant business with a Texas plant.
Sources: W. R. Grace on the Albemarle fine chemistry agreement, Feb 25, 2021; MPD Chemicals on acquiring Norquay Technology (PR Newswire), Jan 11, 2018; Entegris on acquiring MPD Chemicals, Jul 15, 2019 (SEC exhibit); Entegris permit-modification notice for 800 West Front Street, Chester, PA, Sep 5, 2024; Huntsman 8-K on the sale to Indorama, Jan 5, 2020; Stepan 10-K FY2025 and FY2015; Q4 2025 results, Feb 23, 2026; 8-K on the INVISTA polyols purchase, Jan 29, 2021; Albemarle on the sale of Fine Chemistry Services to W. R. Grace, Jun 1, 2021; Indorama Ventures on the Oxiteno completion, Apr 4, 2022; Coatings World, Aug 17, 2021; Novopor announcement on Pressure Chemical, May 7, 2025; Sasol SENS on the Lake Charles ethoxylates unit, Jan 30, 2020; Evonik on the $100m Tippecanoe upgrade, Jul 8, 2026 (via BioSpace).
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com53
AGA·DWG / SHEET 54 · SEGMENT 4 · WHAT TO WATCH · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
HIGH PRESSURE · WHAT TO WATCH · THE 2024 RULES AND THE 2026 ROLLBACKS
The 2024 safety and emissions rules are being rolled back. An existing permit is still hard to replace.
ACCIDENT PREVENTION · RMP
2024 RULE
Mar 2024: the Safer Communities rule, ~11,740 facilities. It added a safer-technology analysis, third-party audits and public information.
2026
Feb 24, 2026: EPA proposed rescinding or reworking most of the 2024 additions (91 FR 8970).
NOW
Proposed, not final. Comments closed in May; no final rule found by Oct 11, 2026.
EO STERILIZERS · NESHAP
2024 RULE
Mar 14, 2024: about 88 sites, with an EO cut of more than 90%.
2026
Mar 17, 2026: EPA proposed reconsidering the risk-based sterilizer limits (91 FR 12700), after Jul 2025 proclamation relief.
NOW
Proposed, not final. The rollback is a fact, not a risk.
CHEMICAL PLANTS · HON
2024 RULE
May 16, 2024: about 207 plants, with fenceline monitoring.
2026
Jul 9, 2026: Proclamation 11041 gives 20 listed plants two more years on every HON deadline, fenceline included.
NOW
In force for the listed plants, which stay on the pre-2024 rules meanwhile. The public EO data comes later, if it comes.
WHAT STAYS HARD, AND WHAT MOVES IN A SALE
A new permit is still slow
None of the 2026 actions I found makes a new RMP site, a HON air permit or a PSM program faster to get.
A Title V permit can move with the plant
By administrative amendment, with a written transfer agreement (40 CFR 70.7).
A DEA registration needs DEA's consent
It can't be assigned or transferred without DEA's written consent (21 CFR 1301.52).
MY READ
The 2024 rules would have rewarded a clean EO handler from 2027. That's now later and less certain. I'd still buy the permit, because the scarce thing is the right to run EO at all. What would change my mind: a final rule that also makes new EO capacity easy to permit.
Sources: EPA RMP Safer Communities final rule, 89 FR, Mar 11, 2024; EPA sterilizer NESHAP fact sheet, Mar 14, 2024; EPA SOCMI NSPS and HON final rule, May 16, 2024; Proclamations 10957 and 10959, Jul 2025; EPA proposed RMP rule, 91 FR 8970, Feb 24, 2026; EPA proposed EtO sterilizer reconsideration, 91 FR 12700, Mar 17, 2026; Proclamation 11041, 91 FR 44719, Jul 16, 2026; 40 CFR 70.7 and 21 CFR 1301.52 (eCFR, Sep 2026); Federal Register search for final actions, Oct 11, 2026.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com54
AGA·DWG / SHEET 55 · SEGMENT 4 · THE CALL · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
HIGH PRESSURE · MY CALL, AND WHAT WOULD CHANGE IT
My call: buy an existing ethylene oxide permit or a high-pressure line with qualified customers. The 2026 rollbacks don't make a new permit any easier to get.
WHAT COULD BREAK IT
WHAT I'D WATCH
HOW I'D KNOW I'M WRONG
The 2026 rollbacks go final and go further
Final rules on 91 FR 8970 and 91 FR 12700; any HON reconsideration
New EO capacity gets easier to permit, on top of lighter old rules
Commodity ethoxylates keep leaking to imports
Stepan's surfactant volume and operating income
A third year of falling segment income on rising sales
Indian and Chinese tollers take the simple reductions
Pricing at the 250 psi end; offshore toll quotes
US hydrogenation campaigns moving offshore at the customer's request
The next US independent sale prints low
Any disclosed price for a high-pressure or EO house
A permitted site trading on reactor count
SPONSOR
Screen for the permit
Closed-loop EO under existing programs, or a published alloy train above 1,000 psi. Pressure Chemical was the template until Novopor bought it in May 2025.
OWNER
Publish your fenceline record anyway
A clean record posted early is the pitch; a reactor list is not. Add the AS9100 or ICH file next to it.
BANKER
The buyers are feedstock owners and platforms
Indorama and Grace paid for scale; MPD, then Entegris, and Novopor paid for a platform. Position on the permit and the file; price alkoxylation against Oxiteno's stated 6.3x.
WHAT WOULD CHANGE MY MIND
A disclosed sale of a permitted US EO or high-pressure site at a toll-plant price, or a rule change that makes new EO capacity easy to permit. Either one and this drops to a watch.
Sources: EPA fact sheets on the sterilizer NESHAP, Mar 14, 2024, and the HON final rule, Apr 2024; Linklaters alert, Apr 16, 2024; EPA proposed rule on RMP, 91 FR 8970, Feb 24, 2026; EPA proposed reconsideration of the sterilizer rule, 91 FR 12700, Mar 17, 2026; Proclamation 11041, 91 FR 44719, Jul 16, 2026; Stepan 10-K FY2025 and FY2015; Q4 2025 results, Feb 23, 2026; 8-K on the INVISTA polyols purchase, Jan 29, 2021; Novopor announcement on Pressure Chemical, May 7, 2025; Pressure Chemical company profile (SOCMA), 2026; Chemical Online on the Novopor purchase, May 7, 2025.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com55
AGA·DWG / SHEET 56 · PART 2 · SKILL 5 OF 9
August GraceADVISORY
PART 2 OF 4 · THE NINE SKILLS · SKILL 5 OF 9
Polymers and CASE
Two businesses in one: plants that make new monomers, and plants that mix them into adhesives and composites for aircraft and missiles.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com56
AGA·DWG / SHEET 57 · SEGMENT 5 OF 9 · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
SEGMENT 05 · SPECIALTY POLYMERS, MONOMERS, AND CASE
This segment is two businesses. Some plants make new monomers. Others mix them into adhesives and composites, and that's a different skill.
Why it matters: a new aerospace line can take a year to certify (Hexcel), and approval "does not assure any sales" (Park). Since Nov 10, 2025, a defense supplier that handles controlled data has to pay for CMMC Level 2. The US makers of monomers and photoinitiators are private, family-owned and 40 to 60 years old. The deals so far were strategics and sponsors buying adhesive formulators, and the one stated multiple is H.B. Fuller's: under 6x after synergies.
WHAT IT MAKES
Two different jobs
Reactive chemistry: custom monomers, photoinitiators and oligomers. Formulation and converting: resin systems, prepregs, film adhesives and adhesives, made by mixing molecules others make.
WHY IT'S SCARCE
The spec and the cyber gate
Sole-source spec positions; a file of custom recipes; ISO 13485 with device-customer history; CMMC Level 2 from late 2025.
WHO'S PAYING
Strategics and roll-ups
Westlake paid ~$1.2bn for Hexion's epoxy; Arkema $1.65bn for Ashland's adhesives; KKR took Chase; American Securities took Meridian.
Where I land: the small US monomer and photoinitiator makers are a watch (sheet 18). The skill is real and the field is fragmented, and CMMC will thin it before defense demand pays off.
Sources: Hexcel 10-K FY2019 and FY2020; 2021 Annual Report; Q4 2025 results, Jan 28, 2026; Park Aerospace 10-K for the fiscal year ended Mar 1, 2026; CMMC Program final rule, 32 CFR 170, Oct 15, 2024; DFARS CMMC rule, Sep 10, 2025; Ashland on the sale of Performance Adhesives to Arkema, Feb 28, 2022; Westlake on the Hexion epoxy closing, Jan 31, 2022; Chase Corporation on the completion of its acquisition by KKR, Nov 14, 2023; Adhesives & Sealants Industry on American Securities and Meridian Adhesives, Sep 13, 2022.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com57
AGA·DWG / SHEET 58 · SEGMENT 5 · WHO PLAYS · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
POLYMERS AND CASE · WHO PLAYS
Four private US houses make the molecules. Four more mix or convert them. Only the first four do reactive chemistry.
WHO
WHERE
WHAT IT RUNS
OWNER
WORTH KNOWING
MAKES THE MOLECULE · REACTIVE CHEMISTRY
Polysciences
Warrington, PA
Specialty monomers and polymers, microspheres, hydrogels, bioprocessing; GMP and non-GMP suites
Family-owned since 1993
ISO 13485 since 2013; founded 1961; US-only manufacturing
Scientific Polymer Products
Ontario, NY
Research monomers and polymers (1,000+ items); custom synthesis; GPC, GC, FTIR
China and India: China has the photoinitiator scale. Tronly runs six China bases, Jiuri makes photoinitiators and monomers at three, and IGM designed its Anqing site for over 10,000 t a year. India's Vinati says it makes about 65% of the world's ATBS. US imports under HS 2916, which holds the acrylic acids, were $864m in 2025; China's share fell from 32% in 2016 to 18%, and India's rose from 4% to 11%.
Sources: Polysciences, Our Story, 2026; Scientific Polymer Products homepage; Esstech homepage, 2026; PCI Magazine on the Bomar rebrand, Feb 3, 2022; Park Aerospace 10-K for the fiscal year ended Mar 1, 2026; Hexcel 10-K FY2019 and FY2020; 2021 Annual Report; Q4 2025 results, Jan 28, 2026; Adhesives & Sealants Industry on American Securities and Meridian Adhesives, Sep 13, 2022; Chase Corporation on the completion of its acquisition by KKR, Nov 14, 2023; Syensqo Q3 2025 results, Nov 6, 2025; FY2025 results, Feb 26, 2026; H.B. Fuller 2024 Annual Report; Westlake on the Hexion epoxy closing, Jan 31, 2022; Lone Star Funds on the sale of AOC to Nippon Paint, Mar 3, 2025; Textile World on Avient and DSM Protective Materials, Sep 2022; Tronly, Jiuri, IGM Resins and Vinati Organics company pages, 2026; UN Comtrade, US imports, HS 2916, 2016 and 2025.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com58
AGA·DWG / SHEET 59 · SEGMENT 5 · THE DEALS · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
POLYMERS AND CASE · THE DEALS, 2022 TO 2026
Eight deals, five with disclosed prices. The only multiple a buyer stated was under 6x, for H.B. Fuller's small add-ons.
DATE
WHO
WHAT
TERMS
PAID FOR
Jan 2022
Westlake
Hexion's global epoxy business
~$1.2bn cash
Coatings and composites; light-weighting
Feb 2022
Arkema (Bostik)
Ashland Performance Adhesives
~$1.65bn cash
Ashland: a "focused additive and specialty ingredients company"
Sep 2022
Avient
DSM Protective Materials (Dyneema; six plants, ~1,000 staff)
$1.485bn agreed (Avient)
"The highest level of performance" materials
Sep 2022
American Securities (with Arsenal)
Meridian Adhesives (Houston; 25 sites)
Undisclosed
"Build a leading global adhesives company"
Nov 2023
KKR
Chase Corporation (Westwood, MA)
$127.50 a share
Materials science; employee ownership; add-ons
FY2024
H.B. Fuller
ND Industries; HS Butyl
Not in the annual report; 2023 group at under 6x post-synergy
The "$15 billion global waterproofing tape market"
Mar 2025
Nippon Paint
AOC (polyester and vinyl ester resins), from Lone Star
$2,194m at completion (Nippon Paint)
Resins platform
Sep 2025
Undisclosed buyer
Hexcel Neumarkt, Austria industrial business
Not disclosed
Hexcel: exit of industrial
Fiscal 2024 to 2027
Park Aerospace
Newton, KS expansion doubled; new plant from fiscal 2027
Cost not disclosed
Capacity for aerospace and defense
The pattern: strategics paid disclosed prices for scale in epoxy and adhesives, and the one stated multiple is a roll-up's single digit for formulators. I found no sale of a US monomer or photoinitiator house. Figures cited elsewhere for ND Industries weren't confirmed on the buyer's own pages and aren't printed.
Sources: Nippon Paint Holdings on completing the AOC acquisition, Mar 4, 2025; Westlake on the Hexion epoxy closing, Jan 31, 2022; Ashland on the sale of Performance Adhesives to Arkema, Feb 28, 2022; Avient on the DSM Protective Materials agreement, Apr 20, 2022; Textile World on the closing, Sep 2022; Adhesives & Sealants Industry on American Securities and Meridian Adhesives, Sep 13, 2022; Chase Corporation on the completion of its acquisition by KKR, Nov 14, 2023; H.B. Fuller 2024 Annual Report; Lone Star Funds on the sale of AOC to Nippon Paint, Mar 3, 2025; Hexcel 10-K FY2019 and FY2020; 2021 Annual Report; Q4 2025 results, Jan 28, 2026; Park Aerospace 10-K for the fiscal year ended Mar 1, 2026.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com59
AGA·DWG / SHEET 60 · SEGMENT 5 · THE CALL · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
POLYMERS AND CASE · MY CALL, AND WHAT WOULD CHANGE IT
My call: watch for now. Once CMMC thins the field, the certified monomer makers are a platform nobody has built yet.
WHAT COULD BREAK IT
WHAT I'D WATCH
HOW I'D KNOW I'M WRONG
CMMC becomes a paperwork cost, not a gate
Prime and tier supplier reports, late 2026
No attrition at the material level
Build rates stay flat
A350 and 737 rates; Hexcel's 2026 guide
Hexcel at the low end of $2.0bn to $2.1bn
Chinese photoinitiators take the specialty end too
Import prices; the private houses' volumes
US houses losing non-defense specialty lines on price
A strategic pays up for a monomer house
Any disclosed sale of one of the four private monomer and photoinitiator houses
A double-digit multiple stated by the buyer
SPONSOR
Build the platform that doesn't exist
Four private monomer and photoinitiator houses, no sale on the public record in a decade, and a CMMC cost each has to plan for. For an owner who wants a partner, that's a platform waiting to be built.
OWNER
Get certified, then sell the spec
Level 2 assessed, ISO 13485 current, and the list of programs you're written into. The reactor list comes last.
BANKER
One comp, and it's the low end
Fuller's under 6x is for formulators a roll-up can fold in. A house with a spec position should show the program list and say why it isn't that.
WHAT WOULD CHANGE MY MIND
A first disclosed sale of a US monomer or photoinitiator house, at a stated multiple. That turns a watch into a comp and a buy, or into a pass.
Sources: CMMC Program final rule, 32 CFR 170, Oct 15, 2024; DFARS CMMC rule, Sep 10, 2025; Hexcel 10-K FY2019 and FY2020; 2021 Annual Report; Q4 2025 results, Jan 28, 2026.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com60
AGA·DWG / SHEET 61 · PART 2 · SKILL 6 OF 9
August GraceADVISORY
PART 2 OF 4 · THE NINE SKILLS · SKILL 6 OF 9
Hazardous chemistry
Reactions that can release toxic gas or explode. The US stopped making TNT and is now paying to rebuild.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com61
AGA·DWG / SHEET 62 · SEGMENT 6 OF 9 · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
SEGMENT 06 · HAZARDOUS CHEMISTRY
Reactions that can release toxic gas or explode, under permits that are hard to widen. The US stopped making TNT and is now paying to rebuild.
Why it matters: the US made no TNT until a $435m award in November 2024. Holston fills 5 million pounds of explosives a year against a 13 million pound plan. The phosgene site in Lockport filed a layoff notice in March 2026 and was bought in June by a firm that said it would keep it running. An existing permit carries the value, and the liability too. This is my first pick.
WHAT IT MAKES
Intermediates and energetics
Nitroaromatics, chloroformates, cyanides, diazonium-derived intermediates at the middle step; TNT, nitrocellulose, perchlorate, HMX at the materials end.
WHY IT'S SCARCE
Four things nobody buys in a year
An RMP update, a HON air permit, a process-safety program, and operators who've run the chemistry. Radford's nitroglycerin rebuild drew one bid.
WHO'S PAYING
Strategics and the Army
Orica $640m EV for Cyanco; NewMarket ~$700m for AMPAC; $961m of Army 155mm awards; $435m for TNT; Dottikon CHF 1bn into one site at 34.6% EBITDA.
Where I land: a US hazardous chemistry site with a live permit is where I'd put money first (sheet 18). The permit can't be rebuilt, the Army is paying to rebuild the base, and the public prices here are the best in this guide.
Sources: Army.mil on the TNT contract to REPKON USA-Defense, Nov 8, 2024; Army 155mm contracts, Sep 10, 2024; Defense News on the Army's explosives hunt, Feb 6, 2024; PE Professional on Comvest and VanDeMark, Apr 24, 2019; Pulse 2.0 on Valiant Energy Management's purchase, Jun 23, 2026; C&EN, Mar 13, 2026; Cerberus on Cyanco, Mar 19, 2018; Australian Manufacturing on Orica's purchase, Feb 21, 2024; NewMarket on the AMPAC closing, Jan 16, 2024; Dottikon ES results as reported by Moneycab, May 2017 to May 2026, and Finanz und Wirtschaft; Dottikon revenues page; DoD contract announcement on Radford's nitroglycerin facility, Oct 2023; The Defense Post on the Parsons design award, Jul 17, 2024.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com62
AGA·DWG / SHEET 63 · SEGMENT 6 · WHERE IT SITS · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
HAZARDOUS CHEMISTRY · WHERE IT SITS ON THE GRID
In the US this work mostly makes reagents and intermediates. Defense is the biggest buyer here. In Europe it's pharma.
STEP
WHAT
WHO, IN THE US
Building blocks and reagents
Phosgene, HCN and sodium cyanide, nitric acid use, ammonium perchlorate
VanDeMark (Lockport, NY), Cyanco (Nevada and Texas), AMPAC (Cedar City, UT)
Radford and Holston (BAE-run), REPKON's Graham, KY TNT plant (to be built), Chemring's Chicago energetic devices
INDUSTRIAL TECH AND DEFENSE
First
AMPAC serves space launch and defense programs. VanDeMark lists defense first. Chemring's energetics orders rose 51% to £524m.
PHARMA
Second here, first in Europe
Dottikon earns about 90% of sales from APIs, 15% billed to the US. VanDeMark and the Carolina toll site both list pharma.
AGRO
Present at every US house
VanDeMark, the Carolina toll site and CABB all list agro actives and intermediates. Nitration is the agro route's most common hazardous step.
Sources: PE Professional on Comvest and VanDeMark, Apr 24, 2019; Pulse 2.0 on Valiant Energy Management's purchase, Jun 23, 2026; C&EN, Mar 13, 2026; Cerberus on Cyanco, Mar 19, 2018; Australian Manufacturing on Orica's purchase, Feb 21, 2024; NewMarket on the AMPAC closing, Jan 16, 2024; SOCMA exhibitor profiles, Feb 2025; Business Wire on Pritzker and Vertellus, Jan 5, 2021; Chemical Week and IBJ on the Indianapolis pyridines closure, Aug 2023; Chemring Group full-year results RNS, Dec 9, 2025; Dottikon ES results as reported by Moneycab, May 2017 to May 2026, and Finanz und Wirtschaft; Dottikon revenues page; Specialty Chemicals Magazine on Permira and CABB, Sep 10, 2021.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com63
AGA·DWG / SHEET 64 · SEGMENT 6 · SIZE · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
HAZARDOUS CHEMISTRY · HOW BIG IT IS
There's no US size. The best public proxy nearly tripled its sales in nine years at a 35% EBITDA margin, and Army ammunition spending is the pull.
THE BENCHMARK
Dottikon, one site, CHF 1bn
Net sales CHF 152m (FY2016/17) to CHF 428m (FY2025/26); EBITDA 34.6%; 900 staff; capex 20% to 49% of sales during the build; no dividend.
THE DEMAND
Army ammunition
Army ammunition: $10.2bn FY2024 (with supplementals), $3.0bn FY2025, $3.7bn FY2026 request, $5.5bn FY2027 per trade press.
THE OTHER BENCHMARK
Chemring
Energetics revenue £323m (+17%), group order book £1.35bn (+32%), 95% cover for 2026; a £180m Norwegian expansion with £90m of grants.
The arithmetic: each 155mm shell holds 22 pounds of explosive, so the Army's goal needs 26.4 million pounds of fill a year against about 5 million pounds of IMX-104 today and zero domestic TNT until Graham, Kentucky runs. Capacity is the constraint.
Sources: Dottikon ES results as reported by Moneycab, May 2017 to May 2026, and Finanz und Wirtschaft; Dottikon revenues page; DoD Comptroller FY2026 P-1 procurement exhibit; Defence-blog on the FY2027 request, Apr 22, 2026; Breaking Defense on 155mm output and Mesquite, Jul 2026; Defense News on the Army's explosives hunt, Feb 6, 2024; Chemring Group full-year results RNS, Dec 9, 2025.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com64
AGA·DWG / SHEET 65 · SEGMENT 6 · WHY IT EARNS MORE · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
HAZARDOUS CHEMISTRY · WHY IT EARNS MORE
Permits take years and customer approvals take decades. Even when a supplier fails, the customer can't easily switch.
THE PERMIT
Never greenfield
VanDeMark has run phosgene at Lockport since 1951. Its June 2026 buyer said the deal "preserves domestic production capacity" for defense, pharma, and agro.
THE QUALIFICATION
Sixty years, $700m
NewMarket paid about $700m for AMPAC, a 150-person, one-site business "qualified on many NASA and Department of Defense programs" for over 60 years.
THE PROOF
One bid; zero output
Radford's nitroglycerin rebuild drew one bid. The Army's $469m Mesquite shell plant had zero usable output by March 2026. The buyer can't switch.
THE CONTRACT
Twelve years
Chemring signed a 12-year framework with Diehl (€231m to start) and a ten-year HMX deal with Nammo; 95% order cover for 2026. Buyers sign long.
THE MARGIN
34.6% through a build
Dottikon held 34.6% EBITDA in FY2025/26 while new-plant depreciation rose. Orica cited Cyanco's natural-gas cost position for its margin.
THE RULEBOOK
Heavier in 2024, lighter in 2026
The 2024 RMP and HON rules added audits and fenceline monitors. In 2026 EPA proposed an RMP rollback, and 20 HON plants got two more years. A new permit is still slow.
MY READ
What this means for price: the buyer of a hazardous-chemistry site is buying a permit that's still hard to issue, a qualification that took decades, and a customer that has no second source. The comps say strategics will pay for that; the Army's record says why.
Sources: PE Professional on Comvest and VanDeMark, Apr 24, 2019; Pulse 2.0 on Valiant Energy Management's purchase, Jun 23, 2026; C&EN, Mar 13, 2026; NewMarket on the AMPAC closing, Jan 16, 2024; DoD contract announcement on Radford's nitroglycerin facility, Oct 2023; The Defense Post on the Parsons design award, Jul 17, 2024; Breaking Defense on 155mm output and Mesquite, Jul 2026; Chemring Group full-year results RNS, Dec 9, 2025; Dottikon ES results as reported by Moneycab, May 2017 to May 2026, and Finanz und Wirtschaft; Dottikon revenues page; Cerberus on Cyanco, Mar 19, 2018; Australian Manufacturing on Orica's purchase, Feb 21, 2024; EPA RMP Safer Communities final rule, 89 FR, Mar 11, 2024; EPA SOCMI NSPS and HON final rule, May 16, 2024; EPA proposed rule on RMP, 91 FR 8970, Feb 24, 2026; EPA proposed reconsideration of the sterilizer rule, 91 FR 12700, Mar 17, 2026; Proclamation 11041, 91 FR 44719, Jul 16, 2026.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com65
AGA·DWG / SHEET 66 · SEGMENT 6 · HOW THEY GET PAID · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
HAZARDOUS CHEMISTRY · HOW THEY GET PAID
Long contracts in explosives, Army-paid upgrades at government plants, and one Swiss benchmark that puts every franc back into a single site.
DEFENSE ENERGETICS
US GOCO PLANTS
CUSTOM HAZARDOUS (BENCHMARK)
Contract shape
Multi-year frameworks: Chemring's 12-year Diehl deal, ten-year Nammo HMX, a $106m five-year US missile order
Army facility contracts and fiscal-year modernization awards: $47.1m Radford nitroglycerin, $15.4m design, $435m TNT ceiling
Not disclosed; Dottikon reinvests all profit, no dividend since at least FY2016/17
Pricing
Set at award; order cover 95% for 2026, 93% for 2027
Firm-fixed-price awards
Not public
Utilization
Capacity-constrained: Holston at 5 of 13 million lb
Radford's legacy lines being replaced
"High utilization of existing plants" cited for the CHF 700m program
Capex per dollar of sales
Chemring 20.5% of revenue in FY2025, with grants
Public money
Dottikon 49% (FY2023/24), 33%, 20%; earlier 26% to 31%
Who funds it
Grants share it: £90m of Chemring Nobel's £180m
The Army
Retained earnings and cash; free cash flow negative during the build
Margin, where printed
Chemring energetics 19.1% operating
Not applicable
Dottikon 34.6% EBITDA
MY READ
Nothing public exists on pricing, utilization, or working capital at a US independent hazardous-chemistry house. The benchmark pattern is clear: long contracts, public money sharing the capex, and a margin that survives a decade-long build. That's the pattern a US seller should be able to show.
Sources: Chemring Group full-year results RNS, Dec 9, 2025; DoD contract announcement on Radford's nitroglycerin facility, Oct 2023; The Defense Post on the Parsons design award, Jul 17, 2024; Army.mil on the TNT contract to REPKON USA-Defense, Nov 8, 2024; Army 155mm contracts, Sep 10, 2024; Defense News on the Army's explosives hunt, Feb 6, 2024; Dottikon ES results as reported by Moneycab, May 2017 to May 2026, and Finanz und Wirtschaft; Dottikon revenues page.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com66
AGA·DWG / SHEET 67 · SEGMENT 6 · WHO PLAYS · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
HAZARDOUS CHEMISTRY · WHO PLAYS
One phosgene site, one perchlorate site, two cyanide plants, two Army plants run by BAE, and a TNT plant that isn't built yet.
$47.1m nitroglycerin rebuild, one bid; IMX-104 at 5 of 13 million lb
REPKON USA-Defense
Graham, KY (planned)
TNT
Private (Turkish parent)
$435m ceiling; first US TNT in decades
Chemring Energetic Devices
Chicago area
Energetic devices, missile components; continuous-flow line added 2024
Chemring Group
$106m five-year US missile order
The benchmarks: Dottikon ES (Switzerland; one site, 900 staff, 90% API, 34.6% EBITDA), CABB (Germany; monochloroacetic acid and agro custom; sold Jayhawk to India in 2025), Saltigo and Lonza (not opened), Orica and NewMarket as the strategic owners. Also building: Lacamas (Portland, OR), with an $86.2m DoD award for energetic precursors (2024).
India and China: Deepak Nitrite runs India's nitration scale. Aurorium kept three Chinese pyridines plants after closing Indianapolis; the Carolina toll site buys intermediates through its own office in China. Those are the two documented US-to-China substitution paths.
Sources: SOCMA exhibitor profiles, Feb 2025; DoD on $192.5m of DPA awards incl. Lacamas Laboratories, Feb 2024; PE Professional on Comvest and VanDeMark, Apr 24, 2019; Pulse 2.0 on Valiant Energy Management's purchase, Jun 23, 2026; C&EN, Mar 13, 2026; NewMarket on the AMPAC closing, Jan 16, 2024; Cerberus on Cyanco, Mar 19, 2018; Australian Manufacturing on Orica's purchase, Feb 21, 2024; Business Wire on Pritzker and Vertellus, Jan 5, 2021; Chemical Week and IBJ on the Indianapolis pyridines closure, Aug 2023; DoD contract announcement on Radford's nitroglycerin facility, Oct 2023; The Defense Post on the Parsons design award, Jul 17, 2024; Army.mil on the TNT contract to REPKON USA-Defense, Nov 8, 2024; Army 155mm contracts, Sep 10, 2024; Chemring Group full-year results RNS, Dec 9, 2025; Dottikon ES results as reported by Moneycab, May 2017 to May 2026, and Finanz und Wirtschaft; Dottikon revenues page; Specialty Chemicals Magazine on Permira and CABB, Sep 10, 2021; Anupam Rasayan investor presentation (NSE), Dec 9, 2025.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com67
AGA·DWG / SHEET 68 · SEGMENT 6 · WHAT A RIVAL CAN'T BUILD · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
HAZARDOUS CHEMISTRY · WHAT A RIVAL CAN AND CAN'T BUILD
Each US position is one or two sites, and nobody new has announced a plant. They compete on reliability and approvals more than price.
CAN BE BUILT IN A YEAR
A reactor train and a tolling contract
General-purpose hazardous reactions at a site that already holds the permit; a sourcing office in China.
CAN'T
A phosgene or HCN permit at a new site
Or a nitrate-ester line: Radford's replacement runs 2023 to 2026 for one facility. Or a TNT plant: 48 months from award.
CAN'T
The qualification and the people
Sixty years on NASA and DoD programs; a trained hazardous-operations workforce. Dottikon planned 200 hires over seven years; Army plants draw one bidder.
CLOSURES AND EXITS
DATE
WHAT HAPPENED
US TNT production
to Nov 2024
Zero. "The current supply chain is entirely reliant on overseas sources" until the Graham, KY award
M6 propellant
2024
"No longer made in the US"; $93m sought to restart at Radford
Aurorium Indianapolis pyridines
Oct 2023
40,000 t/yr, 159 jobs; the only plant in the Western Hemisphere; volume stayed in China
CFATS
Jul 28, 2023
Security-standard authority lapsed; not reauthorized as of the sources opened
VanDeMark Lockport
Mar to Jun 2026
WARN notice for 69 jobs, then a buyer committing to keep the plant running
Cyanco, AMPAC, Vertellus
2018 to 2024
Each sold, twice in Cyanco's case; nobody shut a phosgene, cyanide or energetics site; the pyridines plant did close
Sources: Army.mil on the TNT contract to REPKON USA-Defense, Nov 8, 2024; Army 155mm contracts, Sep 10, 2024; Defense News on the Army's explosives hunt, Feb 6, 2024; Business Wire on Pritzker and Vertellus, Jan 5, 2021; Chemical Week and IBJ on the Indianapolis pyridines closure, Aug 2023; TRC Companies on the CFATS lapse, Sep 6, 2023; PE Professional on Comvest and VanDeMark, Apr 24, 2019; Pulse 2.0 on Valiant Energy Management's purchase, Jun 23, 2026; C&EN, Mar 13, 2026; Cerberus on Cyanco, Mar 19, 2018; Australian Manufacturing on Orica's purchase, Feb 21, 2024; NewMarket on the AMPAC closing, Jan 16, 2024; DoD contract announcement on Radford's nitroglycerin facility, Oct 2023; The Defense Post on the Parsons design award, Jul 17, 2024; Dottikon ES results as reported by Moneycab, May 2017 to May 2026, and Finanz und Wirtschaft; Dottikon revenues page.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com68
AGA·DWG / SHEET 69 · SEGMENT 6 · THE DEALS · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
HAZARDOUS CHEMISTRY · THE DEALS, 2016 TO 2026
The biggest prices in the guide: $640m for a cyanide maker, $700m for a perchlorate maker, and over $2bn of Army awards. Only Orica stated a multiple.
DATE
WHO
WHAT
TERMS
PAID FOR
Mar 2018
Cerberus
Cyanco, from Oaktree
Undisclosed
"Largest global sodium cyanide producer"
Apr 2019
Comvest Partners
VanDeMark (Lockport, NY)
Undisclosed (2007 sale was $40m)
Phosgene-derivatives leadership
Jan 2021
Pritzker Private Capital
Vertellus, now Aurorium (Indianapolis)
Undisclosed
700+ products, 10 plants, 900+ staff
Oct 2023
US Army
BAE: Radford nitroglycerin facility replacement
$47.1m firm-fixed-price; one bid
Legacy line replacement
Fall 2023
US Army
Nine companies: bulk TNT and IMX-104, 14.2 million lb
$1.5bn
Fill for the 155mm ramp
Jan 2024
NewMarket
AMPAC (Cedar City, UT)
About $700m; cash and revolver
Rocket-motor additives; NASA and DoD qualification
Feb 2024
Orica
Cyanco, from Cerberus
$640m EV; 7.5x 2023 EBITDA pre-synergy (Orica)
NaCN capacity to ~240,000 t/yr; US gas cost position
Sep 2024
US Army
GD-OTS, Metallus, American Ordnance, Nammo: 155mm capacity
Over $961m
Toward 100,000 rounds a month
Nov 2024
US Army
REPKON USA-Defense: TNT plant, Graham, KY
$435m ceiling
"Reshoring TNT production"
2024 to 2026
US Army
GD-OTS Mesquite 155mm metal parts plant
$469m; zero output by Mar 2026
20,000 rounds a month, revised
FY2025
Chemring
Chemring Nobel expansion, Norway
£180m gross, £90m grants
Propellant and energetics; ~£100m revenue a year from 2028
FY2020 to FY2026
Dottikon ES
Single-site expansion, Switzerland
About CHF 1bn over ten years
Double capacity; about 200 jobs
Jun 2026
Valiant Energy Management
VanDeMark, after a WARN notice
Undisclosed
"Preserves domestic production capacity"
The pattern: strategics with an end-market reason (Orica for mining, NewMarket for rockets) pay disclosed nine-figure prices; sponsors pay undisclosed; the Army funds the GOCO base directly. Orica is the one party that stated a multiple.
Sources: Cerberus on Cyanco, Mar 19, 2018; Australian Manufacturing on Orica's purchase, Feb 21, 2024; Orica on the Cyanco agreement, Feb 21, 2024; PE Professional on Comvest and VanDeMark, Apr 24, 2019; Pulse 2.0 on Valiant Energy Management's purchase, Jun 23, 2026; C&EN, Mar 13, 2026; Business Wire on Pritzker and Vertellus, Jan 5, 2021; Chemical Week and IBJ on the Indianapolis pyridines closure, Aug 2023; DoD contract announcement on Radford's nitroglycerin facility, Oct 2023; The Defense Post on the Parsons design award, Jul 17, 2024; Defense News on the Army's explosives hunt, Feb 6, 2024; NewMarket on the AMPAC closing, Jan 16, 2024; Army.mil on the TNT contract to REPKON USA-Defense, Nov 8, 2024; Army 155mm contracts, Sep 10, 2024; Breaking Defense on 155mm output and Mesquite, Jul 2026; Chemring Group full-year results RNS, Dec 9, 2025; Dottikon ES results as reported by Moneycab, May 2017 to May 2026, and Finanz und Wirtschaft; Dottikon revenues page.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com69
AGA·DWG / SHEET 70 · SEGMENT 6 · WHAT TO WATCH · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
HAZARDOUS CHEMISTRY · WHAT TO WATCH
The Army is paying to rebuild the explosives base, and it's behind schedule. The 2027 budget will show whether this lasts.
WHAT MOVED
TNT, nitrate esters, perchlorate, HMX
A $435m TNT plant, $600m sought to triple Holston, $93m to restart M6, $961m of 155mm awards. A GOCO niche became a funded build.
WHAT HASN'T
The output
155mm at 36,000 a month in March 2026 against a 100,000 goal due October 2025; Mesquite at zero. Capacity can't be bought on a schedule.
THE FALSIFIER
FY2027 and Graham, KY
FY2027 ammunition enacted below FY2026, no groundbreaking at Graham by end-2026, or 155mm under 50,000 a month: a one-cycle supplemental.
Second watch: the rollback is here. EPA proposed rescinding most 2024 RMP additions on Feb 24, 2026, and 20 HON plants got two more years on Jul 9. That delays the push from public emissions data. It doesn't make a new permit easier to get.
Sources: DoD Comptroller FY2026 P-1 procurement exhibit; Defence-blog on the FY2027 request, Apr 22, 2026; Army.mil on the TNT contract to REPKON USA-Defense, Nov 8, 2024; Army 155mm contracts, Sep 10, 2024; Defense News on the Army's explosives hunt, Feb 6, 2024; Breaking Defense on 155mm output and Mesquite, Jul 2026; EPA RMP Safer Communities final rule, 89 FR, Mar 11, 2024; EPA SOCMI NSPS and HON final rule, May 16, 2024; EPA proposed rule on RMP, 91 FR 8970, Feb 24, 2026; EPA proposed reconsideration of the sterilizer rule, 91 FR 12700, Mar 17, 2026; Proclamation 11041, 91 FR 44719, Jul 16, 2026.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com70
AGA·DWG / SHEET 71 · SEGMENT 6 · THE CALL · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
HAZARDOUS CHEMISTRY · MY CALL, AND WHAT WOULD CHANGE IT
My call: a US site with a live nitration, phosgene, cyanide or explosives permit is the first thing I'd buy and hold.
WHAT COULD BREAK IT
WHAT I'D WATCH
HOW I'D KNOW I'M WRONG
The Army ramp is a one-cycle supplemental
FY2027 enacted ammunition line; Graham, KY groundbreaking
Below FY2026, or no shovel by end-2026
The liability outweighs the permit
Environmental history in any sale; Lockport's next twelve months
A permitted site sold with the seller keeping the liabilities, at a low price
EPA's rollback goes final and goes further
Final rule on 91 FR 8970; any HON reconsideration
New hazardous permits get easier to issue
Chinese intermediates keep the pharma and agro steps
Pyridines, nitroaromatics import data; US toll sites' sourcing mix
US houses buying rather than making the hazardous step
SPONSOR
Hunt the permit, price the liability
Screen RMP and HON registrants running nitration, phosgene, or cyanide with a Western customer. Lockport shows the path: a WARN notice, then a buyer who wanted the capacity.
OWNER
Your permit and your record are the pitch
Lead with the RMP filing, the fenceline data, the qualifications, and the customers who have no second source. Then the reactors.
BANKER
The comps are strategics with an end-market reason
Orica, NewMarket, and the Army all paid for a position they couldn't rebuild. Position a US house on which program it feeds and who would fail without it.
WHAT WOULD CHANGE MY MIND
A disclosed sale of a permitted US hazardous-chemistry site at a toll-plant price, or an FY2027 ammunition line below FY2026. Either one and this drops from first to second behind fluorine.
Sources: DoD Comptroller FY2026 P-1 procurement exhibit; Defence-blog on the FY2027 request, Apr 22, 2026; Army.mil on the TNT contract to REPKON USA-Defense, Nov 8, 2024; Army 155mm contracts, Sep 10, 2024; PE Professional on Comvest and VanDeMark, Apr 24, 2019; Pulse 2.0 on Valiant Energy Management's purchase, Jun 23, 2026; C&EN, Mar 13, 2026; EPA RMP Safer Communities final rule, 89 FR, Mar 11, 2024; EPA proposed rule on RMP, 91 FR 8970, Feb 24, 2026.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com71
AGA·DWG / SHEET 72 · PART 2 · SKILL 7 OF 9
August GraceADVISORY
PART 2 OF 4 · THE NINE SKILLS · SKILL 7 OF 9
High purity
Making things pure and proving it, for chip plants on one side and research catalogs on the other.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com72
AGA·DWG / SHEET 73 · SEGMENT 7 OF 9 · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
SEGMENT 07 · HIGH PURITY
This is about making things pure and proving it. Two different businesses share the skill but not the customer.
Why it matters: the chip-plant half (acids, developers, TMAH) is being rebuilt next to new US fabs, mostly by foreign groups. Fujifilm paid $700m for seven plants in 2023, and CHIPS now gives grants to acid makers. The research-catalog half merged into three giants by 2017 and is flat to shrinking. Avantor's lab business fell 7% in two years. The opportunity sits in between: the certified maker behind a catalog.
WHAT IT MAKES
Acids, standards, developers
HPPCs and TMAH for fabs; certified reference materials for every QC lab; catalog inorganics that open the door to custom orders.
WHY IT'S SCARCE
Proof, adjacency, history
An ISO 17034 value history, a plant qualified into a fab's recipe, a 90-year family brand. None of the three can be bought in a year.
WHO'S PAYING
Strategics and CHIPS
Fujifilm $700m; Merck $17bn and Thermo £256m in the 2015 wave; Avista for eMolecules; Sumika's $52.1m CHIPS grant for UHP IPA.
Where I land: a watch, then buy the maker behind the catalog (sheet 18). A single-site certified producer with custom work earns a maker's margin. The distributors around it earn 11.6%.
Sources: Entegris on the sale of Electronic Chemicals to Fujifilm, May 10 and Oct 2, 2023; Fujifilm on completing the Entegris Electronic Chemicals purchase, Oct 2, 2023; SIA CHIPS investment tracker, updated Sep 22, 2026; Avantor FY2024 (Feb 7, 2025) and FY2025 (Feb 2026) results; Merck KGaA completes Sigma-Aldrich, Nov 18, 2015; Thermo Fisher completes Alfa Aesar, Sep 30, 2015; eMolecules on Avista Capital's investment, Mar 25, 2022.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com73
AGA·DWG / SHEET 74 · SEGMENT 7 · SIZE · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
HIGH PURITY · HOW BIG IT IS
There's no US size. The catalog giants are flat to down. The chip-plant side grew and changed hands at $700m for $360m of sales.
THE CATALOG SIDE
Consolidated, then flat
Merck/Sigma $17bn, Thermo/Alfa £256m (2015), Avantor/VWR $6.4bn (2017). Avantor's lab line -7.1% 2023 to 2025; a $785m impairment.
THE FAB SIDE
Growing, foreign-owned
Entegris sold ex-KMG (~$360m sales, 7 plants, 593 staff) to Fujifilm for $700m. Fujifilm targets ¥500bn of electronic chemicals by 2030.
THE PULL
The SIA list
$828bn across 160-plus US projects, updated Sep 22, 2026. CHIPS grants to materials: Sumika $52.1m (UHP IPA), Entegris $77m, Hemlock $325m.
Forward, dated: Fujifilm's $350m US program (FY2021 to FY2023) added 30% capacity at Mesa, Arizona; Merck guides Electronics to €3.2bn to €3.4bn in 2026, up 3% to 7% organic. The research catalog has no stated growth from anyone. China's plant shutdowns and then Covid helped US makers for a while, but these numbers have been flat to down since 2023, so I don't count on that tailwind (sheet 9).
Sources: Avantor FY2024 (Feb 7, 2025) and FY2025 (Feb 2026) results; Merck KGaA FY2025 results and Annual Report 2025, Life Science; Entegris on the sale of Electronic Chemicals to Fujifilm, May 10 and Oct 2, 2023; Fujifilm on completing the Entegris Electronic Chemicals purchase, Oct 2, 2023; SIA CHIPS investment tracker, updated Sep 22, 2026; AZ Big Media on Fujifilm's $350m US electronic-materials program, Jul 15, 2022; Merck KGaA completes Sigma-Aldrich, Nov 18, 2015; Thermo Fisher completes Alfa Aesar, Sep 30, 2015; Honeywell on buying Sigma-Aldrich's Seelze research chemicals, Oct 20, 2015; Avantor completes VWR, Nov 21, 2017.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com74
AGA·DWG / SHEET 75 · SEGMENT 7 · WHY IT EARNS MORE · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
HIGH PURITY · WHY IT EARNS MORE
Buyers pay for a certificate a lab can't work around, or a plant next to a chip fab. The catalog mostly brings in custom orders.
THE PROOF
ISO 17034 and a value history
Two of the private US makers hold ISO 17034 plus 17025. A lab can't swap in an unaccredited bottle without re-validating its own method.
THE ADJACENCY
Seven plants, one contract
Fujifilm bought the ex-KMG network with its Total Chemical Management contracts. The price was for the installed base next to the fab.
THE FRONT DOOR
Catalog gram, custom kilo
Most of the makers on sheet 77, SACHEM included, publish a custom lane behind the catalog. The catalog order is the sample.
THE SPEED
Next day, 72,000 SKUs
Enamine's Cincinnati stock ships next day. eMolecules routes 120 million SKUs. The research buyer pays list for a gram tomorrow.
THE SERVICE
Hazard as revenue
SACHEM sells TMAH safety services, Mobius recycling and waste collection with the chemical. The hazard became a recurring line.
WHAT DOESN'T EARN
The distribution layer
Avantor Lab Solutions earned 11.6% adjusted operating margin in 2025; its production segment 24.1%. Breadth without a plant pays like a distributor.
MY READ
What this means for price: a buyer pays for the accreditation history, the fab qualification, or the custom lane behind the catalog. Nobody has paid a premium for shelf breadth alone since 2017, and Avantor's impairment says why.
Sources: company pages of the makers on sheet 77 (opened Oct 9, 2026); Fujifilm on completing the Entegris Electronic Chemicals purchase, Oct 2, 2023; Entegris on the sale of Electronic Chemicals to Fujifilm, May 10 and Oct 2, 2023; SACHEM site: About, Products, Locations (rev. Aug 2025); Enamine on its 72,000-compound US stock, Mar 13, 2017; eMolecules on Avista Capital's investment, Mar 25, 2022; Avantor FY2024 (Feb 7, 2025) and FY2025 (Feb 2026) results.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com75
AGA·DWG / SHEET 76 · SEGMENT 7 · HOW THEY GET PAID · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
HIGH PURITY · HOW THEY GET PAID
Chip plants sign supply-and-service contracts, and catalogs sell at list price online. Public money goes to plants near the new fabs.
FAB SUPPLY (HPPC, TMAH)
CATALOG AND CRM
DISTRIBUTION LAYER
Contract shape
Supply plus Total Chemical Management; term and take-or-pay not public
List price per pack size; e-commerce carts; CRM certificates per lot
Multi-year preferred-supplier and distribution agreements
Pricing
Negotiated per contract, qualified into the recipe
List; a gram tomorrow priced above a kilo in twelve weeks
Resale margin on other makers' products
Capex per dollar of sales
Fujifilm ~$350m over three years on ~$1.2bn of revenue, about 10% a year (my arithmetic)
Low; a packaging line and an accredited lab
Warehouses and stock
Working capital
Plant and logistics; revenue ~$640,000 per employee at the ex-KMG business (my arithmetic)
Stock-heavy: a US repackager lists 45,000 chemicals; Enamine holds 72,000 compounds in US stock
Aggregators hold little; eMolecules routes to 300-plus suppliers
Who co-funds
CHIPS: Sumika $52.1m, Entegris $77m
Nobody
Nobody
Margin, where printed
Not printed for the US network
Merck Life Science 28.8% EBITDA pre; Avantor production segment 24.1%
No private US high-purity maker prints pricing, utilization or inventory days. The public pattern holds: the plant and the certificate earn a manufacturer's margin, the shelf earns a distributor's, and the fab side gets public co-funding the catalog side never will.
Sources: Fujifilm on completing the Entegris Electronic Chemicals purchase, Oct 2, 2023; AZ Big Media on Fujifilm's $350m US electronic-materials program, Jul 15, 2022; Entegris on the sale of Electronic Chemicals to Fujifilm, May 10 and Oct 2, 2023; company pages of the makers on sheet 77 (opened Oct 9, 2026); Enamine on its 72,000-compound US stock, Mar 13, 2017; eMolecules on Avista Capital's investment, Mar 25, 2022; SIA CHIPS investment tracker, updated Sep 22, 2026; Merck KGaA FY2025 results and Annual Report 2025, Life Science; Avantor FY2024 (Feb 7, 2025) and FY2025 (Feb 2026) results.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com76
AGA·DWG / SHEET 77 · SEGMENT 7 · WHO PLAYS · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
HIGH PURITY · WHO PLAYS
Small private makers sit behind the catalogs. Above them are the big catalog houses, and a strategic owns the fab supply.
WHO
WHERE
WHAT IT RUNS
OWNER
WORTH KNOWING
SACHEM
Austin HQ; Cleburne, TX plant
TMAH and quaternary ammonium family, zeolite templates, developers, toll and custom
Private
Sold Asia ops to Nagase Mar 2025; new CEO Jul 21, 2026; no revenue printed
GFS Chemicals
Powell and Columbus, OH
Inorganic and analytical chemicals, Karl Fischer reagents, acids
Family-owned
Since 1928; ISO 9001, 17025, 17034
Inorganic Ventures
Christiansburg, VA
Certified reference materials for ICP, ICP-MS, IC, AA; custom mixtures
Not stated
Founded 1985; ISO 17034 and 17025; A2LA 883.01 and 883.02
Noah Chemicals
San Antonio, TX
Standard and custom inorganics with full lot traceability
Began as a PE-funded start-up; claims 30% of the Fortune 50
Spectrum Chemical
CA and NJ plants
45,000 chemicals; cGMP packaging and repackaging; represents 250 makers
Private; women-owned
Founded 1971; 200-plus staff; FDA-registered plants
Oakwood Chemical
Estill, SC
Catalog research chemicals, fluorine and sulfur focus; custom synthesis
Private (Oakwood Products)
A one-site maker behind its own catalog; also on sheet 31
eMolecules
San Diego
Aggregator: 120 million SKUs, 300-plus suppliers, ~1,000 customers
Avista Capital, Mar 2022
50-plus staff; holds little stock
Fujifilm Electronic Materials
7 plants, US, Europe, Singapore
HPPCs and chemical management (ex-KMG, ex-CMC, ex-Entegris)
Fujifilm, Oct 2023
$700m; ~$360m sales; 593 staff at close
The majors: Merck KGaA (MilliporeSigma, the former Sigma-Aldrich; Life Science €8,980m), Thermo Fisher (Alfa Aesar; Laboratory Products and Biopharma Services $23,984m), Avantor (VWR and J.T. Baker; $6,552m), Honeywell Research Chemicals (Muskegon, MI; Seelze), TCI (Tokyo Chemical Industry; US base in Portland, OR), Sumika (Baytown, TX UHP IPA).
India and China: I found no Indian or Chinese catalog or HPPC maker with US sales; the Electronic Chemicals guide covers Chinese acid capacity. The documented offshore path is American Elements' own refining in China and Mexico under a US brand.
Sources: SACHEM site: About, Products, Locations (rev. Aug 2025); SACHEM on the sale of its Asia operations to Nagase, Mar 18, 2025; SACHEM names John C. Foley CEO, Jul 21, 2026; GFS Chemicals, About us (opened Oct 9, 2026); Inorganic Ventures, About (opened Oct 9, 2026); Noah Chemicals, About (opened Oct 9, 2026); American Elements, Company (opened Oct 9, 2026); Spectrum Chemical, Core values (opened Oct 9, 2026); Oakwood Chemical, About Us, 2026; TCI America, US offices and facilities, 2026; Avantor, J.T.Baker brand page, 2026; MilliporeSigma, 2026; eMolecules on Avista Capital's investment, Mar 25, 2022; Fujifilm on completing the Entegris Electronic Chemicals purchase, Oct 2, 2023; Merck KGaA FY2025 results and Annual Report 2025, Life Science; Thermo Fisher FY2025 results, Jan 29, 2026; Avantor FY2024 (Feb 7, 2025) and FY2025 (Feb 2026) results; Honeywell on buying Sigma-Aldrich's Seelze research chemicals, Oct 20, 2015; SIA CHIPS investment tracker, updated Sep 22, 2026; August Grace, Electronic Chemicals Field Guide, Rev 1.0, Aug 2026.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com77
AGA·DWG / SHEET 78 · SEGMENT 7 · THE DEALS · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
HIGH PURITY · THE DEALS, 2015 TO 2026
About $24bn of catalog deals in 2015 to 2017, then one $700m sale of chip-plant supply. No one stated a multiple.
DATE
WHO
WHAT
TERMS
PAID FOR
Sep 30, 2015
Thermo Fisher
Alfa Aesar, from Johnson Matthey
£256m cash; ~£78m revenue
"Virtually every laboratory application"
Oct 20, 2015
Honeywell
Sigma-Aldrich research chemicals, Seelze (Fluka, Hydranal)
About €105m
A fuller line beside Burdick & Jackson
Nov 18, 2015
Merck KGaA
Sigma-Aldrich
$17bn cash
300,000 products; a "quantum leap" in life science
UHP IPA, filters, polysilicon, silica, wafers, SiC
The pattern: strategics paid disclosed prices for catalogs (2015 to 2017) and for the fab network (2023); a sponsor bought the custom-capable aggregator (eMolecules) and said nothing about price. A filter company owned the acid plants for fifteen months and sold. Not one party stated a multiple.
Sources: Thermo Fisher completes Alfa Aesar, Sep 30, 2015; Honeywell on buying Sigma-Aldrich's Seelze research chemicals, Oct 20, 2015; Merck KGaA completes Sigma-Aldrich, Nov 18, 2015; Avantor completes VWR, Nov 21, 2017; Entegris releases on CMC Materials, Dec 14, 2021 and Jul 6, 2022; eMolecules on Avista Capital's investment, Mar 25, 2022; AZ Big Media on Fujifilm's $350m US electronic-materials program, Jul 15, 2022; Entegris on the sale of Electronic Chemicals to Fujifilm, May 10 and Oct 2, 2023; Fujifilm on completing the Entegris Electronic Chemicals purchase, Oct 2, 2023; SACHEM on the sale of its Asia operations to Nagase, Mar 18, 2025; SIA CHIPS investment tracker, updated Sep 22, 2026.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com78
AGA·DWG / SHEET 79 · SEGMENT 7 · THE CALL · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
HIGH PURITY · MY CALL, AND WHAT WOULD CHANGE IT
My call: watch this one. Buy the certified single-site maker with a custom business, and leave the catalog to the giants.
WHAT COULD BREAK IT
WHAT I'D WATCH
HOW I'D KNOW I'M WRONG
The fab buildout slips and the acid plants sit idle
SIA project list; Fujifilm segment reporting; fab start dates in Arizona, Ohio, Texas
Fujifilm off the ¥500bn path, or the SIA total flat for two updates
Accreditation is cheaper to earn than I think
New ISO 17034 producers in the A2LA directory each year
A new entrant winning a major lab account inside three years
The majors buy the independents and the window closes
Merck, Thermo, Avantor, Fujifilm deal releases
A disclosed purchase of a US CRM or TMAH maker by a major
The catalog is worth more than the plant behind it
Any disclosed sale price for a catalog-plus-custom house
A disclosed multiple paid for shelf breadth
SPONSOR
Buy the certificate and the custom lane
Screen ISO 17034 and 17025 holders with one US plant and a published custom offer. Price the accreditation history and the qualifications.
OWNER
Lead with the scope, then the custom book
Your A2LA scope, your certified-value history, and the custom orders the catalog brought in are the pitch. The catalog is your evidence.
BANKER
Two sets of comps, keep them apart
Catalog comps are the 2015 to 2017 strategics; the fab-supply comp is Fujifilm 2023. The accredited independent in between has no public comp.
WHAT WOULD CHANGE MY MIND
A disclosed strategic purchase of one of the accredited private makers, or of SACHEM, at a stated price. That would move high purity from watch to buy, and tell me what the certificate history is worth.
Sources: SIA CHIPS investment tracker, updated Sep 22, 2026; Fujifilm on completing the Entegris Electronic Chemicals purchase, Oct 2, 2023; company pages of the makers on sheet 77 (opened Oct 9, 2026); SACHEM site: About, Products, Locations (rev. Aug 2025); Avantor FY2024 (Feb 7, 2025) and FY2025 (Feb 2026) results.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com79
AGA·DWG / SHEET 80 · PART 2 · SKILL 8 OF 9
August GraceADVISORY
PART 2 OF 4 · THE NINE SKILLS · SKILL 8 OF 9
Licensed handling
A federal license at one address. The DEA decides who else gets in, and quotas reset every year.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com80
AGA·DWG / SHEET 81 · SEGMENT 8 OF 9 · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
SEGMENT 08 · LICENSED HANDLING
A federal license at one address, and the agency decides who else gets in. Quotas reset every year, and the buyer is pharma.
Why it matters: every new Schedule II registration is published, and every incumbent can object within 60 days. Even then a site can't run without that year's quota. The opioid quota is about half its 2017 size and flat. Stimulants are growing, with lisdexamfetamine up 57% in one year. In May 2026 Siegfried bought the largest US network at "below 10x," and radiopharma buyers paid $4.1bn and $2.0bn for platforms with their own isotope supply.
WHAT IT MAKES
Controlled API, potent payloads, isotopes
Schedule II API and intermediates; HPAPI and ADC linker-payloads at an OEL below 0.01 µg/m³; Mo-99, Lu-177 and Ac-225 doses.
WHY IT'S SCARCE
Three gates, none for sale
A contested DEA registration, an annual quota, an NRC license judged on equipment and people. A new entrant's first commercial batch is a year away.
WHO'S PAYING
Pharma, three ways
Siegfried for Noramco; BMS $4.1bn and AstraZeneca $2.0bn for RLT platforms; Lantheus $276m for a radiopharma CDMO; Hercules $185m into NorthStar.
Where I land: my third pick (sheet 18). A US site with commercial Schedule II quota or a licensed isotope line is protected by the regulator. The only multiple ever stated for a US custom chemistry site sale was paid for exactly that.
Sources: 21 CFR 1301.33, bulk manufacturer applications (Cornell LII); DEA Established Aggregate Production Quotas for 2026, 91 FR 287, Jan 5, 2026; DEA release Jan 9, 2026; DEA Established APQ for 2017, 81 FR 69079, Oct 5, 2016; DEA release Oct 4, 2016; Siegfried media releases, Jan 27 and Apr 24, 2026; SK Capital via Business Wire, May 1, 2026; RayzeBio 8-K Ex. 99.1, BMS merger, Dec 26, 2023; AstraZeneca on acquiring Fusion Pharmaceuticals, Mar 19, 2024; Lantheus Holdings 10-K for FY2025, Feb 26, 2026; NorthStar Medical Radioisotopes news page, incl. Sep 29, 2026 financing (headlines).
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com81
AGA·DWG / SHEET 82 · SEGMENT 8 · SIZE · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
LICENSED HANDLING · HOW BIG IT IS
There's no US size. The opioid quota halved and went flat, stimulants grew, and Pluvicto grew 42% in 2025.
THE QUOTA POOL
Half, then flat
DEA cut 2017 opiate quotas "25 percent or more." By 2026 it calls opioid APQs "sufficient to meet all legitimate needs." The order drew 5,044 comments.
THE RLT POOL
Pluvicto $1,994m, +42%
Novartis: Pluvicto $1,994m in 2025 (+42% cc), $1,293m in H1 2026 (+55%); Lutathera $816m (+12%). Both lutetium-177. The isotope demand behind the deals.
THE ENTRY STREAM
113 applications in 21 months
Federal Register bulk-manufacturer notices, Jan 2025 to Sep 2026: Noramco, SpecGx, Siegfried, Cambrex, Curia, Veranova, Sterling, Pharmaron, Patheon.
Forward, dated: Siegfried guides about $100m of 2026 sales from the Noramco sites (about $155m annualized) at or above group margin; NorthStar's $194m Beloit plant and $185m financing (Sep 29, 2026) add isotope capacity; Cambrex says Charles City's 140,000 L expansion runs from H2 2028. No independent forecast exists.
Sources: DEA Established APQ for 2017, 81 FR 69079, Oct 5, 2016; DEA release Oct 4, 2016; DEA Established APQ for 2022, 86 FR 68513, Dec 2, 2021; DEA Established APQ for 2025, 89 FR 102649, Dec 17, 2024; DEA Established Aggregate Production Quotas for 2026, 91 FR 287, Jan 5, 2026; DEA release Jan 9, 2026; Novartis FY2025 release and product sales, Feb 4, 2026; Q2 2026 release, Jul 2026; Federal Register API: DEA bulk-manufacturer application notices, Jan 1, 2025 to Sep 28, 2026 (113 notices); Siegfried media releases, Jan 27 and Apr 24, 2026; SK Capital via Business Wire, May 1, 2026; NorthStar Medical Radioisotopes news page, incl. Sep 29, 2026 financing (headlines); Cambrex on US and European expansions, Mar 23, 2026; DCAT on Charles City, Aug 13, 2026.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com82
AGA·DWG / SHEET 83 · SEGMENT 8 · WHY IT EARNS MORE · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
LICENSED HANDLING · WHY IT EARNS MORE
Incumbents can object to every new license, and quotas reset each year. The license is tied to one street address, so it can't move.
THE GATE
60 days to object
Every Schedule I or II application is published and mailed to each existing maker of that class. A new oxycodone registration runs past five incumbents.
THE QUOTA
Idle without it
DEA resets the national ceiling each year. A site holding procurement and manufacturing quota can take an order this year; a new registrant can't.
THE ROUTE
Intermediate codes
SpecGx, Cambrex Charles City, Curia New York and Siegfried Grafton hold ANPP and phenylacetone. One license runs the route from precursor to API.
THE SUITE
0.01 µg/m³, $30m
Veranova's two Devens suites handle an OEL below 0.01 µg/m³. Piramal Riverview advertises 10 ng/m³. The customer pays for the number.
THE HALF-LIFE
Location and schedule
Lantheus bought Mo-99 from reactors in Belgium, South Africa and Australia. A domestic licensed line is the alternative to a decaying import.
THE ADDRESS
Re-registration is site-specific
The notice names the street: 500 Swedes Landing Road, 25 Patton Road. Moving a controlled API means a new registration, a new quota and an FDA supplement.
MY READ
What this means for price: the buyer of a licensed site is buying the right to be the incumbent who objects, this year's quota, and a license the agency tied to the building. BMS and AstraZeneca named the manufacturing and isotope supply in their rationale.
Sources: 21 CFR 1301.33, bulk manufacturer applications (Cornell LII); DEA Established Aggregate Production Quotas for 2026, 91 FR 287, Jan 5, 2026; DEA release Jan 9, 2026; DEA notice, SpecGx, Mar 26, 2026; DEA notices, Cambrex Charles City Aug 26, 2026 and Cambrex High Point Sep 14, 2026; DEA notices, Curia New York and Curia Missouri, Aug 25, 2026; DEA notices, Siegfried USA Jan 16, 2026 and Siegfried Grafton Mar 19, 2026; Veranova on its Devens ADC and HPAPI expansion, Jun 27, 2024; Piramal Pharma Solutions, Riverview MI facility page; Lantheus Holdings 10-K for FY2025, Feb 26, 2026; DEA notice, Noramco, Nov 26, 2025; RayzeBio 8-K Ex. 99.1, BMS merger, Dec 26, 2023; AstraZeneca on acquiring Fusion Pharmaceuticals, Mar 19, 2024.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com83
AGA·DWG / SHEET 84 · SEGMENT 8 · HOW THEY GET PAID · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
LICENSED HANDLING · HOW THEY GET PAID
Supply deals sized to the customer's quota and milestone deals in radiopharma. Only one buyer has said what it paid.
CONTROLLED-SUBSTANCE API
HPAPI AND ADC PAYLOADS
RADIOPHARMA
Contract shape
Supply "to its customers" (Noramco), "for internal use as intermediates and for sale" (Siegfried USA), "for conversion" (Cambrex Charles City); terms not public
Development-to-commercial under one roof; Veranova: "eliminates the need for tech transfers"
CDMO revenue booked as a line (Lantheus on Evergreen); $276.4m upfront plus up to $727.5m in milestones
Pricing
Not disclosed by any site; the customer's quota caps the volume
Not disclosed; priced to the OEL and the suite
End-product pool public (Pluvicto $1,994m); toll price for Lu-177 not found
Capex, examples
Cambrex Charles City $130m-plus for 140,000 L (H2 2028)
Veranova Devens about $30m for two suites and a development lab
NorthStar $194m for 82,000 sq ft; up to $185m growth financing
Working capital
Inventory capped by quota and vault rules
Small batches; high value per gram
Lantheus: inventory tied to batch timing; receivables tied to PYLARIFY
Utilization
Not found for any US site
Not found
Not found
Margin, where printed
Siegfried: acquired sites "at or above" group EBITDA margin; group core target above 23%
Not printed
Not printed for a merchant isotope maker
MY READ
The only multiple any party has stated for a US custom-chemistry site sale is Siegfried's "below 10 times Enterprise Value / EBITDA" for about $155m of annualized US controlled-substance sales. Everything else here is upfront-plus-milestones or undisclosed. That one number is the reference until someone prints another.
Sources: DEA notice, Noramco, Nov 26, 2025; DEA notices, Siegfried USA Jan 16, 2026 and Siegfried Grafton Mar 19, 2026; DEA notices, Cambrex Charles City Aug 26, 2026 and Cambrex High Point Sep 14, 2026; Veranova on its Devens ADC and HPAPI expansion, Jun 27, 2024; Lantheus Holdings 10-K for FY2025, Feb 26, 2026; Novartis FY2025 release and product sales, Feb 4, 2026; Q2 2026 release, Jul 2026; Cambrex on US and European expansions, Mar 23, 2026; DCAT on Charles City, Aug 13, 2026; NorthStar Medical Radioisotopes news page, incl. Sep 29, 2026 financing (headlines); Siegfried media releases, Jan 27 and Apr 24, 2026; SK Capital via Business Wire, May 1, 2026.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com84
AGA·DWG / SHEET 85 · SEGMENT 8 · WHO PLAYS · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
LICENSED HANDLING · WHO PLAYS
About a dozen US addresses can make Schedule II drugs commercially. Siegfried now owns four of them.
WHO
WHERE
WHAT IT RUNS
OWNER
WORTH KNOWING
Noramco
Wilmington, DE
Schedule II API: oxycodone, hydrocodone, morphine and 17 more codes
Siegfried, May 1, 2026
"Below 10x"; ~$155m annualized with Purisys, Extractas
Siegfried USA; Siegfried Grafton
Pennsville, NJ; Grafton, WI
Schedule II API and intermediates; Grafton adds psychedelics
Siegfried
Will "optimize" Wilmington and Pennsville capacity
SpecGx
St. Louis, MO
14 Schedule I codes plus ANPP, phenylacetone, oxycodone, fentanyl
Not confirmed
Every intermediate code at one address
Cambrex Charles City; High Point
Charles City, IA; High Point, NC
ANPP, thebaine, noroxymorphone "for conversion"; High Point oxymorphone
Cambrex
$130m-plus Charles City build; CEO change Oct 1, 2026
Curia New York; Curia Missouri
Rensselaer, NY; Springfield, MO
Schedule II API for development and distribution; phenylacetone at Springfield
Private (ex-AMRI)
Rensselaer expansion Aug 2021
Veranova
Devens, MA; West Deptford, NJ
HPAPI and ADC linker-payloads at OEL below 0.01 µg/m³; Schedule I and II codes
Altaris, since 2022
$30m Devens suites; 10 years of linker-payloads
Pharmaron (US)
Coventry, RI
Oxycodone, thebaine, oxymorphone for clinical material
Pharmaron (Beijing)
Bought from Noramco, May 2022
Piramal Pharma Solutions
Riverview, MI
Commercial HPAPI at 10 ng/m³
Piramal (Mumbai)
The lowest stated OEL in the US
NorthStar; SHINE
Beloit and Janesville, WI
Non-uranium Mo-99; Ac-225 and Lu-177 doses; SHINE runs the ex-Lantheus SPECT plant
Private
$194m plant; $185m Hercules-led financing
Evergreen (Lantheus)
Springfield, NJ
Radiopharma CDMO plus pipeline
Lantheus, Apr 2025
$276.4m upfront; up to $727.5m milestones
The majors: Siegfried (CHF 1,328m 2025 sales; four US controlled-substance addresses), Curium ($7bn CapVest recapitalization, 2026), Thermo Fisher's Patheon API (Florence, SC), Novartis as the RLT demand anchor, BMS, AstraZeneca and Lilly as platform owners since 2023.
India and China: an offshore site can't hold a US bulk-manufacturer registration and Schedule II imports are quota-gated, so the path is owning a US address: Pharmaron in Coventry, Piramal in Riverview.
Sources: Federal Register API: DEA bulk-manufacturer application notices, Jan 1, 2025 to Sep 28, 2026 (113 notices); Siegfried media releases, Jan 27 and Apr 24, 2026; SK Capital via Business Wire, May 1, 2026; Cambrex CEO transition release, Oct 1, 2026; Johnson Matthey on the sale of Health to Altaris, Jun 1, 2022; DEA notice, Pharmaron Manufacturing Services (US), Coventry RI, Apr 1, 2026; Pharmaron release May 24, 2022; Piramal Pharma Solutions, Riverview MI facility page; NorthStar Medical Radioisotopes news page, incl. Sep 29, 2026 financing (headlines); Lantheus Holdings 10-K for FY2025, Feb 26, 2026; Curium, Our history and Locations pages (opened Oct 9, 2026).
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com85
AGA·DWG / SHEET 86 · SEGMENT 8 · THE DEALS · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
LICENSED HANDLING · THE DEALS, 2022 TO 2026
$4.1bn and $2.0bn for radiopharma platforms and $276m for a contract maker. Plus the one multiple ever stated for a US licensed site.
DATE
WHO
WHAT
TERMS
PAID FOR
May 24, 2022
Pharmaron
Noramco's Coventry, RI API site
Undisclosed
US cGMP kg-to-ton capacity, FDA and EMA inspected
Oct 2023
Eli Lilly
POINT Biopharma (Indianapolis; in-house RLT plant)
$12.50 a share tender
Rationale not in the filing opened
Dec 26, 2023
Bristol Myers Squibb
RayzeBio (San Diego; Indianapolis plant)
$62.50 a share; ~$4.1bn equity
Actinium platform and "state of the art" manufacturing
Mar 19, 2024
AstraZeneca
Fusion Pharmaceuticals
~$2.0bn upfront, ~$2.4bn with CVR
Oncology fit and an "actinium-225 supply chain"
Jun 27, 2024
Veranova (capex)
Devens, MA HPAPI and ADC suites
About $30m
OEL below 0.01 µg/m³; US ADC capacity
Apr 1, 2025
Lantheus
Evergreen Theragnostics (Springfield, NJ)
$276.4m upfront; up to $727.5m milestones
Radiopharma CDMO plus pipeline
Jan 1, 2026
SHINE Technologies
Lantheus SPECT business, North Billerica
Not disclosed
Legacy generators; Lantheus refocuses on PET
May 1, 2026
Siegfried
Noramco, Purisys, Extractas, from SK Capital
"Below 10x EV/EBITDA"; ~$155m annualized sales
"US-based manufacturing capacity, which is highly demanded"
2026
CapVest
Curium recapitalization
Valued at $7bn
Established-product growth in nuclear medicine
Mar to Aug 2026
Cambrex (capex)
Charles City, IA
$130m-plus; 140,000 L; H2 2028
US small-molecule API capacity
Sep 29, 2026
Hercules Capital (lead)
NorthStar growth financing
Up to $185m
Ac-225 production and radiopharma manufacturing
The pattern: big pharma paid billions for RLT platforms and named the manufacturing and isotope supply in the rationale; a listed CDMO paid "below 10x" for the US quota network; the sponsor exits (SK Capital, Noramco) were to strategics. The FT reported a Cambrex sale process in Sep 2025; nobody has confirmed it, so I print no value.
Sources: DEA notice, Pharmaron Manufacturing Services (US), Coventry RI, Apr 1, 2026; Pharmaron release May 24, 2022; POINT Biopharma 8-K, Lilly merger agreement, Oct 2, 2023; RayzeBio 8-K Ex. 99.1, BMS merger, Dec 26, 2023; AstraZeneca on acquiring Fusion Pharmaceuticals, Mar 19, 2024; Veranova on its Devens ADC and HPAPI expansion, Jun 27, 2024; Lantheus Holdings 10-K for FY2025, Feb 26, 2026; Siegfried media releases, Jan 27 and Apr 24, 2026; SK Capital via Business Wire, May 1, 2026; Curium, Our history and Locations pages (opened Oct 9, 2026); Cambrex on US and European expansions, Mar 23, 2026; DCAT on Charles City, Aug 13, 2026; NorthStar Medical Radioisotopes news page, incl. Sep 29, 2026 financing (headlines); Fierce Pharma, citing the FT, on a reported Cambrex sale process, Sep 9, 2025 (homepage; article URL withheld).
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com86
AGA·DWG / SHEET 87 · SEGMENT 8 · THE CALL · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
LICENSED HANDLING · MY CALL, AND WHAT WOULD CHANGE IT
My call: a US site with commercial Schedule II quota or a licensed isotope line is my third pick. I'd price it off Siegfried's number.
WHAT COULD BREAK IT
WHAT I'D WATCH
HOW I'D KNOW I'M WRONG
The quota pool keeps shrinking into the stimulant classes too
DEA's 2027 APQ order (due around Dec 2026); lisdexamfetamine and methylphenidate lines
Stimulant APQs flat or up for 2027
Siegfried can't earn group margin on US controlled substances
Siegfried FY2026 release (Feb 2027): US contribution vs the $100m guide; Drug Substances margin
At or above the guide and the margin
The RLT buyers bring isotopes in-house and the merchant line starves
Novartis, BMS, AstraZeneca capex releases; NorthStar and SHINE start dates
Merchant Ac-225 and Mo-99 lines on schedule with named customers
Pharma as the only buyer makes this a pharma-cycle bet
FDA shortage list; psychedelic trial starts; DEA Schedule I application count
Entry applications still above 50 a year and no shortage declared
SPONSOR
Buy the quota, then the codes
Read each target's Federal Register notice: codes, purpose, address. ANPP, thebaine and commercial quota are the asset; a registration alone isn't.
OWNER
Your notice is your pitch
Lead with the drug codes, the quota history, the intermediate codes that let a customer run a whole route at your address, and the inspection record.
BANKER
One stated multiple, use it carefully
Siegfried's "below 10x" bought a four-site network into a listed group. A single US address with commercial quota has no public comp; say so and price the gate.
WHAT WOULD CHANGE MY MIND
A second party printing a multiple below Siegfried's, or DEA cutting the stimulant classes for 2027. Either one and licensed handling drops behind organometallics on the guide.
Sources: DEA Established Aggregate Production Quotas for 2026, 91 FR 287, Jan 5, 2026; DEA release Jan 9, 2026; Siegfried media releases, Jan 27 and Apr 24, 2026; SK Capital via Business Wire, May 1, 2026; Novartis FY2025 release and product sales, Feb 4, 2026; Q2 2026 release, Jul 2026; NorthStar Medical Radioisotopes news page, incl. Sep 29, 2026 financing (headlines); Federal Register API: DEA bulk-manufacturer application notices, Jan 1, 2025 to Sep 28, 2026 (113 notices).
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com87
AGA·DWG / SHEET 88 · PART 2 · SKILL 9 OF 9
August GraceADVISORY
PART 2 OF 4 · THE NINE SKILLS · SKILL 9 OF 9
Modality synthesis
Peptides, oligos and lipids, made for one big buyer that is now building its own plants.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com88
AGA·DWG / SHEET 89 · SEGMENT 9 OF 9 · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
SEGMENT 09 · MODALITY SYNTHESIS
Peptides, oligos and lipids, made for one big buyer that's now building its own plants. The window has an end date, and capex has run up to half of sales.
Why it matters: GLP-1 demand reshaped this segment. Bachem guides 35% to 40% growth for 2026 on more than CHF 400m of capex. CordenPharma committed €900m against about €3bn of contracts. Samsung Biologics offered CHF 1.46bn for PolyPeptide. The scarce piece is purification. But the biggest buyer, Lilly, is spending $17.5bn on its own plants, and Huntsville finishes in 2032. Capacity bought without a contract is a bet on that window.
WHAT IT MAKES
Peptide and oligo API, lipids
GLP-1 peptides by SPPS; siRNA, antisense and guide RNA by amidite chemistry; ionizable lipids for mRNA. All pharma.
WHY IT'S SCARCE
Purification is the bottleneck
CordenPharma bought North Augusta for "purification and lyophilization." A validated HPLC and freeze-drying train takes years; reactors take one.
WHO'S PAYING
Strategics, sponsors, BARDA
Samsung for PolyPeptide; Agilent $725m and $925m (BIOVECTRA); Lilly $17.5bn in-house; BARDA up to $150m of Evonik's lipid plant.
Where I land: for a mid-market buyer, avoid it without a contract (sheet 18). A US peptide or oligo line backed by a multi-year supply deal is a fine asset. One built on spec is a bet that the drug companies' own plants run late. Building blocks and lipids with public cost-share are the safer way in.
Sources: Bachem H1 2026 release, Jul 30, 2026; CordenPharma on its €900m peptide platform expansion, Jul 16, 2024; Samsung Biologics all-cash offer for PolyPeptide, Jul 20, 2026; CordenPharma on acquiring AmbioPharm, May 27, 2026 (closed Aug 3, 2026); Fierce Pharma on Lilly's $6bn Huntsville, AL API plant, Dec 9, 2025; Agilent on its $725m Frederick, CO oligo expansion, Jan 9, 2023; Agilent completion release on BIOVECTRA, Sep 20, 2024; Evonik on the $220m Lafayette, IN lipid plant and BARDA cost share, Mar 29, 2023.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com89
AGA·DWG / SHEET 90 · SEGMENT 9 · SIZE · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
MODALITY SYNTHESIS · HOW BIG IT IS
There's no US size. Bachem grew 2.5 times since 2018. Its biggest buyer grew even faster and is building its own plants.
THE PURE PLAYS
Bachem, PolyPeptide
Bachem CHF 282m (2018) to CHF 695m (2025), EBITDA 30.9%; 2026 guide +35% to +40%. PolyPeptide EUR 337m to EUR 389m; H1 2026 +41.6%.
THE DEMAND
Tirzepatide $36.5bn
Lilly's Mounjaro $11.5bn to $23.0bn and Zepbound $4.9bn to $13.5bn in one year; 2026 revenue guided $80bn to $83bn. The peptide plants are built for this.
THE OLIGO SIDE
Counted in moles
Agilent's estimate: $1bn in 2023 to $2.4bn in 2027. WuXi TIDES RMB 11.4bn in 2025, +96%. Nitto's segment +25.6% on one commercial oligo project.
Forward, dated: Bachem ~$250m in the US 2026 to 2030; CordenPharma €900m 2024 to 2027; Agilent's Trains C and D shipping from 2026; Lilly Huntsville 2026 to 2032, Houston $6.5bn, Virginia $5bn; SK pharmteco $200m over five years. The sponsor's plants are the ceiling on all of it.
Sources: Bachem Annual Report 2025 and FY2025 media release, Mar 12, 2026; CHEManager on Bachem 2020 results, Mar 12, 2021; moneycab on Bachem 2018, Mar 8, 2019; Bachem H1 2026 release, Jul 30, 2026; PolyPeptide FY2025 media release, Mar 12, 2026; H1 2026 business review, Aug 13, 2026; Eli Lilly Q4 and FY2025 results, Feb 4, 2026; Agilent on its $725m Frederick, CO oligo expansion, Jan 9, 2023; WuXi AppTec 2025 results release, Mar 23, 2026; Nitto Denko Q1 FY2026 results, Jul 28, 2026; Bachem on Building K and the Vista, CA expansion, Oct 23, 2025; CordenPharma on its €900m peptide platform expansion, Jul 16, 2024; Fierce Pharma on Lilly's $6bn Huntsville, AL API plant, Dec 9, 2025; C&EN on SK pharmteco's $200m US plan, Oct 7, 2026.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com90
AGA·DWG / SHEET 91 · SEGMENT 9 · WHY IT EARNS MORE · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
MODALITY SYNTHESIS · WHY IT EARNS MORE
The approved process keeps the customer, and purification is the bottleneck. I want to see the contract signed before the concrete is poured.
THE FILING
A registered process
A peptide or oligo API is filed with its maker's process. PolyPeptide supports 68 commercial projects and 30 in Phase III; the commercial line is the annuity.
THE TRAIN
Purification and lyophilization
CordenPharma's stated reason for North Augusta. PolyPeptide's Torrance plan is "downstream capacity." Reactors in a year; a validated HPLC train, not.
THE CONTRACT
€3bn before €900m
CordenPharma built against "multiple, long-term, multiyear contracts totaling ~€3bn." Agilent built Trains C and D against named demand classes.
THE SUBSIDY
BARDA pays for lipids
Up to $150m of Evonik's $220m Lafayette plant; up to $75m of Croda's $133m Lamar project. The government priced US lipid capacity as scarce.
THE MARGIN
Utilization of a fixed train
Bachem 27.6% (2018), 30.9% (2025), 25.4% in H1 2026 during Building K start-up. PolyPeptide 7.5% (2024) to 12.0% (2025). The spread is utilization.
THE BUILDING BLOCK
Specified in the filing
Amidites and protected amino acids are named in the filed process; changing supplier is a change control. Hongene states 58 t of amidite capacity in Shanghai.
MY READ
What this means for price: the asset is the filed process plus the downstream train plus the contract that fills it. Capacity without the third is what the sponsor's own plants are built to make redundant, on a schedule that's now public.
Sources: PolyPeptide FY2025 media release, Mar 12, 2026; H1 2026 business review, Aug 13, 2026; Bachem Annual Report 2025 and FY2025 media release, Mar 12, 2026; CordenPharma on acquiring AmbioPharm, May 27, 2026 (closed Aug 3, 2026); CordenPharma on its €900m peptide platform expansion, Jul 16, 2024; Agilent on its $725m Frederick, CO oligo expansion, Jan 9, 2023; Evonik on the $220m Lafayette, IN lipid plant and BARDA cost share, Mar 29, 2023; Croda on US government support for Lamar, PA lipid capacity, Jun 28, 2022; Bachem H1 2026 release, Jul 30, 2026; CHEManager on Bachem 2020 results, Mar 12, 2021; moneycab on Bachem 2018, Mar 8, 2019; Hongene on 58 t of phosphoramidite capacity (undated page); Fierce Pharma on Lilly's $6bn Huntsville, AL API plant, Dec 9, 2025.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com91
AGA·DWG / SHEET 92 · SEGMENT 9 · HOW THEY GET PAID · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
MODALITY SYNTHESIS · HOW THEY GET PAID
Commercial products run on multi-year supply deals, and development is billed by project. During the build-out, capex ran a quarter to half of sales.
PEPTIDE API
OLIGO API
LIPIDS
Contract shape
Multi-year commercial supply plus per-batch development; CordenPharma ~€3bn of contracts behind €900m. Take-or-pay terms not public
Capacity built against demand classes (Agilent); one "large-scale" commercial project drives Nitto's segment
Government cost-share plus commercial supply: BARDA up to $150m (Evonik), up to $75m (Croda)
Pricing
Development per kilo prices above commercial; Bachem CMC Development +29.7%, Commercial API +5.0% (2025)
Not disclosed
Not disclosed
Capex per dollar of sales
PolyPeptide 28.2% (2025), guided 15% to 20%; Bachem 48% (CHF 332.6m on CHF 695.1m), 2026 above CHF 400m
Agilent $725m on an undisclosed oligo line; Nitto ¥25bn (~$226m) at Milford
Evonik $220m; Croda up to $133m; revenue not disclosed
Utilization and margin
Bachem H1 2026 margin 25.4% from 29.1% on Building K start-up; FY guide assumes it fills
Not disclosed
Not disclosed
Mix in the cycle
Bachem H1 2026: CMC Development +39.5% LC, Commercial API -19.3% LC. Development is lumpy and dear; commercial is volume
Pre-clinical to "1000 kg+" at one site (Avecia)
Research channel (Avanti) feeds GMP supply
The ceiling
Lilly's $17.5bn of own API plants, Huntsville complete 2032
Sponsor insourcing not announced in the pages opened
Not applicable
MY READ
Both pure plays spent a quarter to half of sales on plant in 2025, and the margin moved with utilization. I'd underwrite the contract book and the start-up curve of the new building before I'd look at the GLP-1 headline.
Sources: CordenPharma on its €900m peptide platform expansion, Jul 16, 2024; Agilent on its $725m Frederick, CO oligo expansion, Jan 9, 2023; Nitto Denko Q1 FY2026 results, Jul 28, 2026; Evonik on the $220m Lafayette, IN lipid plant and BARDA cost share, Mar 29, 2023; Croda on US government support for Lamar, PA lipid capacity, Jun 28, 2022; Bachem Annual Report 2025 and FY2025 media release, Mar 12, 2026; PolyPeptide FY2025 media release, Mar 12, 2026; H1 2026 business review, Aug 13, 2026; Bachem H1 2026 release, Jul 30, 2026; Nitto Denko on Avecia Milford capacity, Jul 20, 2017; Fierce Pharma on the $226m build, Mar 31, 2021; Fierce Pharma on Lilly's $6bn Huntsville, AL API plant, Dec 9, 2025.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com92
AGA·DWG / SHEET 93 · SEGMENT 9 · WHO PLAYS · AS OF OCT 13, 2026
MODALITY SYNTHESIS · WHO PLAYS
Two listed peptide makers, one big sponsor-owned player, two oligo sites and two lipid plants. Plus one drug company building three plants of its own.
WHO
WHERE
WHAT IT RUNS
OWNER
WORTH KNOWING
Bachem Americas
Vista and Torrance, CA
High-volume peptide API at Vista (226 staff); small-volume at Torrance (203)
Bachem Holding (SIX-listed)
~$250m US program 2026 to 2030
PolyPeptide
Torrance, CA
Peptide API; downstream expansion planned; group EUR 389m
SIX-listed; Samsung Biologics offer
CHF 44.31 cash, ~CHF 1.46bn, 40% premium; 87.6% tendered by Oct 12
CordenPharma
Boulder, CO; North Augusta, SC
Peptide API; new Boulder facility; North Augusta purification and lyophilization
Astorg, since 2022
€900m program; ~€3bn of contracts; AmbioPharm Aug 2026
Agilent NASD
Frederick, CO
Oligo API: siRNA, antisense, guide RNA; $725m Trains C and D
Agilent (NYSE)
Advanced therapeutics up "nearly 30%" in Q3 FY2026
Nitto Avecia
Milford, MA; Cincinnati, OH
Oligo API to "1000 kg+"; 3.0 mol at Milford
Nitto Denko, since 2011
¥25bn Milford build; live early 2023
Evonik Tippecanoe
Lafayette, IN
Specialty lipids for mRNA and nucleic-acid therapies
Evonik
$220m; BARDA up to $150m; operations scheduled 2025
Croda Avanti; Croda Lamar
Alabama; Lamar, PA
High-purity polar lipids; new lipid systems facility
Croda, since Aug 2020
$185m plus earnout; Lamar up to $133m, $75m federal
CSBio
Menlo Park, CA
Peptide synthesizers; custom and cGMP peptides
Private, since 1993
35,000 sq ft cGMP added 2015
Lilly (future)
Huntsville, AL; Houston; Virginia
Own peptide and small-molecule API
Eli Lilly
$6bn, $6.5bn, $5bn; Huntsville 2026 to 2032
The majors: Bachem (CHF 695m), PolyPeptide (EUR 389m), CordenPharma (€960m group), Agilent with BIOVECTRA ($925m agreed, 2024), Nitto Denko, Evonik, Croda; Samsung Biologics entering by the PolyPeptide offer; SK pharmteco adding $200m.
India and China: WuXi AppTec TIDES (RMB 11.4bn, over 100,000 L of SPPS) and Hongene (58 t of amidites) set the price floor; CordenPharma kept AmbioPharm's Shanghai plant as upstream. The US sites sell supply security and proximity under Section 232.
Sources: Bachem Annual Report 2025 and FY2025 media release, Mar 12, 2026; PolyPeptide FY2025 media release, Mar 12, 2026; H1 2026 business review, Aug 13, 2026; Samsung Biologics all-cash offer for PolyPeptide, Jul 20, 2026; Samsung Peptide interim result, via PolyPeptide, Oct 13 and Oct 16, 2026; CordenPharma on acquiring AmbioPharm, May 27, 2026 (closed Aug 3, 2026); Agilent Q3 FY2026 earnings call transcript, Aug 2026; Nitto Denko on Avecia Milford capacity, Jul 20, 2017; Fierce Pharma on the $226m build, Mar 31, 2021; Evonik on the $220m Lafayette, IN lipid plant and BARDA cost share, Mar 29, 2023; Croda on US government support for Lamar, PA lipid capacity, Jun 28, 2022; BioSpace on CS Bio's expansion plans, Jul 14, 2017; Fierce Pharma on Lilly's $6bn Huntsville, AL API plant, Dec 9, 2025; WuXi AppTec 2025 results release, Mar 23, 2026; Hongene on 58 t of phosphoramidite capacity (undated page); C&EN on SK pharmteco's $200m US plan, Oct 7, 2026.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com93
AGA·DWG / SHEET 94 · SEGMENT 9 · THE DEALS · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
MODALITY SYNTHESIS · THE DEALS, 2017 TO 2026
Over $20bn of announced plants, a CHF 1.46bn take-private offer, and government money for lipids. No one stated a multiple.
DATE
WHO
WHAT
TERMS
PAID FOR
Jul 20, 2017
Nitto Denko Avecia
Milford, MA oligo capacity
20,000 sq ft; 1.2 to 3.0 mol
"Largest oligonucleotide manufacturing site in the world"
Aug 13, 2020
Croda
Avanti Polar Lipids, Alabama
$185m; earnout to $75m
mRNA vaccine lipids; drug-delivery R&D
Mar 31, 2021
Nitto Denko
Avecia Milford build
¥25bn (~$226m)
Commercial oligo line, live early 2023
Jun 28, 2022
Croda and US government
Lamar, PA lipid systems facility
Up to $133m; federal up to $75m
Third lipid site; capacity 2025
Jan 9, 2023
Agilent
Frederick, CO oligo Trains C and D
~$725m
Double oligo API capacity; shipments 2026
Mar 29, 2023
Evonik and BARDA
Lafayette, IN Lipid Innovation Center
$220m; BARDA up to $150m
Specialty lipids for mRNA
Jul 16, 2024
CordenPharma (Astorg)
Peptide platform, Colorado and Europe
~€900m over three years
GLP-1 demand; ~€3bn of contracts
Sep 20, 2024
Agilent
BIOVECTRA (Canada)
$925m agreed; $113m 2023 revenue
HPAPI, biologics, LNP formulation
Oct 23, 2025
Bachem
Vista, CA adjacent property; US program
~$250m, 2026 to 2030
Upstream and downstream at Vista; Torrance automation
Dec 9, 2025
Eli Lilly
Huntsville, AL API plant (with Houston, Virginia)
$6bn; $17.5bn across three
Own peptide and small-molecule API, 2032
Aug 3, 2026
CordenPharma
AmbioPharm (North Augusta, SC; Shanghai)
Undisclosed; sellers reinvest
US purification and lyophilization; Shanghai upstream
Jul 20, 2026
Samsung Biologics
PolyPeptide Group (offer)
CHF 44.31 cash; ~CHF 1.46bn; 40% premium
"modality expansion into peptides including GLP-1" (Samsung)
The pattern: strategics and sponsors spent on plant, not on each other, until 2024; then Agilent, CordenPharma and Samsung bought sites and companies at disclosed or undisclosed prices and nobody stated a multiple. The government paid for lipids. The largest customer built its own. Samsung gave its reason in its own release: "This acquisition reinforces our long-term growth strategy by not only broadening our service portfolio with modality expansion into peptides including GLP-1, but by also boosting our geographic reach and proximity further within the US, Europe, and India," said John Rim, its chairman and CEO (Jul 20, 2026). It stated no multiple.
Sources: Nitto Denko, Jul 20, 2017; Fierce Pharma, Mar 31, 2021 and Dec 9, 2025; Croda Pharma on Avanti, Jul 6 and Aug 13, 2020; Croda on Lamar, PA, Jun 28, 2022; Agilent, Jan 9, 2023 and Sep 20, 2024; Evonik, Mar 29, 2023; CordenPharma, Jul 16, 2024 and May 27, 2026 (closed Aug 3, 2026); Bachem, Oct 23, 2025; Samsung Biologics all-cash offer for PolyPeptide, Jul 20, 2026.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com94
AGA·DWG / SHEET 95 · SEGMENT 9 · WHAT TO WATCH · AS OF OCT 13, 2026
MODALITY SYNTHESIS · WHAT TO WATCH
In December 2025 the biggest GLP-1 maker dated its own drug ingredient plants. The contract makers are building before those plants open.
WHAT MOVED
The buyer became the builder
Lilly's three API plants are the demand-side answer to CDMO pricing. The three peptide houses all added US capacity between Oct 2025 and Aug 2026 anyway.
WHAT HASN'T
The downstream bottleneck
Purification and lyophilization are still what gets bought (North Augusta) and planned (Torrance). Reactors haven't been the constraint.
THE FALSIFIER
Bachem FY2026, Mar 4, 2027
Commercial API (down 19.3% LC in H1 2026) not turning positive and FY growth under the 35% floor: the window is shorter than the capex assumes.
The other direction: if Lilly or Novo signs a multi-year peptide API supply contract with a merchant house in 2027, insourcing is slower than announced and the window is longer. I'd watch for the contract more than the groundbreaking.
Sources: Agilent on its $725m Frederick, CO oligo expansion, Jan 9, 2023; Evonik on the $220m Lafayette, IN lipid plant and BARDA cost share, Mar 29, 2023; CordenPharma on its €900m peptide platform expansion, Jul 16, 2024; Bachem on Building K and the Vista, CA expansion, Oct 23, 2025; Fierce Pharma on Lilly's $6bn Huntsville, AL API plant, Dec 9, 2025; Samsung Biologics all-cash offer for PolyPeptide, Jul 20, 2026; Samsung Peptide interim result, via PolyPeptide, Oct 13 and Oct 16, 2026; CordenPharma on acquiring AmbioPharm, May 27, 2026 (closed Aug 3, 2026); Bachem H1 2026 release, Jul 30, 2026.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com95
AGA·DWG / SHEET 96 · SEGMENT 9 · THE CALL · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
MODALITY SYNTHESIS · MY CALL, AND WHAT WOULD CHANGE IT
My call: for a mid-market buyer, skip peptide or oligo capacity bought without contracts. Buy one with a contract book, or the building blocks and lipids underneath.
WHAT COULD BREAK IT
WHAT I'D WATCH
HOW I'D KNOW I'M WRONG
The window is longer than 2032 and the capex pays
Lilly and Novo CDMO supply announcements; Huntsville and Houston completion dates
A multi-year merchant contract from either sponsor in 2027
Bachem fills Building K and holds a low-thirties margin
Bachem FY2026 release, Mar 4, 2027: growth vs the 35% floor; Commercial API line
Growth at or above 35% LC and Commercial API positive in H2
Chinese upstream makes the US downstream the only thing worth owning
WuXi TIDES growth; Section 232 lane rulings on peptide API; CordenPharma's Shanghai-to-North Augusta flow
A US house sourcing fragments from China under a published tariff treatment
Lipids and amidites are a better entry than API
Evonik Lafayette and Croda Lamar operating status; any US amidite plant announcement; Hongene's share
Both lipid plants running with named customers by 2027
SPONSOR
Underwrite the contract book
Ask for supply agreements by molecule and term, the downstream train's validation status, and the start-up curve of any new building.
OWNER
Your downstream and your filings are the pitch
Lead with preparative HPLC and lyophilization capacity, solvent recovery, the filed processes, and the commercial molecules under contract. Reactors last.
BANKER
The comps are strategics buying capacity, with no multiple
Samsung, Agilent and CordenPharma bought sites and companies and said nothing about price. Position a US train on its contract book and its 2032 exposure.
WHAT WOULD CHANGE MY MIND
A merchant peptide supply contract from Lilly or Novo running past 2032, disclosed. That would move modality synthesis from avoid-for-mid-market to watch, and make the contracted US train a buy.
Sources: Fierce Pharma on Lilly's $6bn Huntsville, AL API plant, Dec 9, 2025; Bachem H1 2026 release, Jul 30, 2026; WuXi AppTec 2025 results release, Mar 23, 2026; Proclamation 11020, 91 FR 18183, Apr 9, 2026; CBP CSMS 70054007, Sep 28, 2026; Evonik on the $220m Lafayette, IN lipid plant and BARDA cost share, Mar 29, 2023; Croda on US government support for Lamar, PA lipid capacity, Jun 28, 2022; Hongene on 58 t of phosphoramidite capacity (undated page).
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com96
AGA·DWG / SHEET 97 · PART 3 · THE DEALS
August GraceADVISORY
PART 3 OF 4 · THE DEALS, AND WHAT I'D DO
The deals, and what I'd do
The deal tape across all nine skills, what I'd do in each seat, who is struggling, and the dates that will test my ranking.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com97
AGA·DWG / SHEET 98 · WHAT I'D DO · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
WHAT I'D DO · BY READER
Whatever your seat, read the regulator's filing before the banker's book. And price the liability along with the permit.
SPONSOR
OWNER
BANKER
First 30 days
Pull the RMP, HON and DEA registrant lists for the top three skills (6, 1, 8). Every permitted US site with a Western customer is a name.
Write the one-page version of your premium sheet: the permit, the qualifications, the customers with no second source. Reactors go on page two.
Sort your pipeline by skill, not by end market. A nitration house and a peptide house are different sales with different comps.
The screen
Permit at the address; a customer who'd fail without it; a hazard someone else pays to avoid. Pass on capacity sold only on price.
Which of the nine skills you run, which step, and which of the three buyers pays you. If the answer is 'all of them,' a buyer will price you as capacity, so name the one you'd defend.
Strategics with an end-market reason (Orica, NewMarket, Fujifilm, Siegfried) paid disclosed prices; sponsors didn't. Pitch the strategic first.
The question to ask
What would it cost the customer to leave?
What did VanDeMark's buyer say it bought? "Domestic production capacity." Can you say the same, with evidence?
Which segment tape is this plant on, and what did the last buyer on that tape say it paid for?
The comp to use
Party-stated multiples for US site sales: Grace 9.5x, Anupam ~9x, Orica 7.5x, Siegfried "below 10x". JM 13.3x, Indorama 6.3x and H.B. Fuller under 6x are adjacent.
Dottikon's 34.6% EBITDA on one hazardous site is the ceiling; EUROAPI's 5.8% on generic API is the floor. Know which you look like.
Jayhawk's ~$134m EV on ~$78m of revenue (about 1.7x, my arithmetic) is the smallest US multipurpose-site print.
What I'd avoid
A modality build without a sponsor contract (9); a catalog without a plant (7); capacity with no permit or qualified customer behind it.
Pitching 'CDMO' as the category. Pitch the skill and its gate.
Printing a multiple nobody stated. Every multiple on the tape names who said it.
THE NUMBER I'D MOST LIKE
A Western fluorination site's price
The comp behind my second pick doesn't exist yet. The first disclosed sale resets the fluorine call either way.
THE FILE I'D READ FIRST
Read the regulator first
An RMP registration, a DEA notice with its drug codes, an A2LA scope. They say what the site can legally do; the book says what it hopes to.
THE MEETING I'D TAKE
A permitted site under strain
Lockport shows why: the permit and the people outlasted the owner's balance sheet. Strain like that is public, in filings and local news, before a sale process starts.
MY READ
The ranking is on my ranking (sheet 18): hazardous, fluorine, licensed, then organometallics and high pressure. Each call sheet says what would change my mind.
Sources: DEA bulk-manufacturer notices via the Federal Register API, Jan 2025 to Sep 2026; PE Professional, Apr 24, 2019, and Pulse 2.0, Jun 23, 2026, on VanDeMark; C&EN, Mar 13, 2026; Siegfried, Jan 27 and Apr 24, 2026; SK Capital, May 1, 2026; Dottikon results (Moneycab; Finanz und Wirtschaft) and revenues page; EUROAPI, Jul 29, 2026; Grace, Feb 25, 2021; Orica, Feb 21, 2024; Anupam (NSE), Dec 9, 2025.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com98
AGA·DWG / SHEET 99 · ALL THE DEALS UNDER $1BN · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
ALL SEGMENTS · DEALS UNDER $1BN, 2018 TO 2026
Five of twelve deals came with a multiple a party stated, from 7.5x to just under 10x. Sponsors buying independents didn't state one.
DATE (A = ANNOUNCED, C = CLOSED)
TARGET
BUYER
SELLER
EV OR PRICE
SALES AND EBITDA (WHO SAID IT)
MULTIPLE A PARTY STATED
SOURCE
A Jul 17, 2018 C Sep 4, 2018
AMPAC Fine Chemicals (Rancho Cordova, CA; four US sites)
SK Holdings
H.I.G. Capital
not stated
Sales over $200m (seller)
not stated
H.I.G. on the sale, Sep 4, 2018
A Feb 25, 2021 C Jun 1, 2021
Albemarle Fine Chemistry Services (Tyrone, PA; South Haven, MI)
W. R. Grace
Albemarle
~$570m ($300m cash, $270m preferred)
EBITDA ~$60m 2021 run-rate (buyer)
9.5x 2021 run-rate EBITDA (buyer)
Grace and Albemarle, Feb 25, 2021; Grace 8-K, Jun 1, 2021
A Dec 17, 2021 C Jun 1, 2022
Johnson Matthey Health, now Veranova
Altaris
Johnson Matthey
£325m EV
Sales £237m, FY to Mar 2021 (seller) EBITDA £33.0m LTM to Sep 2021 (seller)
9.8x underlying EBITDA (seller)
JM, Dec 17, 2021 and Jun 1, 2022
A May 10, 2023 C Oct 2, 2023
Entegris Electronic Chemicals (7 plants)
Fujifilm
Entegris
$700m
Sales ~$360m 2022 pro forma (seller)
not stated
Entegris, May 10 and Oct 2, 2023
A Dec 4, 2023 C Jan 16, 2024
AMPAC (Cedar City, UT; perchlorate)
NewMarket
not stated
~$700m
not stated
not stated
NewMarket, Dec 4, 2023 and Jan 16, 2024
A Feb 21, 2024 C Apr 30, 2024
Cyanco (sodium cyanide; NV and TX)
Orica
Cerberus
$640m EV
not stated
7.5x CY2023 EBITDA pre-synergy; 6.7x with synergies (buyer)
Siegfried, Jan 27 and Apr 24, 2026; SK Capital, May 1, 2026
Jun 2026 (reported)
VanDeMark (Lockport, NY; phosgene)
Valiant Energy Management
Comvest-owned since 2019
not stated
not stated
not stated
Pulse 2.0, Jun 23, 2026; PE Professional, Apr 24, 2019
A May 27, 2026 C Aug 3, 2026
AmbioPharm (North Augusta, SC; Shanghai)
CordenPharma
not stated
not stated
not stated
not stated
CordenPharma, May 27, 2026
How to read it: "Not stated" means neither party gave the figure in the release I opened. I didn't find a press-reported multiple for any of these deals, so none is shown. Deals over $1bn are on the next sheet, kept apart because they don't comp a mid-market plant. All of them sit on one timeline on sheet 7.
Sources: the documents named in the source column, each dated; full links on sheet 106 and in Appendix A. Multiples are only those a buyer or seller stated in its own release or filing.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com99
AGA·DWG / SHEET 100 · THE BIG DEALS · AS OF OCT 16, 2026
ALL SEGMENTS · DEALS OVER $1BN
The big deals, kept separate. They show the ceiling. They aren't a comparison for a $30m to $150m plant.
DATE (A = ANNOUNCED, C = CLOSED)
TARGET
BUYER
SELLER
EV OR PRICE
SALES AND EBITDA (WHO SAID IT)
MULTIPLE A PARTY STATED
SOURCE
A Aug 15, 2018 C Nov 15, 2018
KMG Chemicals (fab chemicals, Fort Worth)
Cabot Microelectronics
Public holders
~$1.6bn EV
not stated
10.9x FY2018E adjusted EBITDA after $25m synergies (buyer)
Cabot, Aug 15 and Nov 15, 2018
A Apr 12, 2019 C Oct 7, 2019
Versum Materials (Tempe, AZ)
Merck KGaA
Public holders
~€5.8bn EV; $53 a share
not stated
~13.7x 2019E consensus EBITDA; 11.6x with synergies (buyer)
Merck KGaA, Apr 12, 2019; completion, Oct 7, 2019
A Aug 7, 2019 C Dec 4, 2019
Cambrex (Charles City, IA; High Point, NC)
Permira funds
Public holders
~$2.4bn incl. net debt; $60.00 a share
not stated
not stated
Cambrex 8-Ks, Aug 7 and Dec 4, 2019
A Feb 8, 2021 C Jul 1, 2021
Lonza Specialty Ingredients, now Arxada (17 sites)
Bain Capital and Cinven
Lonza
CHF 4.2bn EV
not stated
not stated
Lonza, Feb 8 and Jul 2, 2021
A Dec 14, 2021 C Jul 6, 2022
CMC Materials, incl. KMG
Entegris
Public holders
~$6.5bn EV announced; ~$5.7bn paid
not stated
not stated
Entegris, Dec 14, 2021 and Jul 6, 2022
A Feb 5, 2024 C Dec 18, 2024
Catalent
Novo Holdings
Public holders
~$16.5bn EV; $63.50 a share
not stated
not stated
Catalent, Feb 5, 2024; 8-K, Dec 18, 2024
A May 22, 2025 C Jul 17, 2026
JM Catalyst Technologies
Honeywell
Johnson Matthey
£1.8bn EV; £1.325bn cash at close
not stated
13.3x agreed EBITDA (seller)
JM, May 22, 2025; Honeywell, Jul 17, 2026
A Jul 20, 2026 87.6% tendered
PolyPeptide Group
Samsung Biologics (offer)
Public holders; Draupnir's 55.65% committed
CHF 44.31 a share; ~CHF 1.46bn
not stated
not stated
Samsung Biologics, Jul 20, 2026; PolyPeptide, Oct 13 and 16, 2026
Status notes: Cambrex: a further sale process was reported by the FT in Sep 2025 (via Fierce Pharma); no party has confirmed it, so no value or buyer is printed. PolyPeptide, as of Oct 16, 2026: 87.59% of the shares were tendered by the Oct 12 close (definitive result), well over the 66⅔% minimum, and the offer was declared successful. A second acceptance window runs Oct 19 to Oct 30, and closing still waits on regulators.
Sources: Cabot Microelectronics on KMG Chemicals, Aug 15, 2018, and completion, Nov 15, 2018; Merck KGaA on the Versum definitive agreement, Apr 12, 2019; Versum Materials and Merck KGaA completion, SEC EX-99.1, Oct 7, 2019; Cambrex 8-K on the Permira agreement, Aug 7, 2019, and completion 8-K, Dec 4, 2019; Fierce Pharma, citing the FT, on a reported Cambrex sale process, Sep 9, 2025; Lonza on the LSI sale to Bain Capital and Cinven, Feb 8, 2021, and completion, Jul 2, 2021; Entegris releases on CMC Materials, Dec 14, 2021 and Jul 6, 2022; Catalent on the Novo Holdings agreement, Feb 5, 2024; Catalent 8-K on completion, Dec 18, 2024; Johnson Matthey on the sale of Catalyst Technologies, May 22, 2025; Honeywell Technologies completion of JM Catalyst Technologies, Jul 17, 2026; Samsung Biologics all-cash offer for PolyPeptide, Jul 20, 2026; Samsung Peptide interim result, via PolyPeptide, Oct 13 and Oct 16, 2026.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com100
AGA·DWG / SHEET 101 · WHO'S STRUGGLING · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
WHO'S STRUGGLING, 2024 TO 2026
Five Western businesses posting weak numbers or closing since 2024. The warning signs: a layoff notice, idle-plant costs, and a plant sold for €5m.
BUSINESS
OWNER
WHAT HAPPENED
DATE
EUROAPI (generic and Sanofi-legacy API)
Listed, Paris
H1 2026 sales -13.5%; core EBITDA 5.8%; idle costs €11.1m; Brindisi sold at €5m EV with €60m of transition support; 2026 guided down ~10%
WARN for 69 jobs; unfunded retooling and "heavy debt load" cited; then bought in June to "preserve domestic production capacity"
Mar to Jun 2026
PMC Biogenix, Memphis, TN
PMC Group
Oleochemicals plant closing, 172 jobs; the 2024 plan had moved a new line to South Korea
WARN Mar 3, 2026
3M fluorochemicals
3M
Exit of ~$1.3bn of PFAS sales by end-2025; Dyneon Gendorf handed to Capmont, undisclosed
Dec 2022 to May 2026
WORTH KNOWING
Generic API with no gate
EUROAPI's 5.8% margin and a €5m plant sale are what a reactor set without a permit or a skill earns in 2026.
WORTH KNOWING
Debt on a permitted site
VanDeMark had the permit and still filed a WARN. The buyer wanted the permit; the lender didn't fund the retooling.
WORTH KNOWING
The parent's portfolio call
3M and Dow each left a line of chemistry for a reason that had nothing to do with the site. The site's next owner sets the price.
Sources: EUROAPI H1 2026 press release, Jul 29, 2026; The Chemical Engineer on Dow Barry, Jul 15, 2025; C&EN editorial on VanDeMark and PMC Biogenix closures, Mar 13, 2026; PE Professional on Comvest and VanDeMark, Apr 24, 2019; Pulse 2.0 on Valiant Energy Management's purchase, Jun 23, 2026; C&EN, Mar 13, 2026; 3M on its PFAS manufacturing exit, Dec 20, 2022; 3M FY2025 10-K; Q4 2025 and Q2 2026 earnings exhibits; European Rubber Journal on 3M, Dyneon and Capmont, Jun 4, 2026.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com101
AGA·DWG / SHEET 102 · DATES TO WATCH · AS OF OCT 16, 2026
WHAT WOULD CHANGE MY MIND · DATES TO WATCH
Eight dates between now and next spring will test my ranking. Each one is on that segment's call sheet.
A merchant peptide supply contract from Lilly or Novo running past 2032, disclosed
Sponsor and CDMO releases
Sources: Samsung Biologics all-cash offer for PolyPeptide, Jul 20, 2026; Samsung Peptide interim result, via PolyPeptide, Oct 13 and Oct 16, 2026; Cambrex CEO transition release, Oct 1, 2026; DEA Established Aggregate Production Quotas for 2026, 91 FR 287, Jan 5, 2026; DEA release Jan 9, 2026; Latham & Watkins on the BIOSECURE Act, Dec 2025; Holland & Knight on the 1260H listing, Jun 16, 2026; Army.mil on the TNT contract to REPKON USA-Defense, Nov 8, 2024; Army 155mm contracts, Sep 10, 2024; Siegfried media releases, Jan 27 and Apr 24, 2026; SK Capital via Business Wire, May 1, 2026; Bachem H1 2026 release, Jul 30, 2026; EPA SOCMI NSPS and HON final rule, May 16, 2024; EPA proposed rule on RMP, 91 FR 8970, Feb 24, 2026; EPA proposed reconsideration of the sterilizer rule, 91 FR 12700, Mar 17, 2026; Proclamation 11041, 91 FR 44719, Jul 16, 2026; DoD Comptroller FY2026 P-1 procurement exhibit; Defence-blog on the FY2027 request, Apr 22, 2026; SIA CHIPS investment tracker, updated Sep 22, 2026; Fierce Pharma on Lilly's $6bn Huntsville, AL API plant, Dec 9, 2025.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com102
AGA·DWG / SHEET 103 · METHOD · AS OF OCT 11, 2026
BACK MATTER · METHOD
Public sources only, one as-of date, and every soft number labeled as soft.
Sources: company releases and filings, the Federal Register and govinfo, EPA, DEA, DoD and USGS documents, BLS QCEW, company sites, trade press where marked, and our Electronic Chemicals Field Guide, as of Oct 11, 2026.
The private middle: where a company prints nothing, I used its regulator's record: an RMP or HON registration, a DEA bulk-manufacturer notice, a WARN filing, an accreditation scope.
Judgment: labeled as mine, with no numbers on it. Arithmetic I did is marked "my arithmetic."
Not printed: any valuation a party didn't state, any multiple nobody printed, and anything about a live sale process beyond that it was reported.
HOW I BUILT IT
Multiples appear only where a party to the deal stated them, with who said it: Grace, Orica, Anupam and Siegfried for US sites; Indorama, Johnson Matthey and H.B. Fuller for adjacent businesses; the mega-deal sponsors in the tape's appendix group. Press-reported multiples would be labeled with the outlet; none made the tape. Every other number names its company, document and date in the source line at the foot of its sheet.
WHAT I KEPT SOFT
Labeled where used
SOCMA is a survey; Deepak's revenue is a secondary summary; two Korean figures are via press; NorthStar's figures are headlines; BIOVECTRA's $925m is "agreed."
WHAT I COULDN'T FIND
Said so on the sheet
No segment has a public US size. One reference-material maker's owner, SACHEM's revenue, HPPC contract terms and most site headcounts are marked not found.
Proclamation 11041, Regulatory Relief for Certain Stationary Sources To Promote American Chemical Manufacturing Security, Jul 9, 2026; 91 FR 44719, Jul 16, 2026
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com107
AGA·DWG / SHEET 108 · GLOSSARY
BACK MATTER · GLOSSARY 2 OF 4 · CHEMISTRY AND PROCESS TERMS
The terms behind the nine skills, from fluorine to silicon.
Skill A kind of hard chemistry a plant has the equipment, people and permits to run. Some are a chemistry, some a condition, some a permit. This guide has nine (sheet 4).
Custom synthesis Making a molecule to a customer's specification, usually under a multi-year contract.
Toll processing Running a customer's recipe for a fee per batch.
Title V The operating permit under the Clean Air Act for a major source.
Building block A small molecule sold by the gram or kilo, often from a catalog, as the first step of a route.
Starting material The named compound where a drug's GMP route begins.
AHF Anhydrous hydrogen fluoride, the start of nearly all fluorine chemistry.
Fluorspar The mined ore (calcium fluoride). The US imports 100% of what it uses; China mined 60% of the world's supply in 2025.
F2 Elemental fluorine gas. Direct fluorination makes perfluorinated products; a 1,000 lb inventory triggers an EPA Risk Management Plan.
SF4, DAST, XtalFluor Deoxofluorination reagents that swap an oxygen for a fluorine.
Halex Halogen exchange: swapping chlorine for fluorine on an aromatic ring with a fluoride salt.
ECF Electrochemical fluorination in liquid HF, the Simons process 3M used for its fluids and surfactants.
Vapor-phase fluorination High-temperature, high-pressure fluorination in corrosion-resistant reactors.
HFO Hydrofluoroolefin, the low-warming refrigerant family (Opteon, Solstice) replacing HFCs under the AIM Act.
LiPF6 Lithium hexafluorophosphate, the main lithium-ion electrolyte salt.
Two-phase immersion cooling Data-center cooling where servers sit in a boiling fluorinated fluid.
Grignard reagent Carbon-magnesium-halide, made from magnesium metal and an organic halide in ether.
Organozinc The milder cousin of the Grignard: tolerates more functional groups.
Organolithium Butyllithium and relatives: strong bases sold as hydrocarbon solutions.
Borohydride, borane Reducing and hydroboration reagents. Water-reactive.
Metal alkyl, TEAL Triethylaluminum, the pyrophoric co-catalyst for polyethylene and polypropylene.
MAO, MMAO Aluminoxane activators for single-site polyolefin catalysts.
Metallocene A metal sandwiched between ring ligands; the single-site catalyst itself.
Homogeneous catalyst A soluble palladium, platinum, rhodium, ruthenium, or iridium complex for coupling and hydrogenation.
ALD and CVD precursor A volatile metal-organic compound shipped in a bubbler or cylinder for thin-film deposition in a fab.
Pyrophoric (Division 4.2) Ignites within five minutes of contact with air, no spark needed.
Dangerous when wet (Division 4.3) Catches fire or gives off more than a liter of flammable gas per kilo per hour on contact with water.
Transfilling Moving a pyrophoric or air-sensitive product from plant to bubbler, cylinder, or ISO tanker without exposing it.
Chlorosilane A silicon compound with silicon-chlorine bonds.
Direct process Copper-catalyzed reaction of silicon metal with methyl chloride to make methylchlorosilanes.
Siloxane The silicon-oxygen backbone made by hydrolyzing chlorosilanes.
Silicone Siloxane finished into fluids, resins, elastomers, gels, emulsions, and adhesives.
HCR, LSR, RTV High-consistency rubber, liquid silicone rubber, room-temperature vulcanizing: the three elastomer families a US silicone site typically runs.
Silane coupling agent An organofunctional alkoxysilane that bonds an inorganic surface to an organic polymer.
Silylating agent A reagent that puts a silyl protecting group on an alcohol or amine during organic synthesis.
TEOS Tetraethoxysilane: a silica source for coatings, binders, and semiconductor dielectric deposition.
Definitions are mine, simplified.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com108
AGA·DWG / SHEET 109 · GLOSSARY
BACK MATTER · GLOSSARY 3 OF 4 · CHEMISTRY AND PROCESS TERMS
The terms behind the nine skills, from high pressure to high purity.
Hydrosilylation Platinum-catalyzed addition of a silicon-hydride across a double bond.
EUV dry-resist precursor The vapor-phase precursor for Lam Research's dry photoresist process.
Medical-grade silicone Silicone made under device-grade quality systems for implants and drug delivery.
UN2988 The shipping entry for water-reactive, flammable, corrosive chlorosilanes: Packing Group I, forbidden on passenger aircraft, one liter on cargo aircraft.
Alkoxylation Adding ethylene oxide or propylene oxide onto an alcohol, amine, or acid under pressure to build a surfactant, polyol, or glycol ether.
Ethylene oxide (EO) The two-carbon epoxide feedstock: flammable, toxic, a listed carcinogen, and the reason this segment carries its own federal air rules.
Closed-loop EO EO piped from a supplier or on-site unit straight into the reactor, never handled in the open.
Catalytic hydrogenation Adding hydrogen across a double bond, nitro, nitrile, or carbonyl over a metal catalyst under pressure.
Reductive amination Carbonyl plus amine plus hydrogen in one pressure step.
Hydroformylation, carbonylation Olefin plus syngas over rhodium or cobalt to make an aldehyde; inserting carbon monoxide to make acids and esters.
Pressure rating A vessel's design pressure. Pressure Chemical's high-pressure train runs 1,800 to 4,500 psi; a glass-lined pharma reactor is typically 150 to 250 psi.
Hastelloy, nickel clad, Inconel Corrosion-resistant alloys for pressure vessels where stainless steel pits.
HON The Hazardous Organic NESHAP for synthetic organic chemical plants.
Fenceline monitoring Continuous sampling at the plant boundary with an action level (0.2 micrograms per cubic meter for EO) and public posting.
Specialty monomer The small molecule that polymerizes (acrylates, methacrylates, epoxides), made in small lots, inhibited, often shipped cold.
Oligomer A short pre-polymer that carries the mechanical properties of a UV-cured film.
Photoinitiator The molecule that absorbs light and starts the cure.
UV and EB curing Cure by ultraviolet light or electron beam instead of heat or solvent.
Prepreg Fiber pre-impregnated with a resin system, stored frozen, laid up and cured by the airframer.
Resin system The matrix chemistry in a composite. The formulation is the IP, and it is what gets qualified.
Spec lock A customer document that fixes the material, the process, and the source.
AS9100, NADCAP, MIL-SPEC The aerospace quality standard, the accreditation of special processes, and US military material specifications.
ISO 13485 The quality standard for medical device materials.
Build rate Aircraft per month on a program. The single largest driver of prepreg volume.
Nitration Adding a nitro group with mixed nitric and sulfuric acid.
Nitrate ester Nitroglycerin, nitrocellulose, and relatives.
Phosgene A toxic gas made on site from carbon monoxide and chlorine, never shipped in quantity.
HCN and sodium cyanide Hydrogen cyanide (a PSM-listed gas) and its salt, the gold-leach reagent.
Diazotization Turning an aromatic amine into an unstable diazonium salt.
Azide Shock-sensitive nitrogen chemistry for airbag inflators and amine precursors.
Energetic material Explosives (TNT, RDX, HMX, IMX-104), propellants, pyrotechnics.
IMX-104 The insensitive explosive fill made at Holston: about 5 million pounds a year against a 13 million pound plan.
Ammonium perchlorate The solid-rocket oxidizer. AMPAC in Cedar City, Utah, is the North American maker; NewMarket paid about $700m for it.
RMP, PSM, HON EPA's Risk Management Program, OSHA's process safety standard, and the HON air-toxics rule.
High-purity process chemical (HPPC) Sulfuric, nitric, phosphoric and hydrofluoric acids, IPA, ammonium hydroxide, peroxide, at ppb or ppt metals.
Definitions are mine, simplified.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com109
AGA·DWG / SHEET 110 · GLOSSARY
BACK MATTER · GLOSSARY 4 OF 4 · CHEMISTRY AND PROCESS TERMS
The terms behind the nine skills, from licensed handling to modality synthesis.
Trace-metal grade A purity sold against a metals specification in parts per billion or trillion, measured by ICP-MS, not by assay.
Certified reference material (CRM) A standard sold with a certified value and an uncertainty.
ISO 17034 The accreditation for CRM producers. ISO/IEC 17025 is the testing-lab standard beside it.
TMAH Tetramethylammonium hydroxide, the developer in photolithography and a zeolite template.
Structure-directing agent The quaternary ammonium template that sets a zeolite's pore shape.
Total Chemical Management On-site and off-site chemical logistics, blending and analysis sold with the acid.
Karl Fischer reagent The titrant for water content. GFS and Honeywell's Hydranal line are the US and German names.
Catalog house A seller of thousands of SKUs in gram to kilogram packs: Merck's 300,000 products, Spectrum's 45,000, American Elements' 35,000.
Aggregator A platform that routes orders to other makers' stock.
Fab adjacency An HPPC plant sited near the fab it serves, qualified into the recipe.
Schedule I to V The five federal control tiers. Schedule II (oxycodone, fentanyl, amphetamine, methylphenidate) carries the heaviest manufacturing controls.
Bulk manufacturer registration The DEA registration to make a Schedule I or II substance.
Drug code The four-digit DEA code for each basic class: 9143 oxycodone, 9801 fentanyl, 1100 amphetamine.
Aggregate production quota (APQ) DEA's national annual ceiling for each Schedule I and II class, in grams of anhydrous base.
Manufacturing and procurement quota The per-site allocation to make, or to buy bulk for conversion.
ANPP, phenylacetone, thebaine Schedule II intermediates and precursors with their own codes.
HPAPI Highly potent active ingredient: an occupational exposure limit in the low micrograms per cubic meter or below.
OEL and OEB The exposure limit (a number, µg/m³ or ng/m³ over a shift) and the band it falls in.
Isolator Sealed glove-box process equipment. The hardware that makes an OEL below about 1 µg/m³ achievable in a chemical plant.
ADC linker-payload The cytotoxic small molecule plus linker that's later conjugated to an antibody.
Radioligand therapy (RLT) A targeting molecule carrying a therapeutic isotope.
NRC byproduct license The site-specific license to possess radioactive material, issued only if equipment is "adequate to protect health" and staff are "qualified by training and experience."
SPPS Solid-phase peptide synthesis: the chain is built one protected amino acid at a time on a resin bead, then cleaved off with acid.
LPPS and hybrid The same couplings in solution, usually on short fragments; cheaper per kilo, harder at length.
Fmoc and Boc The two temporary amine protecting groups. Fmoc comes off with mild base; Boc with acid, classically anhydrous HF, which limits where it's run.
Protected amino acid An amino acid with its amine and side chain blocked.
Cleavage cocktail The trifluoroacetic acid mix that releases the peptide and strips protection.
Preparative RP-HPLC Production-scale reversed-phase chromatography that removes deletion sequences.
Lyophilization Freeze-drying the purified API to a stable powder.
Phosphoramidite The activated nucleoside building block for oligonucleotide synthesis, one per base, with modified versions for therapeutic oligos.
Mol of synthesis How oligo plants quote capacity. Nitto Avecia's Milford site went from 1.2 mol to 3.0 mol in 2017; one mol of a 20-mer is several kilos of API.
ASO, siRNA, guide RNA Antisense, small interfering RNA, and CRISPR guide RNA: the three oligo API classes Agilent named for its $725m expansion.
Ionizable lipid The patented, custom-made lipid in the four-lipid set that forms a nanoparticle around mRNA.
CMC development vs commercial API Bachem's two lines: pre-approval development work versus multi-year supply of approved molecules.
Definitions are mine, simplified.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com110
AGA·DWG / SHEET 111 · THE RESEARCH AGENDA · AS OF OCT 19, 2026
THE RESEARCH AGENDA · WHAT I'VE PUBLISHED, WHAT'S NEXT, WHAT I'M THINKING ABOUT
This is my second Field Guide. Here's what's out, what's on the bench, and what I'm still chewing on. Tell me what to build first.
It's a plan, not a promise, and the order is yours to influence. Reply with the one you want most, or a topic that isn't here. Paid subscribers and founding members get the deciding vote.
STATUS
PIECE
WHAT IT'S ABOUT
WHEN
PUBLISHED
Electronic Chemicals
Field Guide 1. The ~$73B of materials that make every chip, and where a financial buyer can build. This guide links to it wherever a skill sells into a fab.
Aug 13, 2026
PUBLISHED
M&A Still Finds a Way
Essay. Capital didn't pause this year, it got pickier: spec-driven, domestic, hard-to-copy assets still trade.
Sep 11, 2026
PUBLISHED
What It Takes to Make a Raptor Move Like That
Essay, F-22 part 1. A thousand little shops, and the coatings that keep the F-22 flying.
Oct 7, 2026
PUBLISHED
We Reshored the Buildings
Essay. Ten years of US factory construction, and about a third less chemistry.
Oct 14, 2026
PUBLISHED
Custom Chemistry Makers
Field Guide 2, this guide. What a buyer pays for in a US custom chemistry plant.
Oct 24, 2026
NEXT
F-22, part 2
Essay. The planes before the Raptor, the Raptor itself, and how it got made.
Tentative
NEXT
F-22, part 3
Essay. Where the materials are likely going next, labeled as speculation.
Tentative
NEXT
The F-22 materials map
Deep dive. Mills to formulators to fabricators to primes, with public supplier counts.
Tentative
NEXT
Where's the Chemistry in $100 of AI Capex?
Essay. A widely shared chart of $100 of AI spending has no line for chemistry. The ~$73B of chip materials sits one step back.
Tentative
PARKED
Rates Don't Print Oil
Essay. Rates can cool demand and buy a breather on prices. They don't put missing barrels back.
No date
THINKING ABOUT
The Hormuz quarter
Idea. What multiple do you pay on earnings a shipping chokepoint created? From public company results only.
Not scheduled
Correct me: a filing, a permit, or a transcript line that moves a number changes the guide. Corrections are credited.
Source: my Content Calendar, Oct 19, 2026. Published dates are the Substack dates. Anything marked next, parked or thinking about is tentative, and the order follows reader demand.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com111
AGA·DWG / SHEET 112 · GO DEEPER
GO DEEPER · PRIVATE QUESTIONS, AND HOW TO ARGUE WITH ME
Want to go deeper, or on a question this guide doesn't answer? That's the private version.
The published guide is the public read. The private one is a question you name, worked at the depth of this guide, on your timeline.
FOR A SPONSOR
A screen by skill
Which US sites hold the permit and the customers you'd pay for, and what each would take to buy.
FOR AN OWNER
Positioning before a process
Which row and step you're in, which buyer type pays most for it, and what to fix in the year before you sell.
FOR A CORPORATE
A market study
Size, players, and the forces for one segment, at the depth of this guide, on your question.
FOR A BANKER
A second read on positioning
The grid row, the step, and the buyer types that paid, before the book goes out.
HOW I WORK
Public record first, then operator conversations, then a position you can argue with. Nothing from a client engagement ever appears in a Field Guide.
Private work is scoped and priced to the question. Sector focus: specialty chemicals, advanced materials and life-science inputs.
Source: August Grace read, Oct 19, 2026 (judgment, not a document).
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com112
AGA·DWG / SHEET 113 · SUBSCRIBE
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WHO READS THIS · FINANCIAL BUYERS · CORPORATE STRATEGY AND M&A · OPERATORS AND BOARDS
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Curiously Optimistic, by Bob Girton · curiouslyoptimistic.com · My open research notebook on chemicals, materials, growth, teams, and AI in industrials.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.com113
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Proclamation 11041, Regulatory Relief for Certain Stationary Sources To Promote American Chemical Manufacturing Security, Jul 9, 2026; 91 FR 44719, Jul 16, 2026
DoD, DOD awards $192.5 million to establish domestic manufacturing capabilities for critical defense chemicals (incl. $86.2m to Lacamas Laboratories), Feb 1, 2024
PolyPeptide on the interim result of the Samsung Biologics offer (87.59% tendered, provisional Oct 13, definitive Oct 16; offer declared successful; additional acceptance period Oct 19 to Oct 30), Oct 16, 2026
Appendix pages aren't counted in the sheet numbers. Links opened between Oct 9 and Oct 12, 2026.
August Grace Advisory · curiouslyoptimistic.comA-17
The end of the guide · two good next steps
I wrote this down to work out what a custom chemistry plant is really worth. I'm still working on it, and I'd like to hear where you see it differently.
Curiously Optimistic is my open research notebook on chemicals, materials, growth, teams, and AI in industrials. Subscribe to get new Field Guides as they publish, or if you're working on something more specific, I'd be glad to talk live.